A new WBUR poll in Boston finds John Connolly barely leading Martin Walsh by two points, 41% to 39%.
Archives for October 2013
Two Big Political Problems, Two Different Reactions
First Read: “Combining the two biggest political stories over the past week, we have
this question: What has been the more significant disaster — the
problems associated with the federal Obamacare website, or the state of
the Republican Party after the shutdown? There is one important
difference between the two stories. While the Obama administration is
throwing every resource to fix its website issue, is anyone inside the
GOP trying to prevent an all-out ideological civil war from breaking
out? In fact, it seems to be just the opposite: Gas is being thrown on
the internal GOP fire.”
Can Obama Close a Trade Deal?
“Some presidents have a natural affinity for trade deals, but in the first year of his administration, President Obama seemed to many observers like he couldn’t care less. He appointed a likable Dallas mayor without much experience in the field to be his trade representative and gave him very little negotiating to do,” Politico reports.
“Four years later, Obama has a chance to create the biggest free-trade deal in history — a pact involving 12 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, dwarfing NAFTA — and remaking global trade policy for a generation.”
“The question is, can Obama actually do it? There’s plenty of reason for doubt.”
Congressional Disapproval at All-Time High
A new CBS News poll finds 85% of Americans disapprove of the way Congress does its job — the highest percentage ever recorded since CBS began asking the question in 1977. Just 9% approve, matching the all-time low recorded two years ago.
Kasich Does End Run Around Republicans
Jill Lawrence:
“Ohio Gov. John Kasich has kicked up a political storm by circumventing
his legislature to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act.
Conservatives don’t like Obamacare, the expansion, or the techniques by
which their determined Republican governor made it happen, and they’re
already challenging him in court. Yet Kasich may have strengthened his
hand going into his 2014 reelection race. And should he decide to pursue
higher ambitions, a solid victory next year in his purple presidential
swing state could hasten forgiveness from GOP primary voters — or a
nominee in search of a ticketmate — in 2016.”
Majority Favor Legalization of Pot
A new Gallup Poll finds that a majority of Americans support legalizing marijuana — by a 58% to 39% margin
McAuliffe Still in Front
A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Terry McAuliffe (D) leading Ken Cuccinelli (R) by seven points, 46% to 39%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 10%.
Tight Senate Primary in Hawaii
A new Civil Beat poll in Hawaii finds Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) barely ahead of Democratic primary challenger Colleen Hanbusa (D), 38% to 36%.
7 Republican Senators Most Vulnerable to a Primary
Roll Call: “Hard-line conservatives are rising out of the ashes of a weekslong government shutdown, emboldened by the possibility of adding to their ranks in the Senate next year — whether by picking up Democrat-held seats or taking out Republican incumbents.”
Lee Facing Backlash Over Government Shutdown
“When Mike Lee toppled longtime Republican Sen. Robert F. Bennett here in 2010, it was the tea party’s first big triumph. But now, after a 16-day government shutdown, it’s Lee who faces a revolt within his own party,” the Washington Post reports.
“Lee’s approval ratings in Utah have cratered, and prominent Republicans and local business executives are openly discussing the possibility of mounting a primary challenge against him. Top Republicans are also maneuvering to redesign the party’s nomination system in a way that would likely make it more difficult for Lee to win reelection in 2016.”
Wall Street Journal: “Critics in the Republican Party, including former governors and
sitting legislative leaders, openly blame Mr. Lee for helping chart a
course they say weakened the party’s standing nationally and dented a
state economy reliant on tourists drawn to its national parks.”
Will Ryan Cut a Deal?
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) “faces a crucial moment in his political career as the formal House-Senate budget conference gets underway,” The Hill reports.
“Those who want to see a deal — a group that includes deficit hawks, appropriators, defense and farm lobbyists — say the popular House Budget Committee chairman can bargain. They argue that if anyone could sell a compromise to the restive House GOP, it is Ryan, and say there is enough wiggle room to do a deal.”
Sebelius in a Firestorm
New York Times: “The first, and perhaps most painful, call for Kathleen Sebelius to resign as President Obama’s health secretary came this month from an old family friend: Senator Pat Roberts, Republican of Kansas, who once boasted of a ‘special relationship’ with Ms. Sebelius, forged when he worked for her father-in-law.”
“Now Ms. Sebelius, the former Kansas governor who is the public face of Mr. Obama’s health care overhaul, is facing a barrage of criticism over the problem-plagued rollout of its online insurance exchange. For Republicans, still reeling from their failed “defund Obamacare” strategy and government shutdown, she has proved an easy target.”
Politico: “Kathleen Sebelius may be irreplaceable — in that she cannot be replaced. Not because President Obama wouldn’t be able to find someone else to do the job, or that anyone’s too pleased with the launch of the Obamacare website. But the White House and Democrats on the Hill know a potential confirmation fight would be so torturous and difficult that they’re better off sticking with the Health and Human Services secretary they’ve got, despite all that’s gone wrong on her watch.”
White House Official Fired for Tweeting Under False Name
Josh Rogin: “A White House national security official was fired last week after being caught as the mystery Tweeter who has been tormenting the foreign policy community with insulting comments and revealing internal Obama administration information for over two years.”
“Jofi Joseph, a director in the non-proliferation section of the National Security Staff at the White House, has been surreptitiously tweeting under the moniker @natsecwonk, a Twitter feed famous inside Washington policy circles since it began in February, 2011 until it was shut down last week.”
GOP Unfavorables at All-Time High
A new CNN/ORC poll finds that 64% of Americans say they have an unfavorable view of the Republican party, an all-time high dating back to 1992 when CNN first asked the question. Only 30% say they hold a favorable view of the party.
Meanwhile, 56% say they have an unfavorable view of the tea party movement, another record high in CNN polling.
Will Independents Jolt the Two-Party System?
Joe Klein: “I’ve been skeptical about 3rd parties in the past. The best of them — the Populists, Ross Perot (at least when it came to budgetary matters) — tend to have their hot ideas co-opted by the Democrats or Republicans. That may still be true…although we’ve seen everything else in society fragmented, niched and marketized.”
“It may be that we won’t see a Third Party, but a rash of Independents breaking out across the country in 2014…. We’ve been doing this two-candidate thing for a long time, but we’ve reached a point of paralysis-a very un-American state of being-and something is going to come along and shock the system back to life.”
Democratic Fundraising Surges
Roll Call: “It’s hard to say which should trouble Republican Party leaders the most right now: the sour mood among GOP donors, or the money suddenly swelling Democratic campaign and super PAC coffers.”
“Not only have the Democratic campaign committees that back House and Senate candidates outraised their GOP counterparts, but unrestricted super PACs that support Democrats have pulled in close to three times what GOP super PACs have so far.”
Did the Shutdown Help Immigration Reform?
Roll Call: “Advocates of an immigration overhaul may see a silver lining in the recent 16-day government shutdown for their cause in the House, sensing that Republicans will want to win back some of the popular support they lost over the past month.”
“But House GOP insiders remain skeptical that the fractured Republican
caucus will be able to get something done on the issue anytime soon.”
One Glitch Away from Taking the House
Jon Stewart: “All that stands in the way of Democratic electoral success is a mildly competent implementation of the health care policy they battled so hard to keep.”
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