Erick Erickson: “The Republican Party is on the verge of nominating the least popular politician in American presidential history. Ironically, the party’s voters are doing it to spite its own leaders, but its leaders prefer Trump to the other guy … The result will be Clinton winning in November. Trump cannot build a meaningful coalition outside of blue collar white voters, white supremacists, and internet conspiracy theorists. The rest of the voting public no more wants Trump than herpes.”
Archives for May 2016
Quote of the Day
“If we nominate Trump, we will get destroyed… and we will deserve it.”
— Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), on Twitter.
Has Trump Killed the Republican Party?
Trump Would Need to Dramatically Alter Map to Win
Wall Street Journal: “So to triumph, Mr. Trump will have to alter the electoral map in historically dramatic ways. He will have to wrest away not just a few states—like Colorado, Virginia, Nevada or New Mexico—that went with Mr. Obama in both 2008 and 2012 and appear to be turning reliably blue. He will also almost certainly have to grab a couple of states—like Michigan, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin—that haven’t fallen into the R column since the 1980s.”
Trump Begins Vetting Running Mates
Donald Trump said he will likely choose a politician as his running mate, Politico reports.
Said Trump: “I have the business, let’s call them talents, and I think I’ll probably go the political route. Somebody that can help me with legislation and somebody that can help me get things passed and somebody that’s been friends with the senators and congressmen and all so we don’t have to go the executive order route as much as Obama did, you know, where he can’t get anything approved so he just keeps signing executive orders.”
Trump Has a Long Way to Catch Clinton
Nate Cohn: “Yes, it’s still a long way until Election Day. And Mr. Trump has already upended the conventional wisdom many times. But this is when early horse-race polls start to give a rough sense of the November election, and Mr. Trump trails Mrs. Clinton by around 10 percentage points in early general election surveys, both nationally and in key battleground states.”
“He even trails in some polls of several states where Mitt Romney won in 2012, like North Carolina, Arizona, Missouri and Utah.”
“Could Mr. Trump overtake Mrs. Clinton? Sure. Mrs. Clinton is very unpopular herself. Her polling lead is a snapshot in time, before the barrage of attack ads that are sure to come her way. There have been 10-point shifts over the general election season before, even if it’s uncommon. But there isn’t much of a precedent for huge swings in races with candidates as well known as Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton. A majority of Americans may not like her, but they say they’re scared of him. To have a chance, he’ll need to change that.”
New CNN/ORC poll: Clinton 54%, Trump 41%
Clinton Won’t Shy Away from Hitting Trump
Washington Post: “He will be up against a different kind of challenge: a battle-tested adversary — and a general-election electorate that is broader and more diverse than the voters who have dominated the Republican primaries and caucuses.”
“Republican contenders were constrained in attacking the front-runner by their fears of alienating Trump’s passionate supporters, while Democrats say they will have no such qualms in taking him on.”
“Clinton, moreover, is a known figure to voters — for better or worse — by virtue of having been on the national stage for nearly a quarter-century as a first lady, senator, presidential contender and secretary of state.”
Some Republicans Consider Clinton Over Trump
Politico: “Ted Cruz’s sudden suspension of his campaign following his double-digit loss to Trump in Indiana Tuesday night is forcing anti-Trump Republicans to finally confront the Hobson’s Choice of a general election matchup between Hillary Clinton and a demagogic conspiracy theorist untethered to conservative principles.”
“While many conservative stalwarts are conflicted and stuck in a state of paralysis, some are considering the ultimate betrayal.”
New York Times: Victory for Trump has some Republicans bolting
Clinton Plots Swing State Ambush for Trump
“Donald Trump all but claimed the GOP nomination Tuesday by routing Ted Cruz in Indiana. Hillary Clinton stumbled, failing once again to finish off Bernie Sanders’ long-shot Democratic primary challenge,” Politico reports.
“But even in defeat, Clinton continues to execute a hard turn toward November — and the coming war with Trump. Over the last two weeks, Clinton has been quietly accelerating her swing-state operation, organizing what amounts to a shadow general election campaign at the same time she is fending off a rival who insists he’ll continue to fight until the Democratic convention in July.”
Independents Sour on Clinton
“Hillary Clinton faces a mounting challenge among independent voters following months of attacks from rival Bernie Sanders,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“An April Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that Mrs. Clinton’s favorability rating among independents had dropped 15 percentage points in the previous four months. That poll found that 20% of independents viewed Mrs. Clinton positively, compared with 62% who viewed her negatively. In January, that same poll found her with a positive rating of 35% and a negative rating of 54%.”
RNC Embraces Trump as Nominee
RNC Chairman Reince Priebus tweeted that Donald Trump will be the presumptive GOP nominee, adding “we all need to unite and focus on defeating Hillary Clinton.”
Indiana Primary Results
Donald Trump has won the Republican primary in Indiana, dealing a crushing defeat to Ted Cruz and putting himself on a clear path to clinching the nomination.
Following his loss, Cruz dropped out of the presidential race.
John Kasich, however, pledged to stay in the race until a candidate reaches 1,237 delegates.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders defeated Hillary Clinton.
Headline of the Day
Rollins Joins Team Trump
Ed Rollins, one of the longest-serving Republican presidential campaign strategists, is joining a pro-Donald Trump super PAC, Politico reports.
“In an interview, Rollins — who managed Ronald Reagan’s 1984 campaign and played leading roles for Jack Kemp, Mike Huckabee and Michele Bachmann — said that he would serve as a top strategist for Great America PAC, an outside group that’s supporting Trump.”
Ex-McCain Aide Will Back Clinton Over Trump
Mark Salter, a former top aide to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), says he will support Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in November as both candidates appear close to locking down their parties’ nominations, MSNBC reports.
Said Salter: “Basically, I think she’s the more conservative choice and the least reckless one. Trump’s policy views are like some drunk’s rant. If he tried to do anything like he says he will, we’d have no allies, a lot more enemies, and more of them with nukes. Finally, he’s unfit for the office, too, temperamentally and morally, a narcissistic bigot.”
Cruz Really Doesn’t Like This Question
Sen. Ted Cruz still won’t say if he’ll support Donald Trump as the Republican nominee.
Will Clinton Just Repeat the Obama Presidency?
American Prospect: “Hillary Clinton would come into office without ambitions for the kind of big, transformative bills Obama passed. Nevertheless, her administration could follow exactly the same pattern: two years in which to pass legislation, followed by a Republican victory that robs her of any hope of making new laws with Congress’s help. And that’s if she’s lucky.”
“The best-case scenario for Clinton is that she gets her Democratic Congress in those first two years—with extremely small margins, particularly in the House. And then what happens in 2018? Presidents almost always lose ground in Congress in off-year elections, and given the more Republican-friendly cast of the off-year electorate (older and more white, for starters), Republicans would be highly likely to take back the House. Even if Democrats take the Senate this year, it will be very hard for them to hold on to it.”
“Republicans may despise Hillary Clinton even more than they do Obama. So whatever she can accomplish will be only over their most fevered and absolute opposition. Getting anything through Congress won’t be easy—and she’ll have precious little time to do it.”
Too Little, Too Late for Cruz
Byron York: “Cruz’s outburst came too late to have much of an effect on Indiana voters, who were already going to the polls as he spoke. But his words are sure to set off a debate on why Cruz did not reveal his feelings earlier. Why wait until his back was against the wall?”
“Obviously Cruz did not love Trump or think he was terrific back in December. Cruz was acting strategically, in what he thought was his political self interest. Now, whatever happens in Indiana, the question for Cruz will be: Why didn’t you say what you felt all along?”
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