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Archives for July 2015

Koch Brothers Work to Build ‘Permanent Ground Force’

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Washington Post: “The summer canvassing is part of a mission that consumes the political network backed by the billionaire industrialists Charles and David Koch that plans to spend $889 million in the run-up to the 2016 elections. The network’s resources are financing a host of activities… But one of the prime objectives could have a direct impact on Election Day 2016: to create a permanent ground force powered by a vast trove of data, replicating the kind of infrastructure that helped President Obama win reelection.”

“Already, roughly 1,000 full-time staffers are working for Koch network organizations such as AFP, Concerned Veterans for America and the Libre Initiative — more than double the number four years ago, according to officials.”

Trump Leads the Polls But Isn’t Very Popular

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Nate Silver: “Despite what you may have read elsewhere — or heard from the man himself — Donald Trump is not all that popular with Republican voters. Sure, he’s in first place in many polls. But Trump is near the back of the pack by another important measure… Trump’s favorability ratings among Republicans are barely better than break-even: 47 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable. Among the 17 Republican candidates, Trump’s net favorable rating, +4, ranks 13th, ahead of only Chris Christie, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki.”

“And yet, in these same polls, Trump is the first choice of an average of 20 percent of Republican voters — the highest in the field, ahead of Scott Walker (14 percent) and Jeb Bush (12 percent).”

Boehner Annoyed with Challenge to His Leadership

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Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) “brushed off a challenge to his leadership from Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC), but not without showing some irritation,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Said Boehner: “We’ve got a member here, a member there, who are off the reservation. No big deal.”

“But Mr. Boehner displayed flashes of annoyance when asked if the House should vote on the Meadows resolution. The provision must go through the House Rules Committee, where the members are chosen by Mr. Boehner and aren’t obligated to advance it.”

Top GOP Fundraiser Urges Kirk to Abandon Race

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“One of the Illinois GOP’s premiere fundraisers has called on U.S. Sen. Mark Kirk, R-Ill., to abandon his re-election race, saying it likely is unwinnable. The statement is spurring a flurry of phone calls and activity among worried Republicans,” according to Crain’s Chicago Business.

Said Ron Gidwidz: “His misstatements put him and the Illinois Republican Party in too much of a defensive position. I do not believe he will be a U.S. senator in 2017 and, as top of the ticket, he could cause collateral damage (to other Republican candidates). I call on him to step aside and allow other Republicans to seek his seat.”

Things are About to Get Crazy in Congress

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Greg Sargent: “Hillary Clinton has signaled that she hopes to run for president in part by painting the GOP-controlled Congress — and, by extension, the Republican Party — as a divisive, destructive, hidebound, reactionary force… And it looks as if the GOP Congress is set to hand Clinton a lot more material.”

“The recent period of calm (relative, of course) in Congress has perhaps led people to forget just how crazy things are going to get this fall.”

Politico: “Lawmakers have teed up a hellish final few months of 2015, as a series of high-stakes deadlines looms on everything from keeping the government open to doling out money for roads and then, for good measure, raising the federal government’s borrowing limit. It promises to be a major test of the Republican Party’s ability to govern as the GOP prepares to ask voters to continue one-party control of Congress…”

Republicans Brace for Trump in Debate

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“Next week’s Republican presidential debate in Cleveland marks not only the inaugural formal gathering of the expansive GOP field but the start of a new and unpredictable chapter in an already raucous 2016 race,” the Washington Post reports.

“Under the bright studio lights on the shores of Lake Erie on Aug. 6, ambitions will be showcased, positions staked, and Donald Trump, who has consumed the summer’s political headlines, will finally be confronted, face to face, by his rivals.”

How Gerrymandering Has Hurt Democrats

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A Smart Politics analysis finds there are 16 U.S. Senators who currently serve states with a majority of its U.S. House seats held by the opposing political party; only one of these 16 is a Republican – Mark Kirk of Illinois.

Over the last eight cycles dating back to 2000, only 14 Republicans have been elected to the U.S. Senate from states in which the opposing party won a majority of U.S. House seats that cycle.

Koch Brothers Freeze Out Donald Trump

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“The Koch brothers are freezing out Donald Trump from their influential political operation — denying him access to their state-of-the-art data and refusing to let him speak to their gatherings of grass-roots activists or major donors,” Politico reports.

“Despite a long and cordial relationship between the real estate showman and David Koch, as well as a raft of former Koch operatives who are now running Trump’s presidential campaign, the Koch political operation appears to have concluded that Trump is the wrong standard-bearer for the GOP.”

Trump Hides Divisions in Republican Party

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Rick Klein: “You can thank Donald Trump for taking away the attention from the clashes that could leave the GOP with more battle scars than anything the Donald has to offer. On Capitol Hill, talk of Reagan’s 11th Commandment is well past over, amid some of the worst intraparty fighting in this current era of Republican control of Congress. Sen. Ted Cruz is accusing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of lying to his colleagues. McConnell is accusing Sen. Mike Lee of secret alliances with outside groups aimed at pressuring fellow GOPers. And in the House, a surprise move by Rep. Mark Meadows (R-NC) leaves a rare formal motion to oust House Speaker John Boehner lingering through the August recess.”

“At a minimum, the breakdowns mean that we can pretty much close the books on meaningful accomplishments by the current Congress, with about three-quarters of the term still to go. It’s worth remembering that these divisions – the establishment wing’s continued never-ending struggles with tea party-aligned and a growing network of outside groups – are likely to impact the presidential primaries more than any damage Trump might do to his Republican rivals.”

Facebook Seeks to Play Big Role in 2016

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New York Times: “While it is no surprise that campaigns are devoting a greater share of their budget and energy on digital initiatives, Facebook, already a major player in past cycles, has been working to expand its digital dominance in the political realm.”

“Facebook — which has 189 million monthly users in the United States — has pitched its tools and services to every presidential campaign in the 2016 race, not to mention down-ballot races, to showcase new features as candidates seek to reach and recruit new supporters and potential donors. Some estimate that 2016 will usher in roughly $1 billion in online political advertising, and Facebook says it is on track to increase its revenue from previous cycles.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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