Trump Payments May Undermine Privilege Claims
In mid-December last year, the Trump campaign made more than $225,000 in campaign payments to firms owned by Bernard Kerik and Rudy Giuliani — “including more than $50,000 for rooms and suites at the posh Willard hotel in Washington that served as a ‘command center’ for efforts to deny Biden the presidency in the days leading up to the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6,” the Washington Post reports.
“The fact that campaign funds were used to finance efforts to subvert Biden’s victory could complicate the former president’s ongoing attempt to use claims of executive privilege to shield documents and testimony from the congressional committee investigating Jan. 6, according to some legal scholars.”
House Republicans Expand Their Target List
“The National Republican Congressional Campaign Committee expanded its offensive target list on Wednesday morning following Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s loss in Virginia’s gubernatorial contest and a must closer-than-expected race in New Jersey that was too close to call,” The Hill reports.
Said NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer (R-MN): “In a cycle like this, no Democrat is safe.”
Why Manchin Pushed Back
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) was “bombarded with text messages” from House progressives over the weekend and that led to the moderate senator pushing back in a public statement on Monday, Politico reports.
Said one Democratic senator: “He was mad because members kept asking him for more shit.”
Politico: “If you’ve been paying attention this year, progressives yelling at Manchin has only further entrenched him in most cases.”
Widespread Coronavirus Infection Found in Iowa Deer
“A new study of hundreds of white-tailed deer infected with the coronavirus in Iowa has found that the animals probably are contracting the virus from humans, and then rapidly spreading it among one another, according to researchers,” the New York Times reports.
“Scientists said the findings pose worrisome implications for the spread of the coronavirus, although they were not able to identify how the deer might have contracted the virus from humans. There is no evidence that deer have passed the virus back to humans.”
Fed Prepares to Start Tapering
“The Federal Reserve will announce at its meeting this week a scaling back of its enormous pandemic-related stimulus program amid uncertainty over persistent inflationary pressures and whether the US central bank will need to raise interest rates sooner than expected,” the Financial Times reports.
New York Voters Reject Election Reforms
“New York voters appeared to reject three ballot proposals that would have implemented reforms favored by elected Democrats, including same-day voter registration and a measure that would have allowed anyone to cast an absentee ballot,” the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle reports.
A Post-Trump Road Map for Republicans
Aaron Blake: “Not to make everything about Trump, but the GOP’s ability to distance itself from him — and Democrats’ ability or inability to tie Republicans to him — matters in upcoming elections, especially with Trump out of office.”
“Youngkin provided a road map for the GOP when Trump isn’t front-of-mind for most people. Whether Trump will stay so out-of-mind ahead of the 2024 election is a very relevant question.”
“What also matters is whether Republicans can actually put forward candidates like Youngkin and perhaps Ciattarelli who can effectively craft their own brand. That’s especially true given how much some top GOP Senate candidates have tied themselves to Trump in the service of winning primaries — and how much Republicans might nominate candidates more extreme and with more baggage than Youngkin because they have Trump’s backing.”
Biden Just Isn’t Very Popular Right Now
Jonathan Bernstein: “You’re going to hear plenty of explanations, but if you actually want to know what happened, it’s pretty straightforward. This is the 11th out of the last 12 times that the president’s party lost the Virginia gubernatorial election — the numbers in New Jersey are similar — and with President Joe Biden currently at 43% approval measured by public opinion polls, the result was pretty much what one would expect.”
“If Biden is at 43% or lower a year from now, the chances are very good that Republicans will win big in the midterms. Of course, the next question is why Biden’s popularity has slumped, but the bulk of that is surely about the latest pandemic wave and a mediocre economic quarter. Sure, other things may have mattered on the margins, both for Biden’s popularity and the Virginia and New Jersey elections, and the margins can be extremely important when it comes to winning and losing. But the big picture isn’t very complicated. Republicans are doing well because there’s an incumbent Democrat president, and he’s not very popular right now.”
Geoffrey Skelley: “One inescapable fact about this election is that it took place in an environment that was favorable to Republicans. There’s no better indicator of that than President Biden’s poor approval rating, which stood at about 43% coming into Election Day in FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker.”
Democratic Infighting Intensifies
New York Times: “Moderate Democrats argued that the defeat was a sign that Congress must immediately pass the party’s infrastructure bill, regardless of what happens with the shrunken version of Mr. Biden’s legislative agenda. The left blamed the failure of the party to push a broader agenda, including overturning the filibuster to pass liberal priorities like bills protecting the right to vote.”
“And political strategists fear that the party is failing to adequately communicate what Democrats have already done to help the Covid-ravaged country and why they haven’t delivered on issues important to their base.”
Washington Post: “Democratic officials and strategists said that to counteract what unfolded in Virginia — strong anti-Democratic and anti-Biden energy driving the conservative base and suburban independents to vote Republican — the party needs to significantly improve its economic pitch, engage with young voters, voters of color and women under 50 far earlier and more aggressively than they have this year and renew efforts to recruit a more diverse slate of candidates.”
Youngkin Stayed Close to Trump During Campaign
Washington Post: “Republican candidate Glenn Youngkin and Trump repeatedly spoke by phone over the course of the campaign, according to people familiar with the conversations who were not authorized to speak publicly, allowing the two men to go the length of the contest without saying negative things about each other or clashing on strategy.”
Biden May Have Mattered More Than Trump
Playbook: “According to exit polls, Biden was about as unpopular as Trump in Virginia. But Biden embraced the race as a referendum on his presidency and campaigned in the state while Trump, to his great annoyance, was persuaded to stay away.”
Deja Vu?
Punchbowl News: “This is all reminiscent of 2009, when Republicans swept both states on their way to massive victories in the 2010 midterms. They captured the House that cycle — ending Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s first run atop the chamber — and picked up seven Senate seats. The 2022 Senate map isn’t that good for Republicans, but they’re clearly the heavy favorites to win the House again next year. If the GOP does so, Pelosi would be the first speaker since Republican Joseph Martin to lose the majority twice (1948 and 1954). That’s not a list she wants to be on.”
Playbook: “History strongly suggests that the midterms will deliver the next big blow to the incumbent president. But the more immediate danger for Biden is his precarious legislative agenda.”
New Jersey Governor’s Race Too Close to Call
“In a shocker, the contest, once seen as a shoo-in for Gov. Phil Murphy, remained too close to call Wednesday, with results so far showing the Democratic governor and Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli less than 1 percentage point apart,” NJ.com reports.
Youngkin Wins Virginia Governor’s Race
“Virginia voters chose Republican Glenn Youngkin as their next governor, dramatic reversal for a state that had appeared solidly Democratic in recent years and a significant loss for President Biden and the party’s establishment,” the Washington Post reports.
“Youngkin is now a bright new star for the GOP — a basketball-playing business tycoon who navigated the trickiest path in politics, appealing to moderate voters while still bringing out the most enthusiastic followers of Trump.”
Trump Gloats Over Virginia Results
Former President Donald Trump is gloating over Glenn Youngkin’s (R) likely win in the Virginia governor’s race, The Hill reports.
Said Trump: “It is looking like Terry McAuliffe’s campaign against a certain person named ‘Trump’ has very much helped Glenn Youngkin. All McAuliffe did was talk Trump, Trump, Trump and he lost!”
He added: “I guess people running for office as Democrats won’t be doing that too much longer. I didn’t even have to go rally for Youngkin, because McAuliffe did it for me. Thank you to the MAGA voters for turning out big!”
Minneapolis Voters Reject Plan to Abolish Police
“Minneapolis voters on Tuesday soundly rejected a proposal to replace the Minneapolis Police Department, crushing the hopes of supporters that outrage over the killing of George Floyd would translate into one of the nation’s most far reaching experiments in transforming public safety,” the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.