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Obama Seen as Best for Women

May 31, 2012 at 1:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Kaiser Foundation poll finds people think President Obama would be better for women than Mitt Romney on a host of issues.

“On who looks out for the best interests of women, Obama leads 52-26%. Among women voters, it’s 59-25%.”

“But on who’s best to deal with the deficit, Obama and Romney are essentially tied, with Obama getting the narrow edge, 40-39%, hardly a good sign for an incumbent president. That vulnerability is one reason the Romney campaign has been pushing
the issue. Even on jobs and the economy, President Obama has a 10-point
lead.”

Warren Acknowledges She Told Schools of Heritage

May 31, 2012 at 1:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Elizabeth Warren acknowledged for the first time “that she told Harvard University and the University of Pennsylvania that she was Native American, but she continued to insist that race played no role in her recruitment,” the Boston Globe reports.

Said Warren: “At some point after I was hired by them, I provided that information to the University of Pennsylvania and Harvard. My Native American heritage is part of who I am, I’m proud of it and I have been open about it.”

“Warren’s statement is her first acknowledgment that she identified herself as Native American to the Ivy League schools. While she has said she identified herself as a minority in a legal directory, she has carefully avoided any suggestion during the last month that she took further actions to promote her purported heritage.”

DOMA Ruled Unconstitutional

May 31, 2012 at 1:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A Boston court ruled the Defense of Marriage Act unconstitutional, in the second federal appeals ruling this year to side with gay-marriage proponents,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The court said the 1996 law denying benefits to same-sex spouses improperly targeted a minority group and infringed on states’ prerogatives over family law. Neither ruling this year, however, has recognized a constitutional right to same-sex marriage, instead citing narrower grounds. Both cases raise issues expected to be resolved ultimately by the Supreme Court.”

Quote of the Day

May 31, 2012 at 8:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I’ve been assigned six states. Pennsylvania, my home state. Ohio, Iowa, believe it or not, New Hampshire, Florida… Now they are talking about assigning me either Virginia, Nevada or North Carolina. We started off with Michigan, but we look like we are in pretty good shape in Michigan.”

— Vice President Joe Biden, in an interview with Time magazine, on the 2012 presidential race.

Polls Still Don’t Mean Much

May 31, 2012 at 8:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato: “Over the past eight elections, Gallup — the most recognizable of polling organizations — has only identified the eventual popular vote winner twice in its early June horse race polling.”

Roemer Ends Longshot Presidential Bid

May 31, 2012 at 8:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Louisiana Gov. Buddy Roemer announced that he was ending his independent campaign for president and will instead create an organization focused on getting big money out of politics, Politico reports.

Said Roemer: “As I am no longer a candidate for president, I am free to pledge a good portion of the rest of my life to enacting campaign reform in the halls of Congress and the corridors of the White House. Instead of using my right to the floor of Congress to lobby for corporate clients, I will lobby for the American people who want reform. To be successful, this endeavor must cross party lines. In truth, the two major parties are addicted to special interests and corporate money. I have said it many times: they are joined at the billfold. The two parties have been graveyards of reform too often in the past. They don’t want reform. They only want victory and reelection.”

Tight Race in Three Key Battlegrounds

May 31, 2012 at 8:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New NBC News-Marist College polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney deadlocked in three important battleground states.

Iowa: Romney, 44; Obama, 44

Colorado: Obama, 46; Romney, 45

Nevada: Obama, 48; Romney, 46

These three states are all battlegrounds that Obama carried in 2008, but George W. Bush won in 2004.

Which Presidential Election Does 2012 Most Resemble?

May 30, 2012 at 3:58 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

NPR talks to three political scientists and gets three different answers.

1936 — “The Republicans tried to attack FDR for his New Deal programs, saying they were too expensive and moved the country toward socialism — sound familiar?”

1980 — “Young, unknown president is elected after an unpopular administration… economy in the doldrums, problems with Iran, sense of malaise. Republicans nominate the person who finished second place in the previous nomination… after a divisive nomination struggle.”

2004 — “You have an incumbent president running for re-election in a polarized and closely divided electorate… And the result is again likely to be a close election in which the outcome will come down to a few swing states.”

Hoekstra Says Feds Should Check Birth Certificates

May 30, 2012 at 3:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Pete Hoekstra (R) said he’d like to “create a federal office in Washington that would verify that presidential candidates meet the minimum requirements to hold the office,” the Detroit Free Press reports.

Said Hoekstra: “This is not brain surgery. It should be an FBI person, maybe a CIA person. If you want to run for president, you’ve got to go with the proper documentation and get it certified that you meet the qualifications to be the President of the United States.”

Deleted Tweets from Politicians

May 30, 2012 at 3:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Very cool idea: Politwoops uncovers tweets that politicians shared on Twitter and then quickly deleted.

What is Trump’s Political Calculus?

May 30, 2012 at 2:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Frank Rich: “There is no more naked celebrity in America than Donald Trump. He doesn’t do subtlety. He doesn’t do ‘thought.’ To say he has a political calculus is a wild overstatement. His strategy amounts to no more than junior high school algebra. The equation is: Trump + infantile public statement x infinite repetitions on TV and Twitter = maximum publicity for flailing Trump products and insatiable Trump ego.”

A Different Candidate in Spanish

May 30, 2012 at 2:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Dean Heller’s (R-NV) campaign has set up a Spanish-language website which “is not as robust as the English-language version but does have a summary statement about the candidate,” the Las Vegas Sun reports.

“On both sites, information can be found on Heller’s stance on immigration, including similar sections that address the convoluted immigration system…. Yet, only the English-language site addresses Heller’s stance on border security and illegal immigration.”

Also: “Heller, through his statements and votes in Congress, has consistently supported limiting or eliminating the ability to conduct government business in any language other than English… On his Spanish-language website, however, his statement indicated concern over Nevada students whose first language is not English.”

Pollsters Avoiding New Hampshire?

May 30, 2012 at 1:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Campaigns & Elections: “To poll or not to poll in New Hampshire, that is the question for an increasing number of survey research firms this cycle. Given the state’s new push polling law, is it better for business to take work in the battleground state and risk getting hit with a fine, or is it best to boycott the state and pressure lawmakers to reform the statute?”

“It’s a Hamletesque dilemma for the polling industry, which has been rallying in recent weeks to force a change to New Hampshire’s law. In the past year, several firms have been slapped with hefty fines, and with more enforcement action in the works both sides are digging in.”

Obama Calls to Congratulate Romney

May 30, 2012 at 1:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Obama and Mitt Romney “spoke to each other for the first time since the general election campaign has begun in earnest,” the Washington Post reports.

“According to the White House, Obama called Romney just before noon to congratulate him on securing the Republican presidential nomination after he won the Texas GOP primary on Tuesday. Romney’s victory, coming after his leading challengers withdrew or suspended their campaigns over the past several weeks, gave him at least 88 more delegates, putting him over the 1,144 he needed to clinch the nomination.”

Walker Maintains Lead in Wisconsin Recall Race

May 30, 2012 at 1:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin shows Gov. Scott Walker (R) leading challenger Tom Barrett (D), 52% to 45% among likely voters.

However, Greg Sargent reports a new poll taken by Democratic pollster Celinda Lake finds the race deadlocked at 49% each.

Romney Rebounds Among Women

May 30, 2012 at 1:17 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds a sharp advance among women “has boosted Mitt Romney to his highest favorability rating of the presidential campaign – albeit still an unusually weak one – while President Obama’s personal popularity has slipped.”

“Obama still beats Romney in favorable ratings overall, by an 11-point margin, 52% vs. 41%. But that’s down from 21 points last month… All Romney’s gains have come among women — up by 13 percentage points in personal popularity from last month, while Obama’s lost 7 points among women. (Views among men have been more stable.) Obama’s rating among women, 51% favorable, still beats Romney’s 40% — but again that margin is far smaller than what it was six weeks ago.”

New Indie Voter Group Launches

May 30, 2012 at 1:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Veteran political ad-maker Bill Hillsman — the man behind “hilarious and highly effective ads” for Paul Wellstone, Jesse Ventura, Ross Perot and others — has launched Independent Voters of America, Tech President reports.

Said Hillsman: “We are building the largest online community of self-identified independent voters, with the goals of bringing fresh voices and more choices into our politics, acting as a counterweight to the two major political parties, and to reduce gridlock, force progress and bring a new accountability to Washington.”

Unlike the failed Americans Elect, the new project seeks “to give self-identified independent voters a gathering place” and then “see where people want to take this.”

Mass Exodus of State Legislators

May 30, 2012 at 11:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Governing: “Like a recurring astronomical event, this year’s election cycle features a once-a-decade confluence of term limits and redistricting — a confluence that is expected to produce unusually high levels of turnover among state lawmakers.”

“The last time an election occurred in the wake of redistricting was 2002. That year, just under 24 percent of legislative seats changed hands in the November election… That was a higher rate than in any election cycle between 1998 and 2008, when the turnover ranged between 14.4 percent and 21.5 percent… But the scale of what could happen in 2012 may be unprecedented. That’s because this fall’s elections will immediately follow another high-turnover election cycle — the 2010 cycle, in which Republicans made widespread gains in state legislatures and produced a turnover rate of slightly less than 24 percent.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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