Political Wire

Labrador Will Run for Idaho Governor

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Rep. Raúl Labrador (R-ID) filed paperwork to run for governor and promised a formal candidacy announcement in the “coming weeks,” an expected development that came as the congressman continues to face harsh national publicity for comments last week that “nobody dies because they don’t have access to health care,” the Idaho Statesman reports.

HuffPost: “The announcement ends long speculation that Labrador was eyeing the governor’s mansion. For years, Labrador has seemed frustrated by the slow pace of lawmaking. He’s bemoaned the erosion of regular order in Congress and been a key player himself in thwarting major pieces of legislation.”

Seattle Mayor Ends Bid After Sex Abuse Claims

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Seattle Mayor Ed Murray “dropped his re-election bid for a second term after four men claimed he sexually abused them when they were teenagers, claims vehemently denied by Murray as an anti-gay political conspiracy aimed at derailing his campaign,” the AP reports.

“Murray said for weeks after the allegations emerged that he would press on in his campaign for a second term but told reporters that he decided it was best for Seattle to end his campaign and not seek another term.”

Voter Suppression Works

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A new study from Priorities USA finds that strict voter-ID laws led to a significant reduction in voter turnout in 2016, with a disproportionate impact on Democratic-leaning voters.

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Conventional Wisdom May Be Contaminating Polls

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Nate Silver: “When the conventional wisdom tries to outguess the polls, it almost always guesses in the wrong direction. Many experts expected Le Pen to beat her polls. Currency markets implied that she had a much greater chance — perhaps 20 percent — than you’d reasonably infer from the polls. But it was Macron who considerably outperformed his numbers instead.”

“While this was somewhat amusing — the one time the experts decided to take the nationalist candidate’s chances really seriously was the time she lost by 32 points — it should actually worry you, even if you’re a ‘fan’ of polling and data-driven election forecasting. It’s a sign that the polls may be catering to the conventional wisdom, and becoming worse as a result.”

It Was the Culture, Stupid

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A new study from the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic finds that being in fair or poor financial shape actually predicted support for Hillary Clinton among white working-class Americans, rather than support for Donald Trump.

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Trump Sees Warren as Potential 2020 Foe

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“The White House is keeping tabs on Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), viewing her as a potential challenger to President Trump in the 2020 election,” The Hill reports.

“The Republican National Committee (RNC), in coordination with the White House, is assembling a research file on Warren and other possible 2020 opponents and frequently circulates memos critical of her to reporters.”

Senate Republicans Struggle to Find Challengers

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“Senate Republicans landed a top-tier candidate in West Virginia but have struggled to recruit well-known GOP challengers in several states where President Trump romped and Democratic incumbents warily face re-election,” the AP reports.

“In Wisconsin, Michigan and other states, Republicans have passed on challenging Democrats. Trump’s abysmal approval ratings loom large as does the typically rough going for the president’s party in midterm elections. Democratic senators in states Trump carried last year have capitalized on their party’s resistance to the president to post robust early fundraising.”

McArthur’s State Hit Hardest By Health Care Bill

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House Republican cuts to Medicaid in the American Health Care Act would hit New Jersey harder than any other state, thanks to a compromise brokered by Rep. Tom MacArthur (R-NJ) that led to the approval the bill, the Newark Star Ledger reports.

“The bill would leave 500,000 more Garden State residents without health insurance than under current law, and New Jersey no longer would get extra federal funding for expanding Medicaid.”

Indonesian Governor Jailed for Blasphemy

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“Jakarta’s Christian governor was sentenced to two years in jail for blasphemy, a harsher-than-expected ruling that critics fear will embolden hardline Islamist forces to challenge secularism in Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation,” Reuters reports.

“Tuesday’s guilty verdict comes amid concern about the growing influence of Islamist groups, who organized mass rallies during a tumultuous election campaign that ended with Basuki Tjahaja Purnama losing his bid for another term as governor.”

Republicans Ponder Losing Seat in Red Georgia

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“Republican anxiety is mounting about a runoff election in a typically red Georgia House district—a race that will offer an early test of Democratic motivation just weeks after Donald Trump’s health care repeal bill passed the House,” McClatchy reports.

“Republicans in Washington and Georgia acknowledge that a GOP loss in the special election runoff between Karen Handel (R) and Jon Ossoff (D) is a distinct possibility, a development that would harden the narrative that Republicans face a daunting task in maintaining control of Congress in 2018… Interviews with a half-dozen Republican operatives and strategists familiar with the race reveal a recognition that Democrats have enthusiasm on their side.”

FBI Investigating Jane Sanders for Bank Fraud

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Federal investigators are looking into allegations that Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-VT) wife, Jane Sanders, falsified loan documents while she served as the president of Burlington College, The Hill reports.

“The small Vermont liberal arts school closed down in May 2016, after going bankrupt and failing to meet accreditation standards. Sanders has been accused of falsifying the information on the loan documents in order to expand the college grounds.”

South Korea Elects a New Leader

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“Moon Jae-in was poised to be elected as South Korea’s next leader, ending nine years of conservative rule and bringing to power a forceful advocate for closer ties with North Korea,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Joint exit-poll results released by the country’s three major television stations suggested a sweeping victory for Mr. Moon, who has said that South Korea needs to learn to say ‘no’ to the U.S.”

Zuckerberg Begins Nationwide Tour

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Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg “is on a nationwide tour that has people thinking about his political ambitions. But events on the trip are mostly private, which Facebook says encourages the people Zuckerberg is meeting with to be candid without the press watching,” Axios reports.

“The presidential election showed Zuckerberg that he doesn’t understand a lot of Facebook’s users, and this trip is a way to learn about a part of the world he’s been isolated from since at least his Harvard days. He’s already met with Facebook users who helped elect a president he’s at odds with. And while the Zuckerberg-for-president story has been overhyped, his friends think he may run for something one day, so these appearances help him connect to all types of potential voters and give him chance to get better at these sorts of appearances without the blinding glare of constant press attention.”

Kamala Harris Making First Moves for Presidential Bid

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McClatchy: “Now’s the time prospective presidential candidates start taking the subtle but crucial behind-the-scenes steps that get them noticed by the political intelligentsia, and Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) is quietly following the script.”

“She’s making speeches to key national constituencies. She’s due for an appearance at a Washington think-tank panel full of chattering-class presidential favorites that the national media will be reporting and analyzing, probably for days. She’s been fundraising for colleagues and making sure that she is forming relationships with key national reporters.”

“They’re all boxes that prospective presidential candidates routinely check. It’s a chance to ultimately convince insiders they’ve got the gravitas and the fundraising chops to be taken seriously.”

Comey’s Senate Testimony Was Not Accurate

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ProPublica: “Perhaps Comey’s most surprising revelation was that Huma Abedin — Weiner’s wife and a top Clinton deputy — had made ‘a regular practice’ of forwarding ‘hundreds and thousands’ of Clinton messages to her husband, ‘some of which contain classified information.’ Comey testified that Abedin had done this so that the disgraced former congressman could print them out for her boss.”

“The problem: Much of what Comey said about this was inaccurate. Now the FBI is trying to figure out what to do about it.”

“FBI officials have privately acknowledged that Comey misstated what Abedin did and what the FBI investigators found. On Monday, the FBI was said to be preparing to correct the record by sending a letter to Congress later this week. But that plan now appears on hold, with the bureau undecided about what to do.”



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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Follow me on Twitter, Mastodon and Post.News.

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