Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “For the time being, we’re sticking with our current Electoral College ratings, which show Clinton with 347 electoral votes safe, likely, and leaning to her, with 191 safe/likely/leaning Trump. We agree that if the election were held today, it would almost certainly be closer than that — and that Trump could very well win. But the election isn’t being held today — it’s actually still about 100 days away. Our ratings are a forecast for November, not a reflection of the day-to-day state of play, and we still see Clinton with an edge.”
“If the dust settles from the conventions the next few weeks and the numbers are still what they are today, then we very well may have to reassess.”
The Upshot: Why our model still has Clinton ahead
Save to Favorites