Archives for March 2016

Clinton Would Crush Trump In Electoral College

March 31, 2016 at 7:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 126 Comments

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball takes advantage of the lull in the primary season to put together an electoral map forecast for a general election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

“Our new map is one that will evolve, maybe substantially, after the conventions. Remember that independent and/or third-party candidates could change the calculus. Nonetheless, here is our extra-early, ridiculously premature projection of the Electoral College map in a possible Hillary Clinton-Donald Trump matchup. Yielding completely to boldness, or recklessness, we eliminated Toss-ups, and leaned all states to one or the other nominee. Each state’s electoral history, developing demographics, and current polling data guided our choices.”

Trump Would Be Least Popular Nominee Ever

March 31, 2016 at 6:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

“If Donald Trump secures the Republican presidential nomination, he would start the general election campaign as the least-popular candidate to represent either party in modern times,” the Washington Post reports.

“Three-quarters of women view him unfavorably. So do nearly two-thirds of independents, 80 percent of young adults, 85 percent of Hispanics and nearly half of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents.”

“Those findings, tallied from Washington Post-ABC News polling, fuel Trump’s overall 67 percent unfavorable rating — making Trump more disliked than any major-party nominee in the 32 years the survey has been tracking candidates.”

GOP Nears Breaking Point

March 31, 2016 at 6:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

“The presidential primary has been a wrenching experience for the GOP so far — and it’s about to get even worse,” The Hill reports.

“Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and John Kasich have all backed away from their pledge to support the party’s eventual nominee, foreshadowing a fight at the convention and beyond that could cleave the GOP into warring factions… Instead of helping to unify the GOP behind a candidate, as the primary process typically does, the race has instead created deep wounds between the candidates that are unlikely to heal.”

Dan Balz: Republican candidates shatter the party’s illusion of unity

Trump Faces Backlash Over Comments

March 31, 2016 at 6:04 am EST By Taegan Goddard 14 Comments

Politico: “Donald Trump yanked the Republican Party toward a contested convention over the past 24 hours as he let rip an extraordinary series of statements on abortion, the Geneva Conventions, violence against women and his own commitment to supporting the GOP presidential nominee that seemed to obliterate the notion that the party will unite behind him anytime soon.”

“The fallout for Trump has been swift, as Republican rivals denounced the real estate mogul’s escalating attacks on a reporter who accused Trump’s campaign manager of battery and his suggestion that women should be punished for seeking abortions if the procedure is outlawed — a statement Trump quickly tried to walk back.”

Is Wisconsin Slipping Away from Trump?

March 30, 2016 at 6:31 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 34 Comments

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Aide to Bentley Resigns Amid Scandal

March 30, 2016 at 5:53 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 41 Comments

“A top political aide to Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley (R) resigned Wednesday, a week after he publicly admitted making inappropriate remarks to her but denied the two ever had an affair,” the AP reports.

Meanwhile, state Rep. Ed Henry (R) told WHNT that he will seek the impeachment of the governor based on “incompetence and moral turpitude.”

Trump Says Abortion Ban Should Include Punishment

March 30, 2016 at 3:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 316 Comments

Donald Trump said there would “have to be some form of punishment” for women who have abortions if the procedure were outlawed, NBC News reports.

He didn’t offer specifics, noting that the punishment would “have to be determined.”

When asked if a man should bear responsibility for abortions as well, Trump said “no” he didn’t think so.

Quote of the Day

March 30, 2016 at 2:22 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 38 Comments

“They told you in 2014 they were gonna repeal Obamacare. Do you realize, that’s just — that’s a big joke?”

— Gov. John Kasich, quoted by BuzzFeed, calling the GOP’s repeal vow “a stupid promise” since President Obama would have vetoed any repeal effort.

Sponsors Nervous About GOP Convention

March 30, 2016 at 1:56 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

New York Times: “Some of the country’s best-known corporations are nervously grappling with what role they should play at the Republican National Convention, given the likely nomination of Donald J. Trump, whose divisive candidacy has alienated many women, African-Americans and Hispanics.”

“An array of activist groups is organizing a campaign to pressure the companies to refuse to sponsor the gathering, which many of the corporations have done for both the Republican and Democratic parties for decades. The pressure is emerging as some businesses and trade groups are already privately debating whether to scale back their participation.”

Cruz Leads In Wisconsin

March 30, 2016 at 1:39 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 52 Comments

A new Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin shows Ted Cruz leading the GOP presidential primary with 40%, followed by Donald Trump at 30% and John Kasich at 21%.

In the Democratic race, Bernie Sanders leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 45%.

Will Paul Ryan Steal the GOP Nomination?

March 30, 2016 at 1:37 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 105 Comments

Vanity Fair: “Because Ryan is so beloved by many inside the Beltway, some are suggesting that he parachute into a contested Republican convention—one in which Donald Trump fails to win the 1,237 delegates required on the first vote—and become the party’s nominee.”

“There are signs that Ryan is open to being drafted. He didn’t mind the idea of being vice president back in 2012, so maybe he wouldn’t mind the idea of being president today. He has shaved his beard, quieting suspicions of a secret fealty to Islam. He represents the opposite of Trump on many policy fronts, like trade, immigration, and foreign policy. Yes, he has denied interest in the nomination. ‘While I am grateful for the encouragement I’ve received, I will not be a candidate,’ he has averred. But…oh, sorry, that quote is from last October. It’s what Ryan said about becoming Speaker of the House about three weeks before becoming Speaker of the House.“

How Trump Hacked the Media

March 30, 2016 at 1:32 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

Nate Silver: “An underappreciated problem is that Trump’s candidacy is relatively lacking in precedent, which means we’re all trying to figure this out as we go along. Traditional journalists have had trouble covering Trump, but so have empirically-minded ones like us here at FiveThirtyEight. We laid long odds against Trump getting this far, in large part because no similar presidential candidate has done so since primary and caucus voting became widespread in 1972.”

“Put another way, Trump has hacked the system and exposed the weaknesses in American political institutions. He’s uncovered profound flaws in the Republican Party. He’s demonstrated that third-rail issues like racism and nationalism can still be a potent political force. He’s exploited the media’s goodwill and taken advantage of the lack of trust the American public has in journalism. Trump may go away — he’s not yet assured of winning the GOP nomination, and he’ll be an underdog in November if he does — but the problems he’s exposed were years in the making, and they’ll take years to sort out.”

Perry Didn’t Vote In Texas Primary

March 30, 2016 at 12:11 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

Former Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) may have stumped for Ted Cruz for president, “but there’s no record he voted in this year’s Republican primary in Texas,” the Texas Tribune reports.

“Perry’s failure to vote in this year’s Texas primary could lead to more speculation that he is interested in running as an independent candidate for president.”

“There are two key requirements in Texas for someone to run as an independent candidate for president. First, a candidate would have had to abstain from voting in one of the state’s primaries because doing so would declare themselves as either a Democrat or Republican. Second, a candidate would need to gather 79,939 signatures by May 9 from Texans who had also not voted in either of the primaries that year.”

Bentley Ordered Law Enforcement to Target Critics

March 30, 2016 at 12:08 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley (R) “pressured law enforcement officers to use federal and state resources to target those critical of his relationship with senior advisor Rebekah Caldwell Mason,” according to the Alabama Political Reporter.

Meanwhile, Yellowhammer News reports Bentley and Mason “share a secret safe deposit box at a Montgomery bank.”

Bill Seeks to Make Bible the Official Book of Tennessee

March 30, 2016 at 10:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard 104 Comments

“A bill that would make the Holy Bible the official book of Tennessee was given approval in a legislative committee on Tuesday,” the Tennessean reports.

“The move to make the Bible the state’s official book comes a month after Tennessee lawmakers approved a measure to make the Barrett M82 sniper rifle the official state rifle.”

Wisconsin Is the Showdown We’ve Been Waiting For

March 30, 2016 at 9:50 am EST By Taegan Goddard 47 Comments

Rick Klein: “Donald Trump said Tuesday night that a reporter’s pen might have been a ‘little bomb.’ That has nothing on what came out of Trump’s mouth in the CNN forum, where he renounced the famous pledge to support the GOP nominee, and proceeded to make conservative jaw drops with his answers to policy questions. Trump named education and healthcare as two of the top three functions of the federal government, and seemed to endorse the idea of Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia getting nuclear weapons. That doesn’t even get into the Corey Lewandowski incident, where Trump is now threatening legal action against reporter Michelle Fields, despite the criminal charges filed against his campaign manager.”

“It’s now more clear than ever that if Trump wins the Republican nomination, he won’t do it as a conservative in any traditional sense of the word, or as a candidate who fits any norm in American politics. Maybe that’s the secret to his success. But if Trump wins Wisconsin next week despite all of this – or even because of it – will a plausible path to blocking Trump continue to exist? This could be the showdown all sides have been waiting for.”

Trump Says He Doesn’t Need to Work Out

March 30, 2016 at 9:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard 63 Comments

Donald Trump boasted to People magazine that he only needs 4 hours of sleep a night.

When asked if he worked out regularly, he said: “Don’t have to. When you’re making speeches for 25,000 people and shouting and screaming and having fun with everybody and making America great again, you get a lot of exercise.”

Kasich Helps Trump by Staying In Race

March 30, 2016 at 9:39 am EST By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

A new Public Policy Polling survey shows Donald Trump leading the GOP field nationally with 42%, followed by Ted Cruz at 32% and John Kasich at 22%.

Key finding: “Kasich’s continued presence in the race really is providing a boost to Trump: In a head to head match up he would lead Cruz only 46% to 44%, as Kasich voters would move to Cruz over Trump by a 51% to 23% spread”