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Can Democrats Rebuild Their Blue Wall?

February 14, 2019 at 7:31 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Amy Walter: “There’s something of a consensus forming that the ‘easiest’ or least risky electoral path for the Democratic nominee in 2020 is to reconstruct the so-called Blue Wall in the industrial midwest. If the Democratic nominee wins every state Hillary Clinton carried in 2016, plus Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, that Democrat would win 278 electoral votes — eight more than the 270 needed to win.”

“Just as important, it means that Democrats wouldn’t need to sweat Ohio or Florida. They can lose those big, electoral-vote-rich states, and still have enough to win the White House.”

Use the new interactive Electoral Vote Map to test your own assumptions.

Trump Told Courts Will Block Emergency Order

February 14, 2019 at 7:01 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Justice Department has warned the White House a national emergency declaration is nearly certain to be blocked by the courts on, at least, a temporary basis, preventing the immediate implementation of the president’s plan to circumvent Congress and build the wall using his executives powers,” ABC News reports.

Washington Post: “House Democrats are gearing up to pass a joint resolution disapproving President Trump’s emergency declaration to build his U.S.-Mexico border wall, a move that will force Senate Republicans to vote on a contentious issue that divides their party.”

For members: Pelosi’s Next Move

Trumps Give Up on New Hotels

February 14, 2019 at 6:29 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In the early months of the Trump administration, with the president no longer running his family business, his eldest sons embarked on a plan to roll out two new hotel lines in dozens of American cities,” the New York Times reports.

“Now, in a striking reversal, the Trump Organization is no longer pursuing the signature initiative… Plans for the two hotel chains, Scion and American Idea, are to be shelved indefinitely, most likely for the remainder of the presidency.”


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Democrats Set Qualifications for Presidential Debates

February 14, 2019 at 6:09 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“As many as 20 Democratic presidential candidates will be invited to the party’s first sanctioned debates this summer if they can meet new polling or grass-roots fundraising thresholds to qualify,” the Washington Post reports.

“Candidates can qualify either by attracting campaign donations from at least 65,000 people, including at least 200 people from at least 20 states, or by registering at least 1 percent in three state or national polls from a list of surveys approved by the party.”

O’Rourke Plans Visit to Wisconsin

February 14, 2019 at 6:02 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Beto O’Rourke “is coming to the University of Wisconsin-Madison campus Friday for a meet and greet with students and faculty, a closely guarded event that will be the former Texas congressman’s first visit to a key state in the battleground, industrial Midwest,” the AP reports.

Trump Has Gained Weight Since Last Year

February 14, 2019 at 5:13 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump weighed in at 243 pounds during his physical last week, an increase of four pounds from last year,” USA Today reports.

At Trump’s reported height of 6 feet 3 inches, his weight would give him a body mass index of 30.4, just over the line of obesity.

“The administration released the report in the midst of a busy news cycle, just minutes after officials announced that Trump would declare a ‘national emergency’ at the border in a bid to obtain funding for a border wall.”

Pelosi’s Next Move After Trump Declares an Emergency

February 14, 2019 at 4:54 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

If President Trump declares a national emergency in an attempt to divert military funds to build his border wall, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has recourse against such a move — and if she exercises it, she will force Senate Republicans to vote on where they stand.

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McConnell Says Trump Will Declare Emergency on Border

February 14, 2019 at 3:13 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said President Trump is ready to sign compromise spending legislation that would avert another government shutdown and will declare a national emergency to get additional funds for a border wall, Bloomberg reports.

Washington Post: “McConnell also said he’d told the president he would support the emergency declaration, which would allow the president to circumvent Congress and use the military to build his wall. McConnell has voiced opposition for weeks to the idea of Trump declaring a national emergency.”

New York Times: “That raised the prospect of a constitutional clash with lawmakers over who controls the federal purse.”

White House Not Sure Trump Will Sign Funding Bill

February 14, 2019 at 3:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump’s aides now say they are less certain he will sign a bipartisan spending compromise that doesn’t include the money he demanded for a border wall — a major shift from earlier this week when officials indicated privately that he would,” CNN reports.

“As more details about the package have emerged, conservative figures in Trump’s orbit have voiced new displeasure at the bill. That includes Fox host Laura Ingraham, who tweeted earlier Thursday that Trump should not sign it. The White House had attempted earlier this week to bolster support among Trump’s media allies.”

Arizona Senate Race Looks Like a Toss Up

February 14, 2019 at 1:58 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) leading new challenger Mark Kelly (D) by just two points, 46% to 44%.

That edge is well within the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error.

Barr Confirmed as Attorney General

February 14, 2019 at 1:15 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The U.S. Senate voted to confirm William Barr as attorney general, “putting him in command of the Justice Department at one of the most politically charged moments in its history,” the Washington Post reports.

“Once Barr is sworn in, he will be thrust into supervising the special counsel probe into whether President Trump’s campaign worked with Russia to swing the 2016 election — and will be saddled with the political baggage that comes with it.”

“Barr, who has said he considers Mueller a friend, will oversee the probe at a particularly sensitive time, as it is widely presumed that Mueller is nearing the end of his work and lawmakers and the public are growing eager to learn his conclusions.”

Quote of the Day

February 14, 2019 at 1:10 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Let’s all pray that the president will have wisdom to sign the bill so government doesn’t shut down.”

— Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), offering his own prayer after the official prayer to open Senate business.

The Manafort Case Proves Collusion

February 14, 2019 at 12:29 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “Here we have, in this case alone, every single element one would need to establish collusion. There was a meeting between Trump’s campaign manager and a Russian operative; the discussion of something Russia would gain from a Trump victory (a favorable Ukraine settlement); the exchange of information that would assist Russian campaign intervention (polling data that would allow Russia to target its social-media attacks). Also, they left the meeting place via separate entrances. This isn’t merely suspicious. It’s a scene from The Americans.”

“And perhaps most curious of all, you have the interest of the president. If Manafort was just running a side hustle behind Trump’s back, Trump would have little reason to care about him getting caught. Prosecutors have already charged that Manafort maintained secret contacts with the White House as recently as 2018.”

“The revelations about Manafort have dribbled out slowly enough that it’s easy to lose track of how far along they have come.”

Trump Gripes He Was Outplayed by Democrats

February 14, 2019 at 12:24 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump appears to be moving — unhappily — closer to signing a bipartisan agreement that provides only a fraction of the money he demanded for a border wall,” CNN reports.

“But in conversations with allies over the past days, he has griped that Republican negotiators were outplayed by their Democratic counterparts, securing a border funding number far smaller than Trump has spent the last two months demanding.”

“In public, Trump has remained gracious about the GOP effort… But privately, Trump has cast the GOP’s dealmaking efforts as inadequate and wondered why he, an experienced dealmaker, wasn’t consulted at more regular intervals as the two sides haggled over an agreement.”

Biden Almost Certain to Run for President

February 14, 2019 at 12:15 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sources tell The Hill that former Vice President Joe Biden is almost certain to enter the 2020 presidential race.

“It’s pretty clear he’s jumping in,” said one source with direct knowledge, adding that Biden is “95 percent there.”

“In recent days, Biden has sought to build support from grassroots activists and is specifically asking donors for their help in the lead up to an announcement.”

Amazon Pulls Out of Planned New York City Campus

February 14, 2019 at 11:57 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Amazon said on Thursday that it was canceling plans to build a corporate campus in New York City. The company had planned to build a sprawling complex in Long Island City, Queens, in exchange for nearly $3 billion in state and city incentives,” the New York Times reports.

“But the deal had run into fierce opposition from local lawmakers who criticized providing subsidies to one of the world’s most valuable companies. Amazon said the deal would have created more than 25,000 jobs.”

Justice Officials Discussed Pushing Trump Out of Office

February 14, 2019 at 10:38 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Andrew McCabe, the former deputy F.B.I. director, said in an interview aired on Thursday that top Justice Department officials were so alarmed by President Trump’s decision in May 2017 to fire James Comey, the bureau’s director, that they discussed whether to recruit cabinet members to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Mr. Trump from office,” the New York Times reports.

“The concerns about the president’s actions also prompted Mr. McCabe to order the bureau’s team investigating Russia’s election interference to expand their scope to also investigate whether Mr. Trump had obstructed justice by firing Mr. Comey. They also were to examine if he had been working on behalf of Russia against American interests.”

After the interview aired, Trump ripped McCabe on Twitter, calling him “a disgrace to the FBI and a disgrace to our Country.”

Oklahoma May Soon Allow Carrying Guns Without Permit

February 14, 2019 at 10:12 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A bill vetoed last year by Oklahoma’s Republican former governor that would allow adult residents to carry a gun without any training or a background check has easily passed a vote in the state House on its way to the desk of the new governor, who is expected to sign it into law,” the AP reports.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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