The new Decision Desk forecast predicts that Joe Biden has an 85.6% chance of winning the presidency.
The current forecast is Biden with 313 electoral votes and Trump with 225, very close to our consensus forecast.
The new Decision Desk forecast predicts that Joe Biden has an 85.6% chance of winning the presidency.
The current forecast is Biden with 313 electoral votes and Trump with 225, very close to our consensus forecast.
Green That Life: “We are all addicts. Addicts of single-use plastic, that is. Most of us know about the polluting effects of continued disposable plastic use. We’ve seen the heartbreaking photos of wildlife choking on plastic straws, caps, and plastic bags. We may even have experienced flooding caused by plastic-clogged waterways. But the craving for convenience is relentless and plastic production continues.”
“As we struggle to overcome mounting piles of plastic waste, we face a new onslaught of plastic production that risks plummeting our planet into a deeper environmental crisis.”
First Read: “The bad news for Trump is that he still has a 50 percent problem in the poll — where half (if not more) of the national electorate is firmly against him. And that’s a tough place for any incumbent to be.”
Consider these numbers:
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Former Gov. John Kasich (R) told BuzzFeed News that it was Democrats who approached him to speak at their convention.
Said Kasich: “This was not something that I instigated. And when they came and asked, ‘Do you want to do it?’ I had to think about it, right? I had to think about it. And it’s not like I’m gonna be turning around. I’m a Republican. But I just think that at this point in time, my Republican affiliation is outweighed by my concern about the direction of the country.”
President Trump commented on Fox & Friends about the death of his brother Robert: “He was my friend. I guess they say best friend, and that’s true.”
He went on to say: “There was no jealousy. You know a lot of time in families, I hate to say it but there’s jealousy, especially among children and among children that are competitive children… there was not an ounce of jealousy.”
He added: “He was my biggest fan.”
“The Trump administration is set to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska to oil drilling for the first time, making it difficult to unwind the decision should Democrats recapture the White House in November,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Cook Political Report: “While there are still large hurdles that remain for Harrison to become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from South Carolina since 1998, it’s clear this race is becoming more competitive, and Graham faces an incredibly strong challenge.”
“In the races in our Likely Republican column, this is also the one some national Republicans view as the more competitive. We are moving South Carolina from Likely to Lean Republican.”
“New Zealand delayed a national election by about a month after a coronavirus outbreak in its largest city of Auckland put a third of voters into lockdown,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The election, which was expected to be dominated by debate over the government’s response to the pandemic, will now be held on Oct. 17, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said Monday.”
Associated Press: “The outbreak in the nation’s largest city has grown to 58 infections.”
Washington Post: “Before the pandemic, it was called ‘the homework gap,’ because of the growing number of teachers who assigned homework that required Internet access. Now, as the pandemic forces many schools to switch to remote learning, disconnected students will miss more than homework. They’ll miss all of school.”
“Sen. Ed Markey is going where few Massachusetts Democrats have dared to go before. He’s not only attacking his challenger, Rep. Joe Kennedy III, he’s throwing shade at the Kennedy family, the state’s equivalent of political royalty,” Politico reports.
“In an ever more contentious battle between a septuagenarian senator and the scion of one of the nation’s best-known dynasties, Markey is calling out specific Kennedy family members by name, needling the wealth and privilege that attaches to the family name, and even drawing from the Kennedy myth in his bid to fend off his youthful challenger.”
New York Times: “That it is not normal for a president to employ transparently racist and sexist attacks. Or pressure his attorney general to prosecute his foes with an election looming. Or resist money for the Postal Service in order to stop people from voting by mail. Or embrace a conspiracy theorist running for Congress. Or condemn American cities to ‘rot.'”
“President Trump, of course, long ago redefined what constitutes normal in the White House, but with 77 days left in a campaign that polls show he is losing, he is pushing all the boundaries at once. At the same time the champion of birtherism is again scraping the raw edges of America’s divisions over race, gender and national origin, he is propelling fringe ideas into mainstream conversation. And now, running as the incumbent, he has levers of power available to help salvage a flagging campaign.”
“Yet what once would have caused jaws to drop barely seems to register for long at this point because it is so quickly overshadowed by the next norm-busting statement or action.”
Associated Press: “Forced to abandon their in-person convention in Milwaukee because of the pandemic, Democrats begin their all-virtual affair on Monday night. There will be no physical gathering place, no cheering audience, no balloons. The program will consist of a series of online video addresses — roughly half of which will be prerecorded — that play out for two hours each night until Biden formally accepts the Democratic presidential nomination Thursday in a mostly empty Delaware ballroom.”
“While that may sound underwhelming, the last hour of the speaking program each night will be broadcast live on network television and feature the Democratic Party’s elite: Barack Obama and Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Bernie Sanders and Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Even a Republican former Gov. John Kasich, will speak on Biden’s behalf.”
Washington Post: “In two-hour nightly chunks, only one hour of which the broadcast networks have vowed to air, the live footage will be mixed in real time with a roughly equal share of prerecorded performances, mini-documentaries and speeches.”
Vox: The all-virtual convention explained.
Politico: “A spate of new polling conducted just before the back-to-back Democratic and Republican conventions, which kick off on Monday, shows that Biden’s advantage remains significant, though there are signs the race has tightened slightly from earlier in the summer.”
“While Biden’s lead has shrunk modestly, Trump has not yet closed the gap enough to markedly improve his underdog odds of winning reelection. Any advantage he holds on the states that make up an Electoral College majority — which allowed him to win the presidency four years ago despite receiving 2.9 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton — is insufficient to overcome his current deficit.”
The consensus electoral map shows Biden at 320 electoral votes.
“A select group of officials have grown increasingly frustrated with Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger—for putting on a mask shortly after the coronavirus outbreak was declared a pandemic,” the Daily Beast reports.
“Months later, these senior officials still trash Pottinger behind closed doors for his decision to wear a mask at a time when their boss, President Donald Trump, and other senior administration officials chose to avoid wearing face coverings… Some of those close to Trump viewed Pottinger’s mask-wearing as an indication that the deputy national security adviser was publicly challenging the president.”
US intelligence agencies assessed that Iran offered bounties to Taliban fighters for targeting American and coalition troops in Afghanistan, identifying payments linked to at least six attacks carried out by the militant group just last year alone, including a suicide bombing at a US air base in December, CNN reports.
Melania Trump has once again been caught on camera appearing to brush off attempts by her husband Donald to hold her hand.
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds Joe Biden holds a 12 percentage-point lead over Donald Trump among registered voters, 53% to 41%, and a similar 10 points among likely voters, 54% to 44%.
Key finding: Just 14% of Americans say the coronavirus pandemic is under control.
Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich told CNN there’s a prominent former Republican congressman that is going to endorse Joe Biden tomorrow.
He declined to say who it was.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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