Three new Quinnipiac polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney running neck and neck in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, “the three states that for the past half-century have predicted the presidential winner… Since 1960, no candidate has won the presidency without carrying at least two of these three states.”

Romney leads Obama in Florida, 45% to 42%. But Obama leads Romney in Ohio, 45% to 42%, and in Pennsylvania, 44% to 43%.

The president also has solid leads over the other top GOP contenders, although half the voters in each state say he does not deserve a second term.

If you missed last night’s Republican presidential debate, the Daily Beast has a good compilation of the best moments.

Mitt Romney prevailed in yet another GOP debate. He was the home team candidate on his home turf: the economy and jobs. He’s comfortable on the stage and is at least a full notch above the other candidates.

Herman Cain easily batted down an early question about the sexual harassment allegations made against him. It helped that the audience booed the questioner and Romney took a pass on challenging him. Unless the allegations get worse, it’s unlikely that any of his rivals will go near the issue.

Cain also scored well with his message of tax simplification. He’s getting better at explaining his 9-9-9 plan — however flawed it may be — and the message of a simple tax code resonates well.

Newt Gingrich was also very solid. He’s running against the media and his combativeness with the moderators was very appealing to Republican voters. If Romney doesn’t begin to attract more support within his party, Gingrich could be a surprise winner in one or more of the early primary states. He’s definitely moved into the top tier of this relatively weak field.

Rick Perry did nothing more than recite slogans — which he couldn’t even memorize. His inability to remember his own talking points made it was his worst debate yet. He’s finished as a viable candidate. He’ll live on forever in videos of debate gaffes.

Ron Paul was the most ideologically consistent candidate but his ideas are way out of the mainstream even within today’s Republican party. Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman simply take time away from the other candidates.

A new Rasmussen survey in Florida finds Herman Cain leading the Republican field with 30%, followed by Mitt Romney at 24% and Newt Gingrich at 19%.

Ron Paul told Fox News that President Obama use of executive orders “brings the modern presidency dangerously close to an elective dictatorship.”

Said Paul: “It is flaunting the Constitution and the whole principle of how we’re supposed to operate. The idea they can just do this and take over the legislative function and brag about it — and Congress does nothing and the courts do nothing about it, it’s very, very bad.”

He added: “He’s dictatorial, is what he is.”

[Read more…]

A new Clemson Palmetto Poll in South Carolina finds Mitt Romney edging Herman Cain in the GOP presidential race among those who have decided on a candidate, 22% to 20%, with Newt Gingrich at 10% and Rick Perry at 9%.

All other candidates are at 3% or less.

Big caveat: 68% of those polled had not yet decided on a
candidate and a similar number said they were most likely to change
their minds between now and January when they do have a choice.

A new Univision poll of Latino voters in 21 states with the largest Latino populations finds President Obama with a strong advantage among that growing demographic group.

In general election match ups against the three top Republican contenders, Obama earns between 65% and 68% of the vote — roughly the same percentage of the Hispanic vote he won in 2008.

Key finding: “Latinos are not as torn about the president as the rest of the country: 66% of Latinos approve of the job Obama has done, while only 29% disapprove.”

Piers Morgan made a big mistake trying to explain “the reality of politics” to Newt Gingrich, who wasn’t pleased to hear he was jockeying to be the anti-Mitt Romney candidate in the GOP presidential field.

Said Gingrich: “Now, see, this is what I find fascinating, okay. I’ve been involved with politics since 1958. I helped grow the modern Republican Party of Georgia. I helped create a national majority, and you’re explaining to me the reality of politics.”

He added: “The reality of politics is if you have a good enough leader who is positive enough, they can ignore the other candidates, they can create a positive majority around a positive set of solutions, and let the other candidate worry about me.”

Mary Kaye Huntsman, Anita Perry and Callista Gingrich “have bonded amid the heated GOP presidential campaign and animosity that’s part and parcel of high-stakes political battles” and have become friends, ABC News reports.

“The women, they agree, are too busy focusing on motherhood and each other’s well-being to let their husbands’ jousting get in the way… While they see each other at debates and other major political events, [they] keep in contact with each other via email, sending each other quick missives several times a week.”

First Read: “The debate, of course, comes just a day after Cain’s press conference in Arizona, where he defiantly denied the sexual-harassment charges against him… As far as how these allegations might play out in tonight’s debate, consider that all the candidates who aren’t Mitt Romney will probably treat Cain with kid gloves. Why? If Cain’s campaign collapses, they will all want his supporters. And if you go too hard, you risk alienating them. Bottom line: Attacking Cain tonight on this issue, if you are another GOP candidate, comes with more risk than reward.”

David Graham: “They could attack him directly; even the usually detached Romney edged that way Tuesday, saying the allegations against Cain were serious. But that might be unnecessary and counterproductive. Focusing on Cain’s circus rather than, say, high unemployment is bad for the Republican brand, so they may instead let him bleed slowly as they avert their eyes.”

The Election Administrator’s prayer was apparently not answered in Virginia.

The Washington Post reports Democrats’ hopes of maintaining their party’s hold on the state Senate are “very much in doubt” and hinging on a 86 vote lead in a single Senate district. A recount is likely.

Karen Kraushaar, who settled a sexual harassment complaint against Herman Cain in 1999, “complained three years later at her next job about unfair treatment, saying she should be allowed to work from home after a serious car accident and accusing a manager of circulating a sexually charged email,” the AP reports.

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio finds President Obama leading all of his Republican opponents by margins ranging from 9 to 17 points.

Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50% to 41%, tops Herman Cain, 50% to 39%, beats Newt Gingrich, 51% to 38% and crushes Rick Perry, 53% to 36%.

The same poll got the final result of the collective bargaining referendum correct to within one point.

John Avlon: “In past recessions, populist anger was directed at either big business or big government. Now voter anger is directed at both, and the two parties are having a hard time adjusting their left/right playbooks to account for this shift. The anti-incumbent narrative likewise failed last night, as Kentucky Democrat Beshear was easily reelected. Instead, there seem to be a consistent impulse to reject ideological overreach, a reassuring sign of rational ticket-splitting even in this overheated political environment. Neither party should feel false confidence heading into 2012.”

First Read: “Voters punished elected officials for going too far. They might not be
happy with public-sector unions, but they don’t support taking away
their collective-bargaining rights (especially for first-responders).
They might be against abortion in Mississippi, but don’t want to
potentially outlaw things like birth control. They might be troubled by
illegal immigration, but they don’t want their elected officials to look
like they are targeting on specific community. They might believe
government should do something about health care, but they don’t want to
be forced to buy insurance. And they might be concerned about the idea
of voter fraud, but they don’t want to lose rights they had. Politicians
may be pushing absolutes, but voters are sending a different message.”