“Absent a strike of lightning, I do not believe we’re going to pick up the House tonight.”
— Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), quoted by Politico, on the Democratic campaign efforts.
“Absent a strike of lightning, I do not believe we’re going to pick up the House tonight.”
— Rep. Steve Israel (D-NY), quoted by Politico, on the Democratic campaign efforts.
New York Times: “If Greg Orman wins in Kansas, there will be three officially independent senators, an unprecedented moment, except for one thing: Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont is not a centrist but a liberal to the left of most Democrats. Mr. Orman could make a powerful ally for the other independent, Angus King of Maine, who could try to build a voting block in the center that would influence both parties. Both Mr. Orman and Mr. King, who currently caucuses with Democrats, have hinted that they are open to aligning with whichever party is in the majority.”
Sam Wang: “From 2004 to 2012, only thirteen Senate races have had margins of less than three percentage points in the week before the election. Of these, four were won by the trailing candidate. One more, the Florida 2004 race, was tied in the polls, and was eventually won by the Republican, Mel Martinez, by 2 percentage points. Scoring that one as half correct, the overall rate of wins by a front-runner is 65%, a bit better than chance.”
“In light of that, the probability that all six close Senate races (AK, CO, IA, KS, NH, and NC) will be won by the candidate in the lead is only 7%. A wrong call is almost inevitable.”
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Marc Ambinder says it’s a myth “that Democrats do poorly in midterm elections generally. In 1998, they did not. In 2006, they did not. In 2002 and 2010, Republicans gained seats in both chambers. Setting aside the structural engineering of politics — the gerrymandering of districts, for example — there are some things the Democrats did, and did not do, that hurt them.”
“The first is that they broke their promise on immigration. To be sure, Republicans win the obstructionist trophy on immigration reform. But Obama all but promised to act in their stead. He did not… Had Obama made some big gesture accompanied by strong executive action to pull out of the shadows millions of Latinos, his party might well have rewarded him. Not just Hispanic voters, but other Democratic voters who supported his position. If you don’t give someone a concrete reason to vote, something they can hang their minds around, then they’ve got to be persuaded by an appeal to their fears.”
“Democrats know that President Obama remains in charge. They know that the GOP can’t do anything awful for the next two years. Democrats tend not be motivated by judges and cultural issues; their base was not set up that way, the Republicans were. Democrats are also confident that they’ll keep the presidency in 2016, and if they pay attention to politics, they know that 2016 is cyclically shaping up to be a better year for them. So — really — why vote? Or, put another way, why go out of your way to vote?”
New York Times: “Republicans are closely watching Colorado, where Senator Mark Udall and Gov. John W. Hickenlooper, both Democrats, are in danger of losing. Mr. Obama won the state twice, and with a younger, increasingly progressive population, Colorado has been trending Democratic. If Representative Cory Gardner can defeat Mr. Udall, who made his campaign almost exclusively about abortion rights and contraception, it will demonstrate that Republicans still have strength in a state that could be essential to regaining the presidency.”
“Democrats are hoping their Georgia candidates, Michelle Nunn for the Senate and Jason Carter for governor, can either win or at least post strong showings. Of the states that the two parties did not compete for in the 2012 presidential race, Georgia was the closest (Mr. Obama lost by seven points), and it is gradually becoming more of a polyglot hub than an Old South vestige. If Ms. Nunn or Mr. Carter wins or loses narrowly while drawing less than 30 percent of the white vote, it suggests that Georgia will be a competitive presidential state sooner than many observers expected.”
Wall Street Journal: “Members of both parties, however, caution against reading too much into Tuesday’s results. The complexion of the electorate is expected to be markedly different in 2016. Turnout by Democratic-friendly voting blocs, including minorities, young people and unmarried women, tends to drop off in midterm elections and surge in presidential election years.”
Morning Line has an excellent hour-by-hour Election Night cheat sheet which gives you a good guide of what races to watch.
Also, check out the 2014 PBS Election Briefing Book.
Jonathan Bernstein: “I love Election Day. And this is a good one, with lots of great stories. We have a former senator from Massachusetts trying to make a comeback in New Hampshire, and a former Republican senator running as an independent in South Dakota. In Kansas, an independent has an excellent chance of winning. As for gubernatorial elections, there are more toss-ups than you can shake a stick at, including a race in Alaska where the independent candidate is supported by both Democrats and former Governor Sarah Palin. The career of at least one Republican presidential candidate, Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin, hangs in the balance; at least one other, John Kasich of Ohio, would get a boost from an expected big win.”
“We’ll probably get a new Senate majority, though there’s still an unusual amount of uncertainty. We could get a Republican gubernatorial landslide — in New England of all places. Or we could have a Republican sweep in the Senate, and major Democratic gains in governors along with large Republican pickups in state legislatures, despite all the talk of polarization and party voting. And we’ll get the usual mix of new legislators in Washington and the states, all sorts of serious aspiring lawmakers and total crackpots.”
Rick Hasen: “The real action will come in the evening as the polls close. There will be delays in some places with reporting of votes, which will lead some people to suspect some kind of chicanery (especially if the late reporting areas are from one’s opposing party). Only later in the evening (or the following morning) will it become clear enough if an election is within the margin of litigation.”
“To be close enough to go to a recount or litigation, generally we are talking votes within the hundreds or less (or perhaps a few thousand in a larger jurisdiction). That could happen anywhere. I fear it most happening in the Florida governor’s race—not only because of Florida’s politicized electoral system. Thanks to changes after 2000, the Secretary of State is a political appointee of the governor. A recipe for disaster.”
Many elections officials are probably saying the Election Administrator’s prayer.
Nick Gillespie: “It’s safe to say that by the end of today, a large chunk of Americans will be bitterly disappointed. If Republicans win big, Democrats will hang their heads and cuss the Koch brothers. If the GOP fails to snag the Senate and a fistful of statehouses, its partisans will mope around and blame Ebola-infected illegal immigrants for the loss.”
“But whichever side emerges victorious, both Republicans and Democrats should face up to a much bigger truth: Neither party as currently constituted has a real future. Fewer and fewer Americans identify as either Republican or Democratic according to Gallup, and both parties are at recent or all-time lows when it comes to approval ratings. Just 39 percent give Democrats a favorable rating and just 33 percent do the same for Republicans. Not coincidentally, each party has also recently had a clear shot at implementing its vision of the good society. If you want to drive down your adversary’s approval rating, just give him the reins of power for a few years.”
Roll Call: “House Democrats are bracing for losses on Election Day, but just how bad of a night will it be?”
Charlie Cook: “The odds of Republicans winning a Senate majority are obviously getting very high. Indeed, it would be a real shocker if Democrats held the GOP to a net gain of five seats or less, preventing a takeover of the majority. Unresolved, however, remains the question of just how big a night Republicans will have, and in turn, how to best interpret the results. At this point, at least in the Senate, this election seems to be a whole lot about the map, with more than a little political environment, including President Obama’s current unpopularity, thrown in for good measure.”
“If Republicans take the Senate, but their gains are limited to the six states that Mitt Romney carried by at least 14 points—open seats in Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia, along with the defeat of Mark Begich in Alaska, Mark Pryor in Arkansas, and Mary Landrieu in Louisiana (though this would not likely happen until a December 6 runoff)—that would be a good but hardly extraordinary night for the GOP. This would be a map election.”
After months of forecasting — and debating their methodologies — every one of the most reputable forecasters says that Republicans are favored to win the U.S. Senate.
Here are the odds each gives to Republicans for taking control of the upper chamber:
Election Lab: 98%
FiveThirtyEight: 76%
The Upshot: 70%
Princeton: 61%
Let us know what you think in the comments.
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Transitioning the site was enormous task. After 15 years and more than 100,000 posts, there will be bugs in this transition. Some things are still missing. Thanks in advance for your patience.
In the meantime, enjoy the new site and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
First Read: “We’ll have a good idea early in the evening of how Election Night is going to break. The two states to watch — North Carolina (where final polling places close at 7:30 am ET) and New Hampshire (where they close at 8:00 pm ET). Every scenario of Democrats holding on to the Senate assumes they win those two states. If we’re able to put those two in the Democratic column, then we’re going to have to wait for Alaska, especially if Georgia goes to a runoff. But if Republicans win one or both of North Carolina and New Hampshire, then Katy bar the door. It’s going to be an ugly night for Democrats. Here is the list of our other states to watch by final poll-closing time.”
“Indeed, if any state has been a bellwether of the nation’s political mood over the past decade, it’s been New Hampshire. Consider: Democrat Jeanne Shaheen lost the state’s Senate contest in the pro-GOP year of 2002; Democrats swept the state in 2006 and 2008; Republicans made gains there in 2010; and Democrats won them back in 2012. The only exception here was in 2004, when John Kerry (who was from neighboring Massachusetts) won New Hampshire, despite the GOP’s narrow wins that year. So for Democrats to have a good night, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) and Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) are going to need to buck history. “
“It is a recipe for sensory overload: Election returns will start flooding every device and screen Tuesday evening, capturing the outcomes of 36 governors’ contests, the battle for control of the Senate, nearly 50 competitive House races and countless ballot questions,” the New York Times reports.
“Some trends are clear: A big night is expected for Republicans, a dreary one for Democrats. But some mysteries and many intriguing questions remain, and their answers will emerge throughout the evening. Here is a guide to what to watch for on election night, and how to cut through the cacophony.”
“The obscure rules of elections will be under intense scrutiny on Tuesday as civic groups, political parties and the Department of Justice, concerned about fair play, monitor polling places for irregularities,” the New York Times reports.
“New rules to limit same-day registration or require photo identification will be in effect in some states, even as their constitutionality is argued in the courts. Most of the changes were adopted by Republican legislatures in the name of electoral integrity, even though evidence of voter fraud was negligible. They are opposed by Democrats who say tighter rules are aimed at discouraging minorities, poor people and college students from voting. All those groups tend to prefer Democrats.”
“The 2014 midterm elections mark a new level of collaboration between candidates and independent groups, eroding the barrier that is supposed to separate those running for office from their big-money allies,” the Washington Post reports.
“The vast sums of cash raised by independent groups has reordered the political landscape, compelling campaigns to find new ways to communicate their wants and needs without officially coordinating with outside players. Such direct coordination is prohibited under 40-year-old campaign finance rules.”
“This is not how the system used to work. Just a decade ago, candidates shied away from being too closely associated with ‘soft money,’ for reasons of appearance and for fear of running afoul of election laws.”
DailyKos has an excellent hour-by-hour guide to watch Election Night returns.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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