A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Sen. Mark Warner (D) leading challenger Ed Gillespie (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48T to 39% among likely voters, with Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis at 6%.
Archives for September 2014
Conversation with Sam Wang
Sam Wang, founder of the Princeton Election Consortium, joins us on the Political Wire podcast for a discussion of his midterm election forecasting model which has consistently shown Democrats likely to retain control of the Senate.
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Special thanks to the Cook Political Report for sponsoring this episode. If you aren’t reading it, you’re missing a lot.
Corbett Still Trails in Pennsylvania
A new Keystone Report/Magellan Strategies poll in Pennsylvania finds Tom Wolf (D) leading Gov. Tom Corbett (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%.
Other recent polls have shown Wolf leading by a much larger margin.
How Conservatives View Liberals
The Heritage Foundation — “which prides itself as being the intellectual backbone of the conservative movement” — held a conference on the future of liberalism, MSNBC reports.
Heritage’s David Azerrad set the tone by describing the philosophy of the left: “Give up your economic freedom, give up your political freedom, and you will be rewarded with license. It’s all sex all the time. It’s not just the sex itself — it’s the permission to indulge.”
Brown Still Headed for a Landslide in California
A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Gov. Jerry Brown (D) holding a commanding 54% to 33% lead among likely voters over challenger Neel Kashkari (R).
Coakley Leads By Double-Digits in Massachusetts
A new WBUR poll in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) maintains “a stable lead” in the five-way race for governor, beating out Charlie Baker (R) by 10 points, 46% to 36%.
Candidate Says He’s Being ‘Ambushed’ by Media
Embattled Laguna Beach City Council candidate Jon Madison says he is being “ambushed” over evidence that he falsified his age, educational and work histories on his campaign website, the Laguna Beach Coastline Pilot reports.
Said Madison: “I am who I am. I don’t think my educational history or my age or voter registration has anything to do with what I’m trying to do in this city.”
He added: “This is my first rodeo, and I’m disappointed that the media are bringing me down.”
GOP Accidently Reveals Secret Donor List
An error by the Republican Governors Association “recently resulted in the disclosure of exactly the kind of information that political committees given tax-exempt status normally keep secret, namely their corporate donors and the size of their checks,” the New York Times reports.
“The trove of documents… sheds light on the secretive world of 501(c)(4) political groups, just as the battle over their future intensifies. Unlike the Republican Governors Association, the tax-exempt Republican Governors Public Policy Committee is not required to disclose anything, even as donors hit the links, rub shoulders and trade policy talk with governors and their top staff members.”
Pryor Has Slight Edge in Arkansas
A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll shows Sen. Mark Pryor (D) just ahead of challenger Tom Cotton (R), 45% to 43%, with 7% undecided.
Very interesting: “Among voters who consider health care their top issue, Pryor leads Cotton 50% to 39%”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“He’s basically furniture in the Senate, and the people in Kansas know that. You could give the average Kansan 24 hours to come up with something Pat Roberts has done in the Senate, and after 24 hours, even the crickets would be standing there befuddled.”
— GOP strategist John Weaver, quoted by the Washington Post.
GOP Candidate Voted in Two States
Illinois state representative candidate Kathy Myalls (R) “has voted in both Illinois and Wisconsin in recent years,” the Chicago Sun Times reports.
“In one case, she cast a vote in a primary election in Illinois. Then just three months later, records show she voted in Wisconsin to cast a ballot in the state’s recall election… Myalls then voted in Wisconsin’s presidential general election in 2012 before returning to Illinois to vote the following spring. ”
GOP Keeps Election Nationalized with Terror Talk
First Read: “If it feels like 2002-2004 all over again due to ISIS and the U.S. military campaign against it, well, that’s also reflected on the campaign trail and in the TV ads, especially on the Republican side…”
“There are two reasons why these anti-terror messages from Republicans are beginning to pop up on the campaign trail. The first: It’s embedded in the party’s DNA. Since the beginning of the Cold War, the GOP’s first instinct has always been to assert how it’s tougher and stronger on communism/terrorism than the Democratic Party is… The second reason: Republicans want to keep the midterms a nationalized election. And so when the national conversation turns away from health care and the economy to national security, the GOP’s TV ads and campaign messages will follow. Why do they want it nationalized? Take one look at the right track/wrong track poll numbers coupled with the president’s job rating. The more local this campaign is, the less likely the GOP wins the Senate or adds to their House majority.”
Hillary Needs Obama
Politico: “The joint appearance highlighted a reality for the current president and his former secretary of state: Her political needs aren’t always in sync with his, but more often than not their interests do align.”
“Hillary Clinton needs to keep Obama’s supporters behind her if she runs for president in 2016… Some Obama advisers, meanwhile, see Clinton as a lifeline — the best chance the lame-duck Democrat has to preserve his legacy, particularly Obamacare, after the open-seat election in 2016.”
Warner Headed for Big Win in Virginia
A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia finds Sen. Mark Warner (D) holds a 19-point lead over challenger Ed Gillespie (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 27%.
Ginsburg Says She Isn’t Retiring
Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg told Elle magazine that says she’s not going to retire as long as she can still “do the job full steam.”
Said Ginsburg: “Who do you think President Obama could appoint at this very day, given the boundaries that we have? If I resign any time this year, he could not successfully appoint anyone I would like to see on the court… So anybody who thinks that if I step down, Obama could appoint someone like me, they’re misguided. As long as I can do the job full steam…. I think I’ll recognize when the time comes that I can’t any longer. But now I can.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Can I say that without getting in trouble like Gov. Romney. The 47 percent is true. It’s bigger now.”
— Nevada congressional candidate Crescent Hardy (R), quoted by TPM.
Man Says He Was Fired After Describing Palin Brawl
“A man who went on national television and told how family members of former Gov. Sarah Palin were involved in a brawl at an Anchorage birthday party says he was fired from a his job at a local paving company after speaking up. Eric Thompson, who appeared on ABC’s Good Morning America last week, posted a video on YouTube Tuesday seeking work,” the Alaska Dispatch News reports.
Still Tight in Georgia
A new Survey USA poll in Georgia finds David Perdue (R) barely leading Michelle Nunn (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45%.
In the race for governor, Jason Carter (D) edges Gov. Nathan Deal (R), 45% to 44%.
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