The Upshot now gives Republicans a 67% chance of winning control of the Senate.
“Recent polls are one big reason. As we discussed last week, the latest evidence from Georgia has been favorable for Republicans. In West Virginia, polling continues to suggest that Natalie Tennant, the Democratic secretary of state, is a long shot to win. In Alaska — an important state for Democrats to hold — a Rasmussen poll released on Monday suggested the race was close. (Polls from Rasmussen were Republican-leaning in 2012, but these house effects are not very consistent between cycles. This cycle, we estimate Rasmussen polls have been perhaps a little more Republican-leaning than those of the typical pollster, but not much.)”