Politico: “The backdrop of all his denials is the political reality that Ryan would likely lose. Most public polling has him faring relatively poorly in a potential matchup with Clinton. … Ryan would be forced to launch and run a presidential campaign in three months. His experience from 2012 would help, but even the most talented campaigner would be at a disadvantage on such a compressed timetable.”
Archives for April 2016
Quote of the Day
“For him to win a floor fight, he’s going to need more friends, not less. And I think he’s reaching out to people, and we’ll see how that goes.”
— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), quoted by the Texas Tribune, on Sen. Ted Cruz’s chances of winning the Republican nomination.
Trump Names Possible Veep Picks
Donald Trump told USA Today that he would consider Sen. Marco Rubio, Gov. Scott Walker and Gov. John Kasich as his potential running mate.
Said Trump: “I do like Marco. I do like Kasich. … I like Walker actually in a lot of ways. I hit him very hard, … but I’ve always liked him. There are people I like, but I don’t think they like me because I have hit them hard.”
Trump, Clinton Headed for Big Wins In New York
A new NY1/Baruch College poll in New York finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 60%, followed by John Kasich at 17% and Ted Cruz at 14%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 50% to 37%.
For members: New York Primary Cheat Sheet
There Are Few Limits on Wooing Delegates
Washington Post: “The already freewheeling Republican presidential contest is fast turning into a personal persuasion game as the candidates pursue no-holds-barred efforts to lock up delegates — and there are relatively few limits on how far they can go.”
“Under regulations established in the 1980s, delegates cannot take money from corporations, labor unions, federal contractors or foreign nationals. But an individual donor is permitted to give a delegate unlimited sums to support his or her efforts to get selected to go to the convention, including money to defray the costs of travel and lodging.”
Said campaign finance lawyer Brett Kappel: “They’ll live like kings at the convention.”
Attacks Ads Threaten to Undermine Trump
New York Times: “More than half of the record spending on negative advertising during the 2016 presidential primary has been directed at a single candidate, Donald J. Trump, a barrage that threatens to undermine his candidacy even as he continues to march toward the Republican nomination.”
Feds Looking at De Blasio’s Fundraising
U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara is investigating New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio’s (D) “campaign fund-raising activities as part of a widening probe into NYPD corruption,” the New York Post reports.
“The feds are looking at how the mayor solicits campaign cash from members of the real-estate industry — and the fund-raising activities of his former campaign treasurer, Ross Offinger.”
Anti-Trump Billionaires Fund Delegate Fight
Politico: “First they spent tens of millions trying to boost their favorite presidential candidates, then they poured cash into ads attacking Donald Trump, and now some of the biggest donors on the right are turning their attention to the delegate fight.”
“Anti-Trump billionaires are funding ground operations in an increasing number of states to try to ensure the selection of national convention delegates who oppose Trump.”
Trump Way Up In New York
A new NBC News/Marist poll in New York finds Donald Trump leading the GOP presidential race with 54%, followed by John Kasich at 21% and Ted Cruz at 18%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 55% to 41%.
Quote of the Day
“There won’t be any games in Cleveland. If someone’s at 1,237, they’re going to be the presumptive nominee. No one can get talked out of it. Nobody can be promised something to make that not happen.”
— RNC Chairman Reince Priebus, quoted by Politico.
Trump Accuses Cruz of Buying Delegates
Donald Trump’s concerns about how delegates are allotted turned into a roar as he accused the campaign of rival Ted Cruz of buying votes after his weekend win in Colorado, Reuters reports.
Said Trump: “The people out there are going crazy, in the Denver area and Colorado itself. They’re going absolutely crazy because they weren’t given a vote. This was given by politicians – it’s a crooked deal.”
U.K. Lawmaker Ejected for ‘Dodgy Dave’ Comment
British Labour MP Dennis Skinner has been thrown out of Parliament for calling Prime Minister David Cameron ‘Dodgy Dave’ over his personal finances.
New York Primary Cheat Sheet
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Trump’s Children Can’t Vote for Him
Conservative Review reports that at least two of Donald Trump’s four adult children — Ivanka and Eric — will be unable to vote for their father in New York on April 19th because they are not registered Republicans.
The Weakest GOP Frontrunner of the Modern Era
Harry Enten: “Trump’s 37 percent of the cumulative primary vote and 46 percent of delegates won so far may sound impressive, but his percentages make him the weakest Republican front-runner, at this point in the process, in decades. Of course, a front-runner is still a front-runner, but by historical standards Trump is limping along — hence the increased chances of a contested convention.”
“Past GOP nominees such as George H.W. Bush in 1988, George W. Bush in 2000, Bob Dole in 1996 and Ronald Reagan in 1980 had bigger shares of the vote at this point, even if they started out slowly. You’ll also note, however, that the two most recent Republican nominees, John McCain and Mitt Romney, weren’t doing too much better than Trump is now. McCain and Romney, though, were far ahead of Trump at this point in the delegate race.”
Trump Is Complaining About the Rules
Rick Klein: “Does Donald Trump now want voters’ pity, because he still has to work for the nomination? His Tweet over the weekend, asking ‘isn’t a shame’ that a candidate with the most delegates and votes ‘still must fight,’ betrays either a lack of self-awareness of a lack of understanding of the rules of the game, if not both. Complaining now about delegate selection rules is a little like arguing with the league in the fourth quarter because you didn’t know there were such things as two-point conversions.”
“As Trump is apparently learning quite belatedly, you need to win elections and then also work to make sure the delegates you’re awarded actually support your candidacy. If Trump or anyone else needs lessons on that subject, they can start paying attention to what Ted Cruz is doing, as he sweeps delegate slates in places including North Dakota and Colorado, amid confusion in the Trump ranks. This stretch of time – with Cruz accruing delegates and lining up supporters, and Trump only now bringing in reinforcements to help him navigate the process – could be the one that determines the GOP nomination, even more than the early states, Super Tuesday, or even California.”
A Brokered Convention Isn’t a Failure of the System
Weekly Standard: “If the primaries and caucuses produce no consensus candidate, then it is perfectly legitimate for the delegates to exercise their sovereign authority. In fact, it is essential for them to do so. Since the first party nominations— dating all the way back to the congressional caucuses in the Jeffersonian era— the mandate has been for a candidate to win a majority of the participants before he becomes the nominee, and for good reason. A party nominee is not running just as an individual, but as the representative of a coalition. If a majority of caucus members, delegates, or voters have selected somebody else, how can that nominee be said to be representative of the whole? This is the one constant amidst all the changes in the presidential nominating process from 1796 through 2016: The nominee must represent the whole party.”
“And it is in this way that the convention is not simply an appendix. Today, it serves a function similar to the House of Representatives whenever no presidential candidate receives an Electoral College majority: The House selects from the top three finishers, with the winner being the candidate who receives a majority of votes from the state delegations. The logic behind this rule is that the president is the government officer who represents the whole country, and if a majority of the country — acting through the Electoral College — fails to agree on a candidate, selection devolves to the House, which must continue to vote until a majority coalesces. The House has not been required to serve this function since 1824, as the people have reached agreement on their own. But the procedure is in place as a fail-safe. The same goes for the GOP nominating convention. If the Republican electorate fails to agree amongst itself, the choice devolves to the delegates.”
Two Very Different Campaigns
First Read: “With roughly two-thirds of the 2016 primary season now behind us, this past weekend epitomized the different strengths and weaknesses of the Donald Trump and Ted Cruz campaigns. In Colorado on Saturday, Cruz’s organizational superiority helped him sweep 34 pledged delegates at the GOP state convention, while the Trump effort was wholly disorganized.”
“But the next day came a reminder of Trump’s strength and Cruz’s weakness: A Fox News poll showed Trump over 50% in New York, which would give the real-estate mogul a chance to take all of the state’s 95 delegates, while it had Cruz in third place.”
“It’s becoming increasingly likely that the Republican presidential nomination will come down to whose strength is more powerful — Trump’s ability to win big states, Cruz’s inside game at conventions and caucuses — and whose weakness is a bigger liability.”
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