Here are the national polling averages with 40 days left in previous races:
- 2020: Biden +7.4
- 2016: Clinton +2.8
- 2012: Obama+3.8
- 2008: Obama +1.1
- 2004: Bush +5.0
- 2000: Bush +0.6
- 1996: Clinton +13.9
- 1992: Clinton +11.4
- 1988: Bush +5.1
- 1984: Reagan +16.9
- 1980: Reagan +4.6
- 1976: Carter+4.9