Just published: Bannon: Always the Rebel by Keith Koffler.
No Real Deadline for Tax Reform
Playbook: “There really is no deadline to get tax reform done. The end-of-the-year proclamations are silly, according to most of the people we talk to. This could — and many think it should — take time. It’s tough (just ask the WSJ’s Rich Rubin). It’s complicated. Congress is rewriting the entire tax code — and that affects everyone in the United States. Plenty of lawmakers tell us it should take something like six months.”
“At the end of the day, all the senior aides and lawmakers we speak to say that this remains, at best, a 60-40 proposition. Yeah, Republicans feel pretty good about where things are. But that’s mostly out of fear of losing their majorities. Many things can stop this process dead in its tracks.”
Key takeaway: “Until Paul Ryan or Mitch McConnell pull the plug, this thing is alive and kicking.”
Tillerson’s Power Play
“A leaked State Department document is alarming diplomats and others who say it shows the accumulation of power among a small and unaccountable group of senior aides to Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. The chart, obtained by Politico, illustrates the growing influence of the State Department’s Policy Planning Staff, which traditionally has served as an in-house think tank but which Tillerson heavily relies upon for day-to-day decision making.”
“Critics already complain that the office — led by Brian Hook, a powerful Tillerson aide not subject to Senate confirmation — accepts too little input from career diplomats, and the chart, which lays out a method to craft foreign policy, shows no explicit role for them. The chart appears to show a top-down approach in which ideas emanate from the secretary’s inner circle rather than bubbling up from diverse sources, including Foreign Service officers in the field.”
Trump Adviser Flipped Buildings to Mysterious Buyers
McClatchy: “Donald Trump’s long time business lawyer Michael Cohen may be best known for his aggressive campaign television defenses of the real estate mogul, his role in an abortive effort to build a Trump Tower in Moscow and allegations that he attended a meeting last summer with Russians in Europe.”
“But while serving as a top executive at the Trump Organization for a decade, Cohen himself was a sometime New York real estate wheeler dealer whose companies appear to have netted as much as $20 million in profit by flipping properties to mysterious buyers.”
Lindsey Graham Cozies Up to Trump
New York Times: “Three times in a single day last week, Sen. Lindsey Graham’s (R-SC) cellphone rang. The first time, President Trump called about the health care fight in Congress. The second time, the president thanked the senator for defending his honor on television. Then Mr. Trump rang seeking more intelligence on health care.”
“Mr. Graham — Republican of South Carolina and a one-time target of the president’s barbs on Twitter — has transformed himself into the Senate’s Trump whisperer, shrugging off the White House chaos, personal insults and deep ideological differences in exchange for Mr. Trump’s ear.”
McConnell Allies Declare War on Steve Bannon
“Allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell declared open warfare on Wednesday against Stephen Bannon, the former White House chief strategist and leader of an insurrection aimed at defeating mainstream GOP candidates in next year’s midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.
“More than a year ahead of the 2018 congressional contests, a super PAC aligned with McConnell (R-KY) revealed plans to attack Bannon personally as it works to protect incumbents facing uphill primary fights. The effort reflects the growing concern of Republican lawmakers over the rise of anti-establishment forces and comes amid escalating frustration over President Trump’s conduct, which has prompted a handful of lawmakers to publicly criticize the president.”
Trump Solidifies His Grip on the Republican Party
New York Times: “Despite the fervor of President Trump’s Republican opponents, the president’s brand of hard-edge nationalism — with its gut-level cultural appeals and hard lines on trade and immigration — is taking root within his adopted party, and those uneasy with grievance politics are either giving in or giving up the fight.”
“In some cases, the retirement of an anti-Trump Republican could actually improve the Republican Party’s chance of retaining a seat… But such short-term advantages mask a larger, even existential threat to traditional Republicans. The Grand Old Party risks a longer-term transformation into the Party of Trump.”
You Don’t Lose Power By Losing Your Base
David Frum: “A famous line of Ernest Hemingway’s describes how a rich man goes broke: ‘Two ways … Gradually and then suddenly.’ That’s how defeat comes upon a president as well. The live question for Trumpists in 2018 will be whether they can hold onto both chambers of Congress and thereby continue to stifle investigations into presidential wrongdoing. The geographic map is in the GOP’s favor in 2018, but the demographic map increasingly is not. The voters who hear of and are swayed by comments like Flake’s and Corkers’s—more educated, more affluent—are precisely those most likely to show up in an off-year election. Trump and the GOP will not lose all of them. They cannot afford to lose very many of them.”
“You don’t lose power by losing your base. Herbert Hoover held 39.7 percent of the vote in 1932, a year when Americans were literally going hungry. You lose power by losing the less intensely committed, just enough of them to tip the balance against you. Flake, Corker, and the others are working on those less intensely committed, at the 52 percent of Republicans who as late as August 2016 still wished their party had nominated someone else.”
Democrats Open Wide Lead In Generic Ballot
A new Fox News poll finds Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 15 points, 50% to 35%.
The poll also found that Trump’s approval rating is at 38%, a new low.
Bush Apologizes After Actress Accused Him of Groping
Former President George H.W. Bush issued an apology after an actress accused him of sexually assaulting her during a photo op four years ago, The Hill reports.
Biden Sounds Like Someone Who Wants to Run
Former Vice President Biden tells InStyle what he would offer if he were to run for president in 2020:
“I think this moment in American history sort of fits into my wheelhouse and the strengths I have. I am, I think most people would say, fairly knowledgeable about American foreign policy. I’m pretty good at diplomacy internationally and bringing people together, cutting through and settling things. And I think what people are looking for most, and I hope I have it, is authenticity. I have great relationships with my Republican colleagues. They trust me, and I trust them. We can work things through.
“And also,” he continues, “I think the defining issue of our time is sustaining the middle class. You know, when I got to Washington they called me Middle Class Joe, and it wasn’t meant as a compliment. But the middle class is the reason for our social and political stability.”
He exhales. “Anyway, I’m familiar with the issues, and I think I could bring some talent there. So it’s not that I don’t think I’m equipped to do the job. We’ll just see.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Politics is not for sissies.”
— Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R), in a KNXV interview, on Sen. Jeff Flake’s (R-AZ) decision not to run again.
Low Support for Trump’s Tax Plan
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that fewer than a third of Americans support President Trump’s tax-cut plan.
“As the 2018 midterm congressional election campaigns grow nearer, the poll found that more than two-thirds of registered voters said reducing the U.S. federal budget deficit is more important than cutting taxes for the wealthy or for corporations.”
Murphy Looks Headed for Landslide in New Jersey
A new Quinnipiac poll in New Jersey finds Phil Murphy (D) with a huge lead over Kim Guadagno (R) in the race for governor, 57% to 37%.
Said pollster Peter Brown: “Politics is a team game. Guadagno’s GOP teammates — President Trump, with a 33% job approval rating, and Gov. Chris Christie, with his 15% approval rating — are clearly pulling her down.”
O’Reilly May End Up at Sinclair Broadcasting
“Bill O’Reilly, the former Fox News anchor, has been negotiating for a position with the Sinclair Broadcast Group, the nation’s largest television-station owner,” NBC News reports.
“Sinclair, known for its conservative commentary, is continuing with the talks despite the sexual harassment cases that cost O’Reilly his job at Fox earlier this year… Sinclair currently owns or operates 173 U.S. television stations.”
House GOP Scrambles for Fix Before Budget Vote
“House Republican leaders are in a mad dash to resolve a dispute between GOP tax writers and Republicans from high-tax states that has the potential to make Thursday’s budget vote a real nail-biter,” Politico reports.
“A handful of New York Republicans, along with a New Jersey lawmaker, are threatening to vote against the budget unless GOP leaders retreat from plans to eliminate a key federal deduction that people can take for the state and local taxes they pay.”
Straus Upends Texas Politics with Decision
Texas House Speaker Joe Straus (R) announced “he will not run for re-election in 2018, a decision that has the potential to upend the political balance of power in the state,” the Texas Tribune reports.
“Straus, who has lately been the most powerful moderate Republican in the Texas Capitol, said he will serve until the end of his term.”
“His decision will immediately set in motion a scrum for control of the House, pitting arch-conservative members who have opposed him against more centrist Republicans who have backed Straus… Tea Party leaders and their allies have blamed Straus for killing controversial measures backed by the hard right, most notably a bill that would have regulated which bathrooms transgender Texans could use.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I haven’t decided to run, but I’ve decided I’m not going to decide not to run. We’ll see what happens.”
— Former Vice President Joe Biden, in an interview with Vanity Fair, on running for president in 2020.