Just published: The Little Blue Book: The Essential Guide to Thinking and Talking Democratic by George Lakoff and Elisabeth Wehling.
“What does this mean? Is 48% a good thing or bad thing? On the one hand, he’s leading and in the high 40s, despite what’s been a rocky and volatile last few weeks (the April jobs numbers, the worries out of Europe, the rushed gay-marriage announcement, etc.). On the other hand, he remains below that important 50% threshold that’s usually considered safe haven for an incumbent president, and Romney is well within striking distance, especially given all of Europe’s economic uncertainty.”
“Bottom line: 48% is really the knife’s edge; not quite close enough where you can just fall over the 50% finish line, but close enough that it doesn’t take much. It’s a number to follow in the months ahead.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Maryland finds a significant increase in support for same-sex marriage among African American voters following President Obama’s historic announcement two weeks ago.
The referendum to keep the state’s new law legalizing same-sex marriage now appears likely to pass by a healthy margin, 57% to 37%, a 12 point shift from a similar survey in early March.
Donald Trump tells Newsmax that he is seriously considering launching his own super PAC.
His goal would be to produce ads against President Obama that show how Washington is permitting outsiders to “absolutely suck the blood out of this country.”
Said Trump: “If I did one I would show how bad we’re doing as a country, how disrespected we are as a country. I would show people from OPEC, 11 people sitting around a beautiful gold-encrusted table talking about how they are going to continue to rip off the United States.”
“I’m so boring that I didn’t even know I was boring.”
— Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH), quoted by the Washington Post.
New NBC Marist polls find President Obama with a narrow advantage over Mitt Romney in three of the most pivotal presidential battleground states — Florida, Ohio and Virginia.
Florida: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 42%
Virginia: Obama 48%, Romney 44%
A new Suffolk University poll in Massachusetts finds Sen. Scott Brown (R) with a slight lead over challenger Elizabeth Warren (D), 48% to 47%.
Said pollster David Paleologos: “Brown has fallen short of the coveted 50% mark for an incumbent, while Elizabeth Warren has converted some undecided voters since February. This leaves both campaigns no choice but to spend tens of millions of dollars in an all-out war to woo the five percent of voters who will decide this election.”
Also interesting: 72% were aware of the recent controversy concerning Warren’s heritage. Of those, 49% said Warren was telling the truth about being part Native American; 28% said she was not telling the truth; and 23% weren’t sure.
“Rehberg was one of several people injured in a 2009 boating wreck when the speedboat he was riding in… slammed into the rocky shore of a lake… The startling photo of the wreck, with the boat entirely out of the water, made most local papers. And now, it’s the feature photo of a boating safety campaign in Montana.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Arizona finds Mitt Romney has now opened back up a seven point lead over President Obama, 50% to 43%.
During the GOP primaries, similar surveys suggested the state might be winnable for Democrats.
The New Republic profiles Bob White, a “longtime-pal-cum-alter-ego” to Mitt Romney.
“White, who is trim with graying brown hair, was one of Romney’s original hires when launching the private-equity firm back in the 1980s. He has been at Romney’s side in every major endeavor he’s undertaken since, from the Olympics to the campaign trail. Over the course of Romney’s career, White has served as debate prepper, personnel vetter, designated gut-checker, in-house historian, and diplomatic envoy. It was White who found Romney a campaign manager for his run for governor, White who headed his transition to the Massachusetts statehouse, White who has chaired his campaigns for president.”
Gallup finds that Americans are about equally likely to have a favorable (42%) as an
unfavorable (45%) view of Joe Biden, which has been the case for most of
his tenure as vice president.
Sasha Issenberg notes that political campaigns used to guess which ads were most effective, but the Obama re-election campaign is trying to prove it using random tests.
“To those familiar with the campaign’s operations, such irregular efforts at paid communication are indicators of an experimental revolution underway at Obama’s Chicago headquarters. They reflect a commitment to using randomized trials… designed to track the impact of campaign messages as voters process them in the real world, instead of relying solely on artificial environments like focus groups and surveys.”
Mitt Romney told Mark Halperin that if he’s elected president “we’d get the unemployment rate down to 6%, and perhaps a little lower.”
However, just a few weeks ago, as NBC News reported, Romney said that anything “over 4% is not cause for celebration.”
ThinkProgress: “Though 6 percent unemployment is significantly lower than the current 8.1 percent rate, the feat isn’t all that remarkable. In fact, it is exactly where multiple government agencies project unemployment will be at the end of that time frame. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that unemployment will average 6.3 percent in 2016; the Office of Management and Budget, meanwhile, projects unemployment will hit 6.1 percent and ultimately fall below 6 percent the same year.”
Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett (R), who questioned whether President Obama should be allowed on the state’s presidential ballot because of citizenship questions, says his office received verification from Hawaiian officials confirming the copy of the Certificate of Live Birth for Obama matches the original record in their files.
Said Bennett: “At the request of numerous constituents, I merely asked Hawaiian officials to verify the information contained within President Obama’s original birth certificate. They have complied with the request and I consider the matter closed.”
“Do not buy into the BS that you hear.”
— White House press secretary Jay Carney, quoted by The Hill, saying it was “a sign of sloth and laziness” that reporters bought into the GOP idea that federal spending increased dramatically under President Obama.
Wonk Wire: The spending spree that never happened.