Nate Silver notes that about one-third of Floridians have already voted in the GOP presidential primary.
“Since Mr. Gingrich only led Mr. Romney for a few fleeting days in the polls, that means that Mr. Romney should have banked an advantage, and that Mr. Gingrich would need to win by perhaps 5 or 10 points on Election Day to claim the state. That could also lessen the impact of late-breaking developments in the news cycle — like Mr. Gingrich receiving the endorsement of Herman Cain.”