“When voters go to the polls in Kentucky and Mississippi on Nov. 3, The Associated Press will be launching experiments aimed at finding more accurate and less expensive ways to survey them. With funding from the Knight Foundation, the AP has hired GfK Custom Research to identify and survey voters online, instead of conducting a traditional exit poll where precinct-based interviewers ask voters to fill out questionnaires,” the AP reports.
Archives for October 2015
The New York Times has an interesting analysis of the presidential candidates’ speaking styles in this year’s presidential debates.
“DonaldTrump stands out as the simplest speaker by far and also one of the more positive. Though he is highly critical of his opponents and often rails against how terrible the world is today, he spends more time talking about how great America will be under a Trump administration. In the opposite corner of the matrix is Bernie Sanders, who prefers both complex language and dire descriptions.”
Norm Ornstein: “In every recent national poll of Republicans, including those with likely voters, with or without leaners, the breakdown is that the five main outsider candidates (Trump, Carson, Cruz, Fiorina, Huckabee) combine to generate between 63 and 70 percent support. The three main establishment candidates, Bush, Rubio, and Kasich, combine to between 12 and 19 percent.”
“Of course, there is a chance that as one or more of the outsider candidates falters, their supporters will gravitate to Rubio or one of the other establishment figures. Or that the outsiders will fragment in support, allowing Rubio, the establishment favorite, to do what Mitt Romney did in 2012. But it is a bit more likely that the bulk of those voters will opt instead for another outsider.”
Sen. Marco Rubio has a message before tonight’s GOP presidential debate.
“I mean, I am second — it’s not, like, terrible. But I don’t like being second. Second is terrible to me.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by the Washington Post, on his recent showing in Iowa polls.
Ryan Lizza: “Is it really going to nominate someone like Trump (or Carson), whose views are are so far outside the mainstream that either would pave the way for a historic Democratic landslide?”
“It’s doubtful. The overwhelming majority of Republican voters have repeatedly told pollsters this year that, whatever their choice in any given poll, they haven’t made up their minds yet. Most won’t think hard about their decision for at least another three months. At this point in 2008, Rudy Giuliani was the polling leader. In 2012, it was Cain. Rather than tell us anything deep about voter sentiments, polls at this point generally reflect name recognition and which candidates are receiving the most media attention at any given time.”
Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), “expected to become the next speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, threw his support on Wednesday behind a two-year budget deal aimed at averting a default on U.S. government debt next week,” Reuters reports.
“The support could provide a boost for the bill, which is set to reach the House floor for a vote Wednesday, even as far-right Republicans criticize it for increasing spending.”
Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert “pleaded guilty to evading currency-reporting requirements, but no further details came out about the underlying wrongdoing that led him to withdraw nearly $1 million in cash from four banks over 2 and 1/2 years,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
“Hastert’s admission of guilt marked a startling turn of events for a man who once held the nation’s third-highest political office. But the hearing also left more questions than answers.”
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio (D), asked to respond to reports that an endorsement was pending, the New York Times notes he replied: “When we have something to say on the political front, we’ll say it. I haven’t said anything yet.”
“Some Democrats say they are now watching for a subtle sign: whether Mr. de Blasio is allowed to make his endorsement alongside Mrs. Clinton, or if the announcement comes via news release, the type of distinction that can speak volumes in political circles.”
James Hohmann: “The stakes in tonight’s debate are as high for Jeb Bush as anyone else. A week after his campaign’s major downsizing, I’m hearing from some already-nervous Bush donors that they will close their checkbooks if the ex-Florida governor doesn’t have a breakout moment. Because he’s slipped in the polls, Jeb’s podium will move further from center stage toward the wings. This makes his mission of standing out even harder.”
First Read: “No one on tonight’s stage is under more pressure to deliver than Bush is. We are approaching make-or-break time for the former GOP frontrunner.”
“The bipartisan congressional budget deal will be an easy target for the GOP presidential field during Wednesday’s prime-time debate. And GOP leaders are bracing for their carefully crafted work to be treated like a punching bag,” Politico reports.
Rick Klein: “It may be physically and practically impossible to have a debate with Donald Trump that isn’t about Donald Trump, and the likelihood of a Trump headline increases with the emergence of a new front-running target. But the topics and timing of this debate could provide some interesting action a few feet away from center stage. In a debate focused on the economy, the three senators who will be on the main stage are fired up in opposition to a spending bill their GOP colleagues on Capitol Hill helped negotiate. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz in particular seem primed for breakout moments.”
“Meanwhile, things are heating up in the establishment lane, with Jeb Bush and John Kasich sharpening their focus and their language coming in to Boulder; both have records to tout on the economy, too. The realization that Trump is vulnerable, with Ben Carson’s support soft, could spark a new dynamic in the race. Who can be the most outsider of the alternatives to the pure outsiders?”
Asked how he thought Wednesday’s GOP presidential debate would go, Politico notes Donald Trump sent a one line response through his spokeswoman: “No, I don’t expect the debate to be fair.”
In a blistering editorial, the Sun Sentinel accused Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) “of defrauding voters for collecting a paycheck while he spends most of his time campaigning for president,” the New York Times reports.
Said the editorial: “You are paid $174,000 per year to represent us, to fight for us, to solve our problems. You are ripping us off, senator.”
First Read: “Wow. Don’t be surprised if some GOP candidates not named Jeb (John Kasich, Chris Christie) go after Rubio here.”
“Iowa, will you get your numbers up, please? I promise you, I will do such a good job.”
— Donald Trump, quoted by the Des Moines Register.
“House Republicans are facing a last-minute uprising against Speaker John Boehner’s budget deal, as dozens of GOP lawmakers are telling leadership they might vote against the package because of changes to crop insurance programs, and other concerns,” Politico reports.
Wall Street Journal: “Conservatives criticized the deal as the product of collusion between establishment Republicans and the White House.”
Washington Post: “Many conservatives expressed sharp reservations about the spending agreement, negotiated secretly in recent weeks by Boehner, President Obama and other congressional leaders. But centrist Republicans and Democrats appeared largely united in support, leaving leaders of both parties confident that the bill will pass.”