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Iran War Stalemate Drags On

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Bloomberg: “A month has now passed since Donald Trump announced an indefinite ceasefire with Iran, and the tense stalemate looms over the start of Americans’ summer travel season, with no end in sight.”

“Heading into a holiday weekend in which 45 million people in the US plan to travel (and 87% by car), the average gallon of gas was up to $4.55 on Friday, according to AAA. It’s 42% higher than a year ago, and could keep going.”

“That’s economic and political pressure all in one, and the endgame remains elusive.”

What the DNC Autopsy Report Completely Ignored

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G. Elliot Morris: “But the biggest problem is that the autopsy straight up ignores the major reasons Harris lost in 2024. Yes, it’s bad enough that the report doesn’t mention that party bosses failed to coordinate an early exit for Joe Biden, who was too unpopular to win. And there is no mention of Israel/Gaza, low turnout in the cities, and nothing on Harris’s race or gender. But this is a data-driven site, so I want to really focus in on what the numbers can tell us.”

“When we boot up the data, it’s obvious the main reason Harris lost — and the reason I am going to explore here, at this website, it being a data-driven website — is that 2024 simply had too much inflation-induced anti-incumbent sentiment for the incumbent party to overcome. This is curiously missing from its main diagnosis. The word ‘inflation’ isn’t mentioned in the autopsy a single time.”

Exchange of the Day

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Rep. Ralph Norman (R-SC) took questions from reporters:

NORMAN: January 6th was an issue that was made up in the first place.

REPORTER: Made up?

NORMAN: That was a staged thing from day one.

REPORTER: The riot was staged? Your Republican colleagues barricaded themselves in their chamber. You think they were acting?

Trump’s Grip Starts to Slip

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Donald Trump’s biggest problem right now may not be Democrats.

It may be Senate Republicans.

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Economic Confidence Is Plummeting

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Washington Post: “Americans’ confidence in the economy has hit a nearly four-year low, according to a new poll, underscoring a growing problem for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections as President Donald Trump struggles to deliver on his campaign pledge to make life more affordable.”

“Just 16 percent of U.S. adults rate the economy ‘excellent’ or ‘good,’ according to the Gallup poll, which was released Friday. An additional 34 percent rate the economy as ‘only fair,’ while 49 percent say it is ‘poor.'”

“Economic confidence has declined steadily in recent months among Americans across the political spectrum, as the war in Iran drives a sharp increase in inflation and gas prices. Three out of four Americans say economic conditions are getting worse.”

Trump Faces a Symbolic Blow

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“President Donald Trump’s war threatens to push gas prices past the record high under former President Joe Biden. They aren’t the only numbers the White House staff is sweating,” Politico reports.

“While record high prices at the pump are a persistent concern, the bond market’s spike over the last several days also has aides and allies fretting, worried that borrowing costs will pummel a nation that runs on credit and make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.”

“The two moving in tandem are a double whammy for a White House working to assuage voters’ cost-of-living concerns ahead of an expected difficult midterm election.”

Trump’s Revenge Politics Comes Back to Haunt Him

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“President Trump’s week started in triumph when he took out a pair of Republican adversaries up for re-election — but it’s ending in a rare moment of Republican resistance, largely of his own making,” Axios reports.

“Trump has spent the better part of a decade steamrolling congressional Republicans, but the costs of his revenge campaign — and some politically toxic priorities — have finally caught up with him.”

Stephen Collinson: Trump’s second term is increasingly about one thing: Trump.

DNC Chair Under Fire

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“Democratic National Committee chair Ken Martin is facing a surge of anger and even some calls to resign from congressional Democrats following the release of the DNC’s 2024 election autopsy on Thursday,” Axios reports.

“The chaotic handling of the report builds on concerns among Democrats about Martin’s leadership and the DNC’s anemic fundraising numbers compared to its GOP counterpart.”

Cuba Has Few Defenses if the U.S. Moves Against It

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“Cuba’s armed forces once fielded tens of thousands of well-trained soldiers during the height of the Cold War, deploying to conflicts from Angola to Syria,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Today, as the U.S. sends an aircraft carrier to the Caribbean in a pressure campaign to change the island’s Communist government, Cuba’s military is a ghost of its former self.”

“Until the decline and fall of its benefactor, the Soviet Union, Cuba had an army of more than 200,000 soldiers. Now that force is down to some 40,000 to 45,000 active-duty soldiers divided in three parts to defend the country’s east, west and center.”

Audit Immunity for Trump Family Puts IRS in a Bind

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“President Trump’s return to office has been an unforgiving crucible for the hidebound Internal Revenue Service. He and his aides have decimated its ranks, fired and replaced its leaders and made repeated attempts to enlist the agency in his quest for political retribution,” the New York Times reports.

“Now, as part of an arrangement drawn up this week by Todd Blanche, the acting attorney general, the I.R.S. faces its most profound legal and ethical test yet: a demand to drop any audits of Mr. Trump, his family members or their affiliates.”

“Tax lawyers and former I.R.S. officials said such expansive protection would cut to the core of the agency’s mission to collect taxes in a disinterested, nonpartisan way — and could potentially run afoul of the laws governing how it does so.”

In a Rarity, Republicans Stand Up to Trump

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New York Times: “Through revenge primary campaigns, bullying social media posts and the threat that he can command the G.O.P. base to go after anyone at any time, Mr. Trump has brought lawmakers in his party under his control like no president in modern history. A single critical word against Mr. Trump or his agenda could result in a full-scale retribution campaign to force a disloyal Republican from office.”

“But this week, in a rarity in G.O.P. politics, Mr. Trump’s taunts, bullying and threats have backfired, at least for now. Senate Republicans, after the president targeted two of their own, stood up to Mr. Trump on two of his biggest priorities: money for his White House ballroom, and a $1.8 billion fund to reward Trump supporters who claim political persecution by Democrats, such as the rioters who attacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.”

Senate Republicans Hit Their Limit with Trump

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Punchbowl News: “Eventually, Senate Republicans were going to prioritize their own political survival over President Donald Trump’s wants and needs.”

“They have. But it just might be too late.”

“Despite the headwinds they knew they’d face in a midterm year, Republicans were confident their Senate majority wasn’t in real trouble. The 2026 Senate map is favorable to the GOP, and they’re starting with 53 seats. Losing the majority was once inconceivable.”

“Yet less than six months from Election Day, Trump’s approval numbers are historically bad. Many Republicans fear Trump is determined to bring them down with him — along with their shared legislative agenda.”

Limits of Power

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The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live.

Trump’s power over Republicans remains immense in primaries, but it is starting to hit real limits on Capitol Hill.

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Iran and Oman in Talks Over Strait of Hormuz Payments

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“Iran has discussed partnering with the Gulf state of Oman — an American ally — in a system charging fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, ignoring the Trump administration’s warnings against demands for payment to pass through the critical international waterway,” the New York Times reports.

“It is unclear whether anything concrete will come out of the discussions. But the talks appear to signal that the United States and Iran are no closer to ending a war that has badly damaged the global economy despite repeated claims to the contrary by President Trump. At least publicly, neither side has shown a willingness to compromise.”

Republicans Say This Mess Is on Trump

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Punchbowl News: “Usually after a calamitous day like today, lawmakers spend hours filling our ears and heads with anecdotes about how their leadership screwed up.”

“But after Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Speaker Mike Johnson sent lawmakers home Thursday for the Memorial Day recess without passing the reconciliation bill, there is shocking unanimity about who is to blame.”

“President Donald Trump and his White House.”

“Republicans have tended to bite their tongue in the past when asked about Trump’s missteps. But not this time.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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