Yahoo News: “Here’s something that should keep Democrats up at night. In 2020, the party’s presidential nominee could recapture the big, historically blue states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, but still lose the Electoral College, 270-268, if Donald Trump ekes out another narrow victory in Wisconsin — a state he won by just .7 percentage points in 2016.”
“This isn’t some far-fetched scenario. For Democrats, Pennsylvania and Michigan are riper demographic targets than the Badger State, where the electorate is heavier on (Trump-friendly) non-college-educated whites and lighter on (largely anti-Trump) African-Americans. In the ‘blue wave’ midterm elections of 2018, Dems swept the governorships of Pennsylvania and Michigan by double-digit margins. They flipped Wisconsin by a single percentage point. In Wisconsin’s only statewide contest since then, a conservative state Supreme Court candidate upset his liberal opponent. And when Priorities USA, America’s largest Democratic super-PAC, recently projected the 2020 results, it said that ‘if the election were held today,’ only one state was too close to call: Wisconsin.”
Test your own assumptions on the interactive Electoral Vote Map.