Archives for August 2017
Flake’s Approval Sinks Like a Stone
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Sen. Jeff Flake’s (R-AZ) approval rate at just 18%, with 62% disapproving.
In contrast, President Trump’s approval rate in the state is 44% to 53%.
If the 2018 election were held today, Flake would lose to a generic Democrat, 47% to 31%.
Trump Has a Serious Leak Problem
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No Senate Retirements Yet
First Read: “As the Senate prepares to skip town for August recess, it’s worth noting that the upper chamber looks like it may break a record this cycle: the least retirements ever. In fact, it’s conceivable that NO senator will retire at all this cycle. Even the two who have been the subject to most speculation about retirement — Utah’s Orrin Hatch and California’s Dianne Feinstein — so far appear to be making moves to stay on the job.”
“Yes, it’s early, and it’s very possible the landscape will change as the summer goes on. But it’s still VERY unusual to see this lack of movement in the Senate. In fact, according to Jennifer Duffy of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, half of all Senate retirements since 2006 (with one exception in 2008) had been announced by the end of March of the year before the election. The average number of Senate retirements over the past 20 cycles has been about 6.5; the lowest number has been three, back in 1982.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“We have a massive drug problem where kids are becoming addicted to drugs because the drugs are being sold for less money than candy. I won New Hampshire because New Hampshire is a drug-infested den.”
— President Trump, in a transcript of his first call with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto.
Why Trump Won’t Ever Move to the Center
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Trump Admitted Mexico Would Not Pay for Border Wall
“President Trump made building a wall along the southern U.S. border and forcing Mexico to pay for it core pledges of his campaign. But in his first White House call with Mexico’s president, Trump described his vow to charge Mexico as a growing political problem, pressuring the Mexican leader to stop saying publicly that his government would never pay,” the Washington Post reports.
According to a transcript, Trump “made clear that he realized the funding would have to come from other sources but threatened to cut off contact if Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto continued to make defiant statements.”
Said Trump: “Believe it or not, this is the least important thing that we are talking about, but politically this might be the most important to talk about.”
He said the funding “will work out in the formula somehow,” adding later that “it will come out in the wash, and that is okay.” But “if you are going to say that Mexico is not going to pay for the wall, then I do not want to meet with you guys anymore because I cannot live with that.”
Quote of the Day
“Our relationship with Russia is at an all-time and very dangerous low. You can thank Congress, the same people that can’t even give us health care!”
— President Trump, on Twitter.
Trump Faces Growing Rebellion Among GOP Lawmakers
President Trump “is facing growing resistance from Republican lawmakers who are both turned off by his chronically chaotic style and increasingly unafraid of his ability to punish them politically as the President’s poll numbers plummet,” CNN reports.
“Trump’s diminishing influence was on stark display last week when his top priority — the repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act — failed dramatically in the Senate. Emboldened congressional Republicans are also pushing back on a range of issues including Russia, transgender rights, health insurance subsides for low income Americans, and even whether to reform Senate rules to make it easier for the GOP to pass his agenda.”
James Hohmann: Trump’s stumbles are undercutting executive power, which may be healthy for America.
Mueller’s Job Would Be Protected by Bipartisan Bill
“Two members of the Senate Judiciary Committee are moving to protect Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s job, putting forth legislation that aims to ensure the integrity of current and future independent investigations,” CBS News reports.
“Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) and Sen. Chris Coons (D-DE) plan to introduce the legislation Thursday. The bill would allow any special counsel for the Department of Justice to challenge his or her removal in court, with a review by a three-judge panel within 14 days of the challenge.”
GOP Clash Looms Over Debt Ceiling Hike
“Republican congressional leaders are quietly preparing to pass a ‘clean’ debt ceiling increase, according to multiple senior GOP sources — setting the stage for a high-risk showdown with rank-and-file Republicans this fall,” Politico reports.
“Trump administration officials, led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, are imploring Congress to raise the $19.8 trillion debt limit with no strings attached by the end of September. And Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Speaker Paul Ryan — well aware they need Democrats to pass any debt bill through the Senate — are on board, albeit begrudgingly so.”
The Hill: “For Republicans, September is shaping up to be a month of bitter pills.”
Zuckerberg Hires a Pollster
“Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and his wife, Priscilla Chan, have hired Democratic pollster Joel Benenson, a former top adviser to President Barack Obama and the chief strategist to Hillary Clinton’s failed 2016 presidential campaign, as a consultant,” Politico reports.
“Bringing on Benenson is the latest sign that they’re pushing their philanthropic work more heavily into the political and policy world.”
Sean Spicer Still Plans to Exit
Politico: “In the wake of Scaramucci’s departure, Spicer — who committed to staying several weeks to ensure an orderly transition in the press office — briefly considered staying on at the White House to help with Trump’s effort to pass a major tax reform, a policy issue that Spicer had engaged with since stepping back from regular briefings in the last month. But he made it clear to his colleagues by late afternoon on Tuesday that he does not plan to stay on in the White House beyond August.”
Trump Embraces Plan to Slash Legal Immigration
President Trump “embraced a proposal on Wednesday to slash legal immigration to the United States in half within a decade by sharply curtailing the ability of American citizens and legal residents to bring family members into the country,” the New York Times reports.
“The plan would enact the most far-reaching changes to the system of legal immigration in decades and represents the president’s latest effort to stem the flow of newcomers to the United States. Since taking office, he has barred many visitors from select Muslim-majority countries, limited the influx of refugees, increased immigration arrests and pressed to build a wall along the southern border.”
“In throwing his weight behind a bill, Mr. Trump added one more long-odds priority to a legislative agenda already packed with them in the wake of the defeat of legislation to repeal and replace President Barack Obama’s health care program. The president has already vowed to overhaul the tax code and rebuild the nation’s roads, airports and other infrastructure.”
Democratic Gains Likely In Gubernatorial Contests
Alan Abramowitz: “We are a long way from November 2018, so national conditions could change. Still, Republicans will have so many seats at risk in next year’s gubernatorial elections that they are almost guaranteed to suffer a net loss of seats.”
“Of course, the quality of the respective party candidates and campaigns will be important as Republicans seek to limit potential Democratic gains. Still, based on recent generic ballot results, the GOP loss could be rather substantial. According to the FiveThirtyEight weighted average of recent polling results, Democrats currently hold a lead of about eight points on the generic ballot. A lead of that magnitude in early September 2018 would predict a net Democratic gain of around nine governorships with a two-thirds probability that the gain would be between six and 12 seats.”
Scaramucci Will Hold Online Event on Friday
“Anthony Scaramucci wants to tell his own story,” CNN reports.
“Following his departure from the White House after less than 11 days as communications director, Scaramucci will be hosting an online event on Friday where he will address the American people directly. Scaramucci said this daytime event… will give him the opportunity to reach and communicate with the President’s base.”
Quote of the Day
“Trump’s administration has demonstrated total impotence by surrendering its executive authority to Congress in the most humiliating way.”
— Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, quoted by the Washington Post, after President Trump signed new Russian sanctions into law.
U.S. Attorney Subpoenas Kushner Companies
“Kushner Cos., the New York property development business owned by the family of White House senior adviser Jared Kushner, has been subpoenaed by New York federal prosecutors regarding its use of an investment-for-immigration program,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“It isn’t clear what potential violations are being probed by the U.S. attorney.”
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