Political Wire

Democrats May Have Targeted the Wrong Voters

November 10, 2014 at 12:23 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 19 Comments

The Daily Beast has learned that “in the crucial swing states of Iowa, North Carolina, and Colorado, the DSCC made a decision in September to put an increased emphasis on persuasion, talking undecided voters into supporting Democratic candidates rather than turning out its base voters. In other words, instead of going after the type of people who reliably vote Democrat but don’t reliably show up on Election Day, they focused on voters who were somewhat more likely to vote but hadn’t firmly made up their minds”

“These undecided, persuadable voters were identified via a computer model that ranked and ordered voters as targets of persuasion not just through volunteer contact but through direct-mail paid media as well. The problem was that, at least in Iowa, this model was imperfect… Initial data indicate that more than 60 percent of voters in this group who actually turned out on Election Day supported Republican candidates.”

Quote of the Day

November 10, 2014 at 12:14 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

“I think all the polls show if she does run, she’ll win the Democrat nomination. But I don’t think it’s for certain. It’s a very taxing undertaking to go through. It’s a rigorous physical ordeal, I think, to be able to campaign for the presidency.”

— Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), quoted by Politico, “none too subtly” suggesting that 67-year old Hillary Clinton may be too old to run for president.

Tweet of the Day

November 10, 2014 at 12:09 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 47 Comments

“Net Neutrality” is Obamacare for the Internet; the Internet should not operate at the speed of government.

— Senator Ted Cruz (@SenTedCruz) November 10, 2014

Obama Seeks to Shake Lame Duck Label

November 10, 2014 at 11:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“Within hours of landing here on Monday, President Obama took credit for the release of two Americans detained in North Korea, defended his decision to send more military trainers to Iraq, vowed to expand trade with Asia and unilaterally extended the life of U.S. visas held by Chinese students, businesspeople and tourists,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“With the efficacy of his waning presidency in question, Obama began a weeklong trip to Asia and Australia seemingly bent on demonstrating the tools still at his disposal.”

Obama Backs Net Neutrality

November 10, 2014 at 11:44 am EST By Taegan Goddard 23 Comments

President Obama “put the full weight of his administration behind an open and free Internet, calling for a strict policy of so-called net neutrality and formally opposing deals in which content providers like Netflix would pay huge sums to broadband companies for faster access to their customers,” the New York Times reports.

“The president’s proposal is consistent with his longstanding support for rules that seek to prevent cable and telephone companies from providing special access to some content providers. But the statement posted online Monday, as Mr. Obama traveled to Asia, is the most direct effort by the president to influence the debate about the Internet’s future.”

Tech Crunch notes Obama laid out “in no uncertain terms that he believes no cable company or access provider should be able to put limits on access to the Internet.”

Obamacare Back in the Spotlight

November 10, 2014 at 9:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

First Read: “The newest round of open enrollment under the Affordable Care Act begins in less than a week, just as the law comes under a new threat with the Supreme Court’s decision that it will hear a new challenge questioning its government subsidies.. The case raises the stakes for HealthCare.gov too; the last thing the Obama administration needs is a repeat of last year’s embarrassing technical glitches. On the flip side, the lawsuit could have an important political effect: It could give GOP leaders Mitch McConnell and John Boehner leeway to avoid dealing with the issue of health care right away. By having a court case to point to, Republicans could delay the health care showdown between their party and the White House – and even one within the GOP itself.”

“Congressional midterm losses aside — when it comes to health care, Democrats might be even more stung by the party’s big losses in governors’ mansions and state legislatures last Tuesday. Democrats were counting on a few more gubernatorial wins, which would have boosted the number of states expanding Medicaid or starting state exchanges. The more folks who are insured through ACA, the more entrenched the law becomes – which in turn makes it harder to dismantle.”

Wonk Wire: Could the Supreme Court destroy Obamacare?

Lowest Midterm Election Turnout Since World War II

November 10, 2014 at 9:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard 27 Comments

Morning Line: “Final numbers are still being tallied, but at this point it looks pretty clear that turnout in these midterms was the lowest overall in 70 years. Turnout of the voting-eligible population was just 36.4 percent, according to the projection from the United States Elections Project, run by Dr. Michael McDonald at the University of Florida. That’s down from the 41 percent that turned out in 2010. You have to go all the way back to 1942 for lower numbers when turnout in that midterm was just 33.9 percent. They had a pretty good excuse back then — many adult-age Americans were preoccupied with fighting in a world war.”

Wonk Wire: The impact of voter ID laws on election turnout

Walker Hints at White House Bid

November 10, 2014 at 8:59 am EST By Taegan Goddard 26 Comments

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker (R) dropped hints that he is considering a run for president in 2016, the Huffington Post reports.

Said Walker: “I care deeply about not only my state but my country. We’ll see what the future holds.”

“It’s no secret that Walker has his eye on the White House. In 2011, his battle against unions’ collective bargaining rights propelled him to the national spotlight and popularized him among conservatives. He survived a recall and won three elections in a battleground state that tends lean blue.”

Clinton Challengers Line Up On Her Left

November 10, 2014 at 8:28 am EST By Taegan Goddard 44 Comments

Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley (D), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and former Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) told the New Yorker they are considering challenging Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination by attacking her from the left.

“The history of Democratic primaries suggests that an insurgent can’t expect to gain recognition with only a fresh face and a superior organization. Inevitably, the candidate must attack the front-runner from the left.”

Bloomberg: Clinton crushing her rivals on Facebook and Twitter

An Inside Look at Rand Paul’s Rollout

November 10, 2014 at 8:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) “has made key decisions about how to launch his presidential campaign for the 2016 Republican nomination, including a plan to headquarter his effort in Louisville and opting to run for re-election to the Senate at the same time he moves forward with the national race. Coming off a midterm campaign blitz in 35 states, Paul has summoned a few dozen advisers – a mix of veterans of his father Ron Paul’s insurgent campaigns and more mainstream GOP leaders — for a closed-door summit at a Washington hotel on Wednesday to discuss his future plans,” Politico reports.

“Within the next few weeks, Paul is set to announce that he’ll run for reelection to the Senate in 2016 – a race that he is likely to run simultaneously with a presidential campaign… If Paul won the presidential nomination, he might focus on that race and drop the Senate campaign.”

Obama Feels Liberated by Loss of Democratic Senate

November 10, 2014 at 7:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard 16 Comments

“The morning after Democrats’ thrashing in the midterm elections, President Barack Obama unexpectedly dropped by his senior staff’s daily meeting to buck up his exhausted and defeated team,” the AP reports.

“Rather than bemoan his party’s loss of control in the Senate, Obama made an impassioned case for what he saw as the opportunities ahead and argued that his team still ran the most powerful institution in the world. He would echo those sentiments hours later in a post-election news conference, displaying a sunny outlook that ran counter to the electorate’s gloomy mood.”

“White House officials say Obama’s optimism reflects a president who feels liberated by even the limited prospects for striking deals with a Republican Congress and relieved about shedding the narrow Democratic majority that would have guaranteed Washington stayed locked in a stalemate.”

Huffington Post: Big review planned by Democrats in the wake of losses

O’Malley Had Staff in 7 States

November 10, 2014 at 7:53 am EST By Taegan Goddard 2 Comments

Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley’s (D) political action committee “dispatched and paid for a total of 32 staffers to aid candidates and state parties in Iowa, New Hampshire and other battleground states during the mid-term elections,” the Washington Post reports.

“O’Malley, who is weighing a 2016 White House bid, gathered with many of the campaign workers at a lunch in Baltimore on Friday, but it is unclear how many will remain employed by his political operation.”

Low Approval No Longer a Barrier to Re-Election

November 10, 2014 at 7:45 am EST By Taegan Goddard 5 Comments

“Last’s week election saw a slew of unpopular politicians get elected or reelected despite approval ratings in the mid- or even low-40s. It’s in part a product of voter disgust with both parties and a race-to-the-bottom political climate, in which both sides nuke their rival early and often and public opinion of Congress and institutions is extremely low,” Politico reports.

“While there have been politicians in the past who have been reelected with weak approval ratings, the spate of tight races with people with a net negative favorable ratings was unusual this cycle. Instead of punishing the candidate who goes negative first, voters have become inured to the idea that both of them will. And approval ratings are no longer a reliable indicator of electability.”

Reagan Had Secret Tapes Too

November 10, 2014 at 7:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard 1 Comment

President Ronald Reagan “secretly recorded some of his conversations with foreign leaders, discovered author William Doyle,” who shared some of these never-heard tapes exclusively with the New York Post.

“Doyle said Reagan recorded many, but not all, of his phone calls with heads of state through the Situation Room switchboard, so that an accurate record could be kept of conversations that often included translators and bad connections.”

Cuomo Had Secret Pact with Republicans

November 10, 2014 at 7:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard 22 Comments

Fred Dicker: “The state’s most powerful Republican secretly worked for months to help Democratic Gov. Cuomo win re-election — in exchange for Cuomo’s promise not to aid Senate Democrats in their Long Island races, a top New York GOP leader has charged.”

“Former state Republican Party Executive Director Michael Lawler — who managed Rob Astorino’s ill-fated gubernatorial run against Cuomo — told The Post that he learned of the alleged bombshell deal between Senate GOP leader Dean Skelos and Cuomo just days ago, after suspecting for months that it existed.”

Clinton May Run Campaign from New York Suburbs

November 10, 2014 at 7:05 am EST By Taegan Goddard 1 Comment

“Hillary Clinton has yet to say for certain whether she’ll run for president, or for that matter, who her campaign manager or what her message would be. But this much she has settled on: If a second presidential campaign happens, it will not be run out of Washington, D.C,” Politico reports.

“Her aides are all preparing for a campaign based in New York — and talks about where to set up shop have increasingly focused on Westchester County, according to several people familiar with the discussions.”

GOP Opens Narrow Path to White House

November 10, 2014 at 6:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

“After five of six presidential elections in which the Republicans have lost the popular vote, this year’s midterm elections point toward a plausible Republican path to winning the White House,” Nate Cohn writes.

“The Democratic losses were not simply because of low turnout. Republicans often made significant gains among rural, white voters. Some candidates made inroads among young and Hispanic voters, as well, according to exit polls and county and precinct-level results. But the Republican path is also narrow, one the Democrats could block if they reassemble their support among the young, nonwhite and suburban voters whom President Obama won in 2008 and 2012. In the simplest of terms, Republicans made progress this year toward solving their demographic problems, but not enough.”

Demographics Won’t Save Democrats

November 10, 2014 at 6:09 am EST By Taegan Goddard 8 Comments

Will Marshall said that Democrats can’t count on demographics to save them.

“Since Obama’s 2008 election, the party has beguiled itself with prospects for a permanent Democratic majority based on forces that are growing in the electorate: minorities, millennials, single and college-educated women, and professionals with advanced degrees. These groups turn out in greater numbers in presidential elections, giving Democrats a presumptive advantage heading into 2016.”

“But the president suffered some erosion of his big margins with such voters in 2012, and there’s no guarantee that the party’s 2016 standard-bearer will be able to recreate the Obama coalition. Polls have shown growing disillusionment with Obama among young voters, who have been slammed by a perfect storm of scarce jobs, falling incomes, and soaring student debt. They mostly stayed home last Tuesday; just 12 percent of the voters were under 30.”

“Nor do Democrats have a lock on Hispanic voters, who still face slack labor markets, zero wage growth, and tight credit even as the “recovery” skews most of its benefits to the top 2 percent. Many also are disappointed about the party’s failure to deliver on its promises to pass immigration reform.”

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