“The real campaign manager, in fact, the entire time, has been Jared Kushner, who is still the real campaign manager, even today.”
— A Trump adviser, quoted by the New Yorker., on Donald Trump’s son-in-law.
“The real campaign manager, in fact, the entire time, has been Jared Kushner, who is still the real campaign manager, even today.”
— A Trump adviser, quoted by the New Yorker., on Donald Trump’s son-in-law.
A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 11 points nationally, 46% to 35%, with Gary Johnson at 9%.
The poll was taken after the video of Trump making lewd comments was disclosed but before last night’s debate.
In the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans, 49% to 42%.
“Speaker Paul Ryan told House Republicans on a conference call Monday morning he is done defending Donald Trump and will focus on keeping an increasingly imperiled House majority, according to sources on the call,” Politico reports.
Said Ryan: “You all need to do what’s best for you in your district.”
Washington Post: “The speaker, who has pledged to vote for Trump, did not address whether he would revoke his official endorsement, said a second source present on the call. The tone of that call, which lasted roughly an hour, added that source, was ‘nervous.'”
You are reading the free version of Political Wire.
Nate Silver: “These instant-reaction polls actually do have a correlation with post-debate horse-race polls: The candidate who wins the former usually gains in the latter. Perhaps Clinton’s win was modest enough that this will be an exception, especially given that the sentiments of pundits and television commentators (which sometimes matter as much as the debate itself) were all over the map.”
“So suppose that we call the debate a draw. Suppose, furthermore that the tape the Post published didn’t damage Trump. Instead, let’s say the polls look about the same a week from now as they do today, with Clinton holding a 5 or 6 percentage point lead. Maybe Clinton’s numbers were a little inflated after the first debate and Trump has even gained a point or two, somehow.”
“That’s still a fairly awful position for Trump with time running out, undecided voters getting off the sidelines, early voting already taking place in many states and little or no ground game to help provide a strong finishing kick. There’s the third debate, but without an extremely strong performance in that one, Trump is probably left hoping for an ‘October surprise’ or a big polling error (not impossible, but it would have to be larger than the 4-point margin by which Brexit polls missed).”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Ohio to Hillary Clinton’s column:
There has been a lot written about why Donald Trump will perform better in Ohio than nationally — we devoted an entire article to it last week. Both the state’s history of having a slight Republican lean and its current demographics make it friendlier to Trump than the nation as a whole. However, polling in the state is showing that Donald Trump’s lead from a few weeks ago has evaporated, and the most recent surveys actually have had Clinton ahead. We’ve also caught wind of some unreleased polling that mirrors these results. If Clinton has a national lead of around four or five points, there’s good reason to think that Ohio will end up voting for her, even if it has a redder tint than usual.
The Clinton campaign also appears to be redoubling its efforts in this historic bellwether, further putting to bed rumors that the Clinton campaign might not be focusing much on the state (although one never knows what might happen in the final month of this contest). Clinton herself is campaigning on Monday in Columbus, a place where she will likely need to match or probably even exceed Obama’s performance to win the state, and President Obama is campaigning in Cleveland and Columbus later in the week. On Thursday, Trump will be in Cincinnati, the heart of vote-rich southwest Ohio, a conservative region that is vital to any Republican’s statewide chances.
If Clinton wins Ohio, Trump has no path to victory. No Republican has ever won the White House without it, and, particularly in this election, Ohio’s demographics should make it relatively low-hanging fruit for the Republicans. So we now have Trump as the underdog in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, three electoral vote-rich states that he absolutely needs to have any chance to win.
“It’s absolutely false… It’s the greatest honor of my life.”
— Gov. Mike Pence, in an interview on CNN when asked if he was going to drop off the Republican ticket.
After last night’s debate, Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway suggested that some of the male members of Congress who are not supporting Donald Trump have sexually harassed women, according to CBS News.
A CNN poll finds Hillary Clinton won the second presidential debate with Donald Trump by a wide margin, 57% to 34%.
A YouGov survey also found Clinton the winner, 47% to 42%.
Politico: “Trump, who has effectively squandered his chance of becoming president due to a bumbling, gaffe-marred two-week interim between the first debate and Sunday’s showdown in St. Louis, was the aggressor for much of the debate. But his marginally successful attacks over Obamacare and Clinton’s email controversy were aimed mainly at his own base, as were his hot-tempered hyperbole and gruff stage presence—he actually seemed to stalk Clinton, standing behind her, scowling as she answered questions posed by undecided voters in a town hall-style setting.”
Alexander Burns: “Mr. Trump’s defiant performance may not stabilize his candidacy, but it will likely put to rest frenzied speculation over the weekend that he might be forced from the presidential race. Facing abandonment by dozens of important Republican officials, he bucked calls to withdraw and instead offered a performance his core supporters will cheer loudly.”
“His rhetoric was stocked with buzzwords that will gratify the party base: Benghazi. Sidney Blumenthal. Deplorables. Radical Islam.”
Byron York: “You can make a good argument that Donald Trump won the second presidential debate with Hillary Clinton. You could also argue that no one won. But it’s probably beyond dispute that Trump’s performance will shut down Republican defections from his struggling campaign, at least for now.”
Nate Cohn: “Many commentators argued that Mr. Trump held his own Sunday night; some argued he won the debate outright. And his tactics — intentionally or not — probably made it harder for the Republican establishment to abandon him.”
“House Speaker Paul Ryan has discussed withdrawing his endorsement of Donald Trump, according to multiple sources familiar with the discussions within his inner circle,” Politico reports.
“Ryan is gathering House Republicans on a conference call Monday morning at 11 a.m.”
“No decision has been made. But that the speaker of the House has even mulled abandoning his own party’s presidential nominee is illustrative of the extraordinarily bizarre political climate in the Republican Party.”
Dan Balz: “What occurred here on Sunday is likely to be remembered as the Spectacle in St. Louis: a presidential debate wrapped inside a sordid and unfolding series of events that have left Trump isolated, defiant and politically wounded, his Republican Party at war with itself and the country caught up in a campaign that has left issues and even moderately civil debate far behind, almost an afterthought.”
David Gergen: “Whatever chance Donald Trump still had of capturing the White House largely evaporated Sunday night in his second debate with Hillary Clinton.”
Amy Walter: “Lincoln-Douglas this was not. In fact, the debate Sunday night between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump was ugly, angry and soul-crushing. It was less a forum for undecided voters than a grudge match between two people who really, really don’t like each other. At the end of the day, however, this debate did little to change the trajectory of the campaign. This is still Clinton’s race to lose. And Trump refuses to do what he needs to win it.”
Jonathan Chait: “To Republicans whose beliefs have been shaped through exposure to the Drudge Report, Breitbart, Fox News, or Rush Limbaugh, every word that escaped his lips was simple truths. Hillary Clinton cited the Republican officials who have called him unfit for office, trying to use the prestige of the Republican Party against him. Trump used his time to show that he is the Republican Party.”
Ezra Klein: “At Sunday’s debate, Donald Trump revealed that he is not running to be America’s president so much as its dictator.”
Andrew Sullivan: “I’m horrified to say that Trump will survive this, even though he absolutely shouldn’t. I suspect this performance will prevent a total meltdown in his campaign. His Breitbart-style attacks on Clinton will have riled up his base… He’s a disgrace and a national embarrassment. And he may still win this election.”
David Weigel: “Clinton handled the questions in typical fashion, offering lengthy answers that may have sounded better to her than they did to others.”
Sometime over the last week — probably after the release of the video showing him bragging about sexual assault — Donald Trump realized he wasn’t going to win this election.
He’s now moved on to Plan B.
Trump’s pivot — starting with his “apology” video late Friday night — was to go full Breitbart. He’s now speaking only to the audience for a speculated media venture. Its not a mistake that his top advisers are former Fox News chief Roger Ailes and Breitbart’s Stephen Bannon.
From the pre-debate spectacle with women who accused Bill Clinton of various sex crimes to saying he would put Hillary Clinton in jail after he wins, it’s obvious that Trump no longer cares to be a mainstream Republican. He treated this like a debate at the Conservative Political Action Conference, not a general election campaign for president of the United States.
This debate should be seen as Trump’s official divorce from the Republican party.
Trump has put every Republican in a downballot race in a really tough position. They can un-endorse their party’s nominee and incur the wrath of his supporters or they can back him and lose swing voters. Trump even dismissed his own running mate’s comments on Russia. At this point, it’s hard to see the Republican party offer any help to his campaign.
As for the debate, Trump was completely unprepared. His body language was terrible. He showed he doesn’t even know how a bill becomes a law. He admitted he hasn’t paid federal income taxes for years — and that won’t the headline from tonight.
Considering that backdrop, Clinton did a decent job. She was very smart to stick to audience questions and try to understand their concerns. Rather than needle Trump as she did in the first debate, she mostly tried to ignore him.
Clinton wasn’t perfect. Her answer on her emails was extremely weak. She left many of Trump’s attacks unanswered. But there’s only one candidate seriously running for president at this point. She won the debate hands down. It’s hard to imagine Trump won over even a single voter tonight.
Martha Raddatz and Anderson Cooper were also excellent moderators. If you ever need a moderator for a dumpster fire, they’re the ones to choose.
The second presidential debate begins at 9 p.m. ET.
Leave your reactions in the comments.
Donald Trump was on Facebook Live with Bill Clinton accusers Kathleen Willey, Paula Jones, Juanita Broaddrick and Kathy Shelton.
“House Republican leaders are paralyzed over how to respond to Donald Trump’s vulgar comments about women, aware that he could turn against them but also cognizant that the GOP nominee has now put control of the chamber in serious danger,” Politico reports.
“The leaders are tentatively planning to tell Republican lawmakers on a Monday morning conference call that they should feel free to abandon Trump as they seek to save their own political careers, according to multiple sources involved in planning. But top aides and lawmakers warn that the plan could change depending on Trump’s debate performance.”
For members: The House Is Now In Play
Geraldo Rivera said that he has uncovered more “embarrassing” statements that Trump made during interviews with the radio show host, Politico reports.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
“There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them.”
— Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”
“Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all.”
— Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report
“Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”
— Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report
“The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom — nicely packaged, constantly updated… What political junkie could ask for more?”
— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia
“Political Wire is a great, great site.”
— Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”
“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”
— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post
“Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere.”
— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit
“I rely on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It’s an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading.”
— Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.