Marc Ambinder suggests Mitt Romney will win New Hampshire while Iowa will go to the strongest anti-Romney candidate, perhaps Newt Gingrich.

“So everything turns to South Carolina. If the person who wins Iowa…say…Newt…wins South Carolina, then the party’s conservative forces will seek to winnow the field quickly. There’s no question that everyone knows Newt’s vulnerabilities. But conservatives remember more indelibly, I think, the old Newt — the guy who invented the language that they use to run against Democrats…the guy who took on the Clintons in the 90s.. and this impression engenders considerable loyalty.”

“Suddenly, he gets money. Suddenly, Florida becomes a race again. And the conservative movement gets to see whether they can beat the establishment forces…losing the race in 2008 but vowing to fight another year. With the right conservative candidate, the Mitt Romney coronation is not inevitable. Still likely? Yes. Inevitable? No.”

A new EPIC/MRA poll in Michigan shows Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) leading likely challenger Pete Hoekstra (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 42%.

Meanwhile, in a head-to-head presidential matchup in the state, Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five points, 46% to 41%.

Just published: Diplomacy and Diamonds: My Wars from the Ballroom to the Battlefield by Joanne King Herring.

Washington Post: “She is perhaps best known as the financial backer of Congressman Charlie Wilson and his personal crusade on behalf of the mujahideen against the occupying Soviet forces in Afghanistan in the 1980s. And that’s one of her less flamboyant accomplishments.”

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Newt Gingrich leading the Republican presidential field nationally with 24%, followed by Mitt Romney at 22%, Herman Cain at 12% and Rick Perry at 10%.

Mitt Romney, “who has been cautiously calibrating expectations about his chances in a state full of social conservatives, is now playing to win the Iowa caucuses,” the New York Times reports.

“Television commercials are on the way, volunteers are arriving and a stealth operation is ready to burst into view in the weeks leading up to the caucuses, the first Republican nominating contest, on Jan. 3.”

“The escalation of his effort in Iowa, along with a more aggressive schedule in New Hampshire and an expanding presence in South Carolina, is the strongest indication yet that Mr. Romney is shifting from a defensive, make-no-mistakes crouch to an assertive offensive strategy. If he can take command in the three early-voting states, he could make the nominating battle a swift one.”

The Ron Paul “bad lip reading” video may be the best one yet in the series.

Others: Mitt Romney, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Michele Bachmann.

[Read more…]

Missouri Lt. Gov. Peter Kinder (R) will not run for governor in 2012, Politico reports.

“The seismic decision comes after months of damaging headlines over past trips to a strip club, taxpayer funded hotel stays and jarring outbursts on his Twitter account.”

“Kinder was making calls to donors and supporters as recent as this week informing them that he would still pursue his dream of the governorship, but sources say he changed his mind in the last 36 hours. ”

A new Magellan Strategies poll in New Hampshire finds Mitt Romney barely edging Newt Gingrich among GOP presidential primary voters, 29% to 27%.

They are followed by Ron Paul at 16%, Herman Cain at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 8%, Michele Bachmann at 2%, Rick Perry at 2% and Rick Santorum at 1%.

“I haven’t had a gaffe or something that I’ve done that has caused me to fall in the polls.”

— Rep. Michele Bachmann, in an interview on Fox News.