Pittsburgh Newspaper Backs Trump
The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, which has not endorsed a Republican for president since Richard Nixon in 1972, backed Donald Trump’s reelection in an editorial.
James Hohmann: “John Robinson Block, the newspaper’s publisher and former editor-in-chief – who directs the paper’s editorial page – has been photographed on a private plane with Trump and became known nationally for his firing of an anti-Trump cartoonist and writing an editorial that defended Trump’s language toward immigrants.”
Kemp May Not Be Able to Vote In Georgia
“Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) might not be able to vote because he’s in quarantine after close contact with Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-GA), who tested positive for the coronavirus Friday,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“Kemp, who tested negative for the virus, has requested an absentee ballot… But an absentee ballot requested Friday is unlikely to arrive in the mail before polls close Tuesday. Georgia law and a court ruling required all absentee ballots to be received by county election officials before 7 p.m. on Election Day.”
The Four States to Watch on Election Night
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Final Forecast Shows Sweep for Democrats
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball‘s final Electoral College ratings show Joe Biden at 321 electoral votes and Donald Trump at 217.
Democrats are narrow favorites to capture a Senate majority, 50 to 48 with two Toss-ups — the two Georgia races, both of which we think are likely to go to runoffs.
Democrats will net 10 seats in the House.
Predictions for Election Night
Henry Olsen today released his sixth biennial election prediction essay, and what he calls “perhaps the easiest” of them all.
He writes: “Former vice president Joe Biden will win comfortably unless we experience the greatest polling failure in modern history. Democrats will also gain control of the Senate and expand their majority in the House. While not the landslide that some hope for, Democrats will simultaneously control the presidency and both houses of Congress for only the third time since Ronald Reagan’s election in 1980. That alone is a historic achievement that will give them the upper hand to determine the next stage of our ongoing national crisis.”
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Biden Keeps Big National Lead
A new GW Politics poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally, 52% to 41%.
Trump Would Need Massive Polling Error to Win
Nate Cohn: “President Trump’s surprising victory in 2016 gave him an aura of political invincibility. But he’s in a far bigger predicament now than the one he faced heading into Election Day in 2016. The polls show Joe Biden with a far more significant lead than the one held by Hillary Clinton, and many of the likeliest explanations for the polling misfire do not appear to be in play today.”
“Over at The Upshot, I go into the ways the polls are different today than they were in 2016, and what sort of polling error Mr. Trump would need to win at this point. (A big one.)”
Swing State Poll Finds No Late Shift to Trump
Support for President Trump and Joe Biden in a group of battleground states has remained unchanged in recent days, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, finding little evidence of the kind of last-minute shift toward Mr. Trump that helped him win four years ago.
The poll, conducted on Sunday in 12 states in which the election is most competitive, finds Mr. Biden leading, 51% to 46%, essentially unchanged from a survey late last week.
First Read has important context: Trump won these same states by a combined 2 points in 2016, 49% to 47%.
More Battleground State Polls
From Aspiration:
- FLORIDA: Biden 45%, Trump 43%
- GEORGIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%
- PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
From Public Policy Polling:
- IOWA: Biden 49%, Trump 48%
From Research & Co.
- MICHIGAN: Biden 50%, Trump 43%
- MINNESOTA: Biden 52%, Trump 43%
- OHIO: Biden 47%, Trump 47%
- PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 50%, Trump 44%
- WISCONSIN: Biden 50%, Trump 42%
From Frederick Polls:
- FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
- NORTH CAROLINA: Biden 51%, Trump 49%
- PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 52%, Trump 48%
For more, see our earlier polling roundup and the latest electoral vote map.
Twitter Names Seven Media Outlets to Call Races
“Twitter provided more details about its policies around tweets that declare election results, and named the seven outlets it will lean on to help it determine whether a race is officially called,” Axios reports.
The list includes ABC News, AP, CNN, CBS News, Decision Desk HQ, Fox News and NBC News — all outlets that experts agree have verified, unbiased decision desks calling elections.
Trump’s Stock Market Gains Fall Short of Obama’s
“President Trump has presided over a stock market surge since taking office in 2017, but he’s been outpaced by three of his four predecessors,” Axios reports.
“The S&P 500 grew by 44.5% since Trump’s inauguration through the end of October 2020. This comes up short of former President Obama’s 66.1% through the comparable time period, but well above the -15.8% for former President George W. Bush.”
Democrats Should See Big House Gains
The Cook Political Report final House outlook shows a Democratic net gain of 10 to 15 seats, with anything from 5 to 20 seats well within the range of possibility.
Germany Launches Partial Shutdown
Associated Press: “A four-week partial shutdown has started in Germany, with restaurants, bars, theaters, cinemas and other leisure facilities closing down until the end of the month in a drive to flatten a rapid rise in coronavirus infections.”
How Stacey Abrams Got Biden to Take Georgia Seriously
Ryan Lizza: “If there is one person who is both most responsible for Georgia’s emergence as a competitive state, and most likely to benefit from a Democratic victory here, it is Stacey Abrams. The 2018 Democratic gubernatorial candidate’s near miss — she lost by 1.4 points — made Georgia the new North Carolina: a recently red Southern state undergoing dramatic demographic change that has made it competitive for the foreseeable future.”
Young Voters Could Fuel Blue Wave for Years
“Young voters, projected to turn out overwhelmingly for Joe Biden, could provide a huge advantage for Democrats not just this for this election, but for decades to come,” Axios reports.
Judge Orders Postal Service to Expedite Ballots
A federal judge ordered the U.S. Postal Service to remind senior managers they must follow its “extraordinary measures” policy and use its Express Mail Network to expedite ballots ahead of Tuesday’s presidential election, Reuters reports.