The new FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast gives Democrats a 34% chance of taking control of the upper chamber in the November midterm elections.
Manafort Doesn’t Want to Flip on Trump
Sources tell ABC News that special counsel Robert Mueller’s office is seeking cooperation from Paul Manafort for information related to President Trump and the 2016 campaign in exchange for a possible plea deal.
However, Manafort is resisting and his team is pushing prosecutors for a plea agreement that does not include cooperation, at least as related to the president.
Gillum Leads In Another Florida Poll
A new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll finds Andrew Gillum (D) leads Ron DeSantis (R) in Florida’s race for governor by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%.
Trump Wanted Braille Removed from Elevators
“President Trump in the early 1980s asked an architect to remove Braille from planned residential elevators in Trump Tower in New York, saying blind people would not live there,” the Washington Post reports.
Barbara Res, a former vice president in charge of construction, made the allegation in a New York Daily News op-ed.
“According to Res’s account, an architect came to Trump’s office to show him designs for the interiors of residential elevator cabs in Trump Tower, which also hosts businesses. He noticed dots next to the buttons and asked what they were… Trump then told the architect to ‘get rid of it,’ and the architect resisted, saying doing so would be against the law.”
Said Trump: “Get rid of the fucking Braille. No blind people are going to live in Trump Tower. Just do it.”
Democrats Hold Wide Lead for Congress
A new NPR/Marist poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 12 percentage points, 50% to 38%.
Earlier today: A Quinnipiac poll has Democrats up by 14 percentage points.
Trump Signs Order to Punish Election Interference
President Trump “signed an executive order mandating that sanctions be placed on foreign entities or individuals determined to have interfered with or have assisted with interference in U.S. elections,” The Hill reports.
“The order, which comes just weeks ahead of November’s midterm elections, will direct U.S. intelligence agencies to investigate whether the election meddling took place. The sanctions would automatically be triggered against a foreign government if they are found to have interfered or influenced elections.”
Washington Post: “Lawmakers of both parties immediately said the effort does not go far enough.”
Unpopular Presidents Lose an Average of 37 House Seats
Gallup: “The president’s party almost always suffers a net loss of U.S. House seats in midterm elections. However, losses tend to be much steeper when the president is unpopular. In Gallup’s polling history, presidents with job approval ratings below 50% have seen their party lose 37 House seats, on average, in midterm elections. That compares with an average loss of 14 seats when presidents had approval ratings above 50%.”
“History, then, is not on the Republicans’ side this fall, as President Donald Trump has a 40% job approval rating two months before the 2018 midterm elections.”
Ken Starr Thinks a President Can Be Indicted
Former independent counsel Ken Starr told MSNBC that he thinks the president can be indicted, but that current Justice Department policy will not allow it.
Said Starr: “I think the president can be indicted, but that is not the position of the Justice Department traditionally, going back to the Nixon-Ford era and continuing through President Clinton’s tenure.”
House Polls Now Predict Election Day Pretty Well
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Trump Sets New Dishonesty Record
President Trump “has broken his own dishonesty record for the third consecutive month,” the Toronto Star reports.
“Trump made 321 false claims in August. That shattered his previous record of 280, in July, which had beaten his previous record of 268, in June.”
Jamie Dimon Says He Could Beat Trump
J.P. Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon “made some interesting comments on today’s political affairs, even though he’s said publicly he won’t run for president and is committed to head the bank for the next five years,” CNBC reports.
Said Dimon: “I think I could beat Trump… because I’m as tough as he is, I’m smarter than he is… I can’t beat the liberal side of the Democratic party.”
Dimon later backtracked, telling Reuters: “I should not have said it. I’m not running for President.”
Suspicious Transfers Followed Trump Tower Meeting
BuzzFeed News: “The June 2016 meeting at Trump Tower has become one of the most famous gatherings in American political history: a flashpoint for allegations of collusion, the subject of shifting explanations by the president and his son, countless hair-on-fire tweets, and boundless speculation by the press.”
“But secret documents reviewed by BuzzFeed News reveal a previously undisclosed aspect of the meeting: a complex web of financial transactions among some of the planners and participants who moved money from Russia and Switzerland to the British Virgin Islands, Bangkok, and a small office park in New Jersey.”
McSally Holds Small Lead In Arizona
A new ABC15/OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Martha McSally (R) leading Kyrsten Sinema (D) by three points in the race for U.S. Senate, 49% to 46%.
This Election Is About Trump, Not Obama
Amy Walter: “While it’s true that Obama was a focal point of GOP anger and angst for the last eight years, he is no longer the most important act in politics. No one can or will overshadow Donald Trump. And, Donald Trump is going to make sure that’s the case.”
“The best thing that could happen for Republicans is not for Obama to become more vocal and active; it’s for Trump to become less vocal and less active. Ask any Republican in a tough campaign what they’d like most from Trump; it’d be to put down his phone, stop threatening to fire Jeff Sessions, and don’t say nice things about Putin. In just the last few weeks, he’s done all three.”
“For the last eight years, Republicans have had effective foils in Obama and Hillary Clinton. This year, however, their biggest impediment to keeping control of the Congress is their own party leader. There’s only so much traction that Obama-bashing will get Republicans if Trump remains as unpopular and polarizing as he is right now.”
Conservatives Push to Make Jordan GOP Leader
“A collection of powerful conservative groups is mounting an aggressive campaign to install Freedom Caucus co-founder Jim Jordan as House speaker or minority leader in the next Congress,” Politico reports.
“The bid to empower a rabble-rouser despised by much of the House Republican Conference will almost surely fall short. But success for the groups doesn’t necessarily require Jordan to end up in the top leadership spot.”
“Their effort could deny California Rep. Kevin McCarthy the 218 votes needed to secure the speakership if Republicans retain the House majority — an outcome conservatives would cheer just as much.”
Bush Joins the Trump Cover Up
Jonathan Chait: “George W. Bush, who declined to endorse Donald Trump (or anybody) in 2016, and made muttered elliptical criticisms of the 45th president, has thrown himself into the task of covering up Trump’s many crimes. Bush, reports Politico, is raising money for candidates who are committed to maintaining the cover-ups.”
“To be sure, Bush doesn’t put it that way, and almost certainly doesn’t think of it that way. But it is syllogistically true. The Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress have followed a course of non-oversight, blocking disclosure of Trump’s tax returns, allowing him to to be paid by figures at home and abroad known only to him, and preventing investigations of multiple cases of misconduct. Working to maintain Republican control of Congress is ipso facto working to maintain the cover-ups.”
Espy Faces Runoff Hurdle In Mississippi
“Mike Espy is running for the runoff — the sort of election that some African Americans have said for years is designed to keep them from winning,” McClatchy reports.
“The runoff is baked into Espy’s campaign strategy against Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith and conservative firebrand Chris McDaniel, Republicans who he’ll face in a so-called ‘jungle’ primary special election Nov. 6 to finish the final two years of GOP Sen. Thad Cochran’s six-year term.”
“The thinking about runoffs goes like this: A black candidate in the South could easily win a multi-candidate primary, as long as they get most of the black vote, which could be as high as the mid-to-low 30s. But in a one-on-one contest, the potential to add to that total is diminished.”
Quote of the Day
“I think he sort of took it for granted. He’s got a dogfight on his hands. I can tell you there’s Beto signs all over my district and there are Beto signs all over deep-red parts of Texas that are unexplainable.”
— Texas state Rep. Lyle Larson (R), quoted by the New York Times, suggesting Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) neglected his re-election race.