Alan Abramowitz takes issue with Nate Silver’s new forecasting model that shows the presidential race is essentially a toss up.

“First, it isn’t really a forecasting model because the growth rate of the economy during the year of the election won’t be known until long after the election is over. In addition, the measure of the opposition candidate’s extremism is highly subjective… More importantly, Silver’s model may underestimate Barack Obama’s chances of winning a second term in the White House because it does not take into account the advantage enjoyed by first-term incumbents. And that advantage, as we have seen, is quite substantial.”

Brendan Nyhan and Jacob Montgomery have similar concerns: “Ultimately, almost every analyst agrees at this point that it is still too soon to say with much confidence whether President Obama will win in November. In particular, there is still too much uncertainty about the state of the economy next year. However, both theory and data suggest that the conservatism of his opponent is likely to matter less than Silver’s model suggests.”

A Smart Politics review of the last five presidential debates finds Mitt Romney averaging approximately four minutes more speaking time per debate (14 minutes, 40 seconds) than his closest rival for the cameras, Rick Perry (10 min. 46 sec.), and averaging greater than six minutes more speaking time per debate compared to each of the remaining six members of the GOP field.

Politico sums up the GOP presidential race: “Romney rivals continue to implode.”

First Read: “Twelve years ago, would George W. Bush — who, remember, wasn’t that good of a debater early in the 1999-2000 campaign — have still cruised through the GOP primary season in today’s current system where debates play such an important role? The fact of the matter is that the televised debates have turned into Iowa, becoming the first true test for the candidates and the first bar to clear. And that development hasn’t helped Perry one bit. Four years ago, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were able to campaign for about three months in Iowa and New Hampshire before their first primary debate. But get this: Perry has been a candidate for less than THREE months (Aug. 13 to now), and last night was his SIXTH debate.”

A new Gallup survey
finds President Obama back to even with a generic Republican candidate,
leading 43% to 42%, a marked improvement over polls from September and
October, when Obama trailed 38% to 46%.

“The evenness of independents’
preferences marks a significant change from September and October, when
independents favored the Republican candidate by a significant margin.
The current pattern more closely resembles where independents were
earlier this year, when Obama and the Republican were evenly
matched… The changes in this survey matchup between Obama and a
generic Republican candidate no doubt foreshadow the potential political
volatility to come over the next 12 months.”

Rick Perry’s painful debate stumble last night was so serious he’ll appear on every morning news show in an attempt to rescue his flailing campaign.

Howard Kurtz:
“After a series of stumbling performances, the governor of Texas
attempted to tick off the three federal agencies he would abolish, and
was stumped at two. He paused, regrouped, and still couldn’t come up
with the missing one (the Energy Department, which is hardly obscure).
It was the only Perry moment anyone will remember, and a metaphor for
his erratic campaign.”

Brad Phillips: “With his bumbling answer, Mr. Perry reinforced the now almost irreversible perception that he is not ready for prime time. That indelible moment will linger, and will likely doom his campaign.”

Jonathan Chait: “And that’s it for Rick Perry. His latest debate performance was so
world-historically awful that it truly seems beyond all repair.”

[Read more…]

Three new Quinnipiac polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, “the three states that for the past half-century have predicted the presidential winner… Since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without carrying at least two of these three states.”

Romney leads Obama in Florida, 45% to 42%. But Obama leads Romney in Ohio, 45% to 42%, and in Pennsylvania, 44% to 43%.

The president also has solid leads over the other top GOP contenders, although half the voters in each state say he does not deserve a second term.

If you missed last night’s Republican presidential debate, the Daily Beast has a good compilation of the best moments.

Mitt Romney prevailed in yet another GOP debate. He was the home team candidate on his home turf: the economy and jobs. He’s comfortable on the stage and is at least a full notch above the other candidates.

Herman Cain easily batted down an early question about the sexual harassment allegations made against him. It helped that the audience booed the questioner and Romney took a pass on challenging him. Unless the allegations get worse, it’s unlikely that any of his rivals will go near the issue.

Cain also scored well with his message of tax simplification. He’s getting better at explaining his 9-9-9 plan — however flawed it may be — and the message of a simple tax code resonates well.

Newt Gingrich was also very solid. He’s running against the media and his combativeness with the moderators was very appealing to Republican voters. If Romney doesn’t begin to attract more support within his party, Gingrich could be a surprise winner in one or more of the early primary states. He’s definitely moved into the top tier of this relatively weak field.

Rick Perry did nothing more than recite slogans — which he couldn’t even memorize. His inability to remember his own talking points made it was his worst debate yet. He’s finished as a viable candidate. He’ll live on forever in videos of debate gaffes.

Ron Paul was the most ideologically consistent candidate but his ideas are way out of the mainstream even within today’s Republican party. Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman simply take time away from the other candidates.

A new Rasmussen survey in Florida finds Herman Cain leading the Republican field with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 24% and Newt Gingrich at 19%.

Ron Paul told Fox News that President Obama use of executive orders “brings the modern presidency dangerously close to an elective dictatorship.”

Said Paul: “It is flaunting the Constitution and the whole principle of how we’re supposed to operate. The idea they can just do this and take over the legislative function and brag about it — and Congress does nothing and the courts do nothing about it, it’s very, very bad.”

He added: “He’s dictatorial, is what he is.”

[Read more…]

A new Clemson Palmetto Poll in South Carolina finds Mitt Romney edging Herman Cain in the GOP presidential race among those who have decided on a candidate, 22% to 20%, with Newt Gingrich at 10% and Rick Perry at 9%.

All other candidates are at 3% or less.

Big caveat: 68% of those polled had not yet decided on a
candidate and a similar number said they were most likely to change
their minds between now and January when they do have a choice.

A new Univision poll of Latino voters in 21 states with the largest Latino populations finds President Obama with a strong advantage among that growing demographic group.

In general election match ups against the three top Republican contenders, Obama earns between 65% and 68% of the vote — roughly the same percentage of the Hispanic vote he won in 2008.

Key finding: “Latinos are not as torn about the president as the rest of the country: 66% of Latinos approve of the job Obama has done, while only 29% disapprove.”

Piers Morgan made a big mistake trying to explain “the reality of politics” to Newt Gingrich, who wasn’t pleased to hear he was jockeying to be the anti-Mitt Romney candidate in the GOP presidential field.

Said Gingrich: “Now, see, this is what I find fascinating, okay. I’ve been involved with politics since 1958. I helped grow the modern Republican Party of Georgia. I helped create a national majority, and you’re explaining to me the reality of politics.”

He added: “The reality of politics is if you have a good enough leader who is positive enough, they can ignore the other candidates, they can create a positive majority around a positive set of solutions, and let the other candidate worry about me.”