Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves moving the special Senate election in Arizona from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
Mark Kelly (D) has consistently led appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) in polling, and not just by a little: four surveys in March showed Kelly up anywhere from five to 12 points, a better margin than Biden enjoys in the state (he has led Trump there in polling, but by smaller margins).
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