Jonathan Bernstein: “We must be getting closer to the primaries and caucuses, because Joe Biden’s team on Tuesday began the job of lowering expectations. They’re now making the case that the former vice president could still take the nomination even if he doesn’t win in either Iowa or New Hampshire.”
“As Steve Kornacki correctly says, no one has actually done this since the modern nomination system began in 1972. (And as Kornacki adds, Bill Clinton in 1992 doesn’t count because all the other candidates conceded Iowa to home-state Senator Tom Harkin.)”
“It’s not just that failing to win would hurt Biden; it’s that failing to win would mean someone else won, and that candidate might be well positioned to capitalize on an early victory.”
“Plus, spin only gets you so far. If Biden can’t win, then one of his big supposed advantages – his appeal to voters – will be less credible. Moreover, at this point Biden is thought by most to be the front-runner, and that could make even a strong second-place finish seem disappointing. That means the news about Biden could be quite negative until he manages to win somewhere, especially if party actors turn against him or rally to another candidate. At this point, Biden has the most party endorsements in the race. But his lead could disappear quickly if he loses twice early on.”
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