Rick Klein: “Yes, Hillary Clinton has a big, enormous, ridiculous lead among superdelegates. No, this is not necessarily the best time for her campaign to be bragging about that fact. According to ABC’s delegate count, Clinton currently leads Bernie Sanders 394-44 among delegates, despite her blowout loss in New Hampshire and only the narrowest of wins in Iowa. Clinton campaign aides are touting that lead, at least implicitly, in arguing to supporters and donors that the delegate math is overwhelmingly in her favor.”
“That, though, makes a few dangerous assumptions. First, it presumes that if superdelegates matter, they would openly deny the nomination to someone who won more delegates via actual voting. (Remember 2008, anyone?) Second, and more urgently, it presumes that Sanders supporters won’t wake up to this possibility and use it as motivation. A line about how the establishment is trying to subvert the judgment of the people could slip rather easily into a Sanders stump speech.”
First Read: “According to our back-of-envelope math, that means that Sanders must win 54% of the remaining delegates to get to the magic number of 2,382 delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination, while Clinton needs to win just 46%. That is a HUGE advantage, especially when you consider that the 2008 Democratic delegate race between Barack Obama and Clinton was essentially a 52%-48% affair. Now there’s one caveat to all of this: If Sanders does win a majority of the bound delegates, there will be ENORMOUS pressure on the supers to back him.”
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