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Republicans In Retreat

March 30, 2017 at 9:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Unless Congress can pass a spending bill, the government will shut down in exactly one month.

That also happens to be President Trump’s 100th day in office.

With the congressional recess coming up, that means there are just eight legislative days to pass a spending bill. And sources tell Playbook that the House won’t take up the measure until the week of April 24, “meaning they will push it off until the last minute, and give themselves five weekdays to avoid a shutdown. What can go wrong?”

But there are signs Republicans are already backing down.

Speaker Paul Ryan suggested he would not get into a fight over Planned Parenthood funding — which means he’ll need Democratic votes to pass a spending bill through his chamber — and there are indications that Republican senators will also strip $1.5 billion in funding for Trump’s border wall as well. (Yeah, the one Mexico was supposed to pay for.)

Now that they’re in charge of the federal government, Republicans don’t seem willing so willing to let the government shut down on their watch.

A National Precinct Map

March 30, 2017 at 9:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This is pretty amazing: A full map of the 2016 presidential election down to the precinct level.

The map is searchable and allows you to see in the greatest detail available how the nation voted in the Trump-Clinton race and compare those results to the Obama-McCain and Obama-Romney elections.

Putin Says Claims of Interference Are ‘Lies’

March 30, 2017 at 8:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Vladimir Putin said that accusations that Russia interfered in last year’s U.S. elections are “lies” used for “domestic American politics,” CNBC reports.

Said Putin: “We said on numerous occasions and I reiterate that we are confident… and know for sure that opinion polls in the United States show that very many people are… friendly towards the Russian Federation, and I’d like to tell these people that we perceive and regard the United States as a great power with which we want to establish good partnership relations.”

He added: “All those things are fictional, illusory and provocations, lies. All these are used for domestic American political agendas. The anti-Russian card is played by different political forces inside the United States to trade on that and consolidate their positions inside.”

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Key Claim In Trump-Russia Dossier Verified

March 30, 2017 at 8:20 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

U.S. officials have “verified” a key claim in a report about Kremlin involvement in Donald Trump’s election — that a Russian diplomat in Washington was in fact a spy, the BBC reports.

Washington Post: Who is “Source D”?

Who Thought This Was a Good Idea?

March 30, 2017 at 8:11 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Just out: Who Thought This Was a Good Idea?: And Other Questions You Should Have Answers to When You Work in the White House by Alyssa Mastromonaco.

The book will will debut at number 10 this week on the New York Times bestseller list.

Paul Ryan Makes His Biggest Threat Yet

March 30, 2017 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

In an extended interview with CBS News, Speaker Paul Ryan discussed his failure to get Republicans in the House to pass a health care bill which would repeal Obamacare. He admitted his “Plan B” was to “keep talking to each other and figure out how we get to yes, and how we get this bill passed.”

And then he issued a threat to the conservative House Freedom Caucus:

What I worry about, Norah, is that if we don’t this, then President Trump will just go work with Democrats to try and change Obamacare and that’s not — that’s hardly a conservative thing… If this Republican Congress allows the perfect to be the enemy of the good, I worry we’ll push the president into working with Democrats, he’s been suggesting that as much.”

When pressed on why it was such a bad thing to work with Democrats, he said:

“I don’t want that to happen. You know why? I want a patient-centered system. I don’t want government running health care. The government shouldn’t tell you what you must do with your life, with your health care. We should give people choices.”

It’s pretty extraordinary that Ryan used the threat of Trump abandoning his party in an attempt to get his party unified. It’s also striking that Ryan admits he sees bipartisanship as a bad thing.

It’s probably an unrealistic threat, but it’s extraordinary nonetheless.

Lara Trump Hired by Trump’s Digital Firm

March 30, 2017 at 7:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The digital vendor for President Donald Trump’s political campaign has hired a new senior consultant: the president’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump,” the AP reports.

“Eric Trump’s wife, will serve as a liaison for San Antonio, Texas-based Giles-Parscale to Trump’s ongoing campaign, based at Trump Tower in Manhattan.”

Quote of the Day

March 30, 2017 at 6:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Rio Grande, what side of the river are you going to put the wall? We’re not going to put it on our side and cede the river to Mexico. And we’re probably not going to put it in the middle of the river.”

— Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, quoted by E&E News, suggesting a border wall could be placed on the Mexican side of the U.S. border.

North Carolina Strikes Deal to Repeal Bathroom Law

March 30, 2017 at 6:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“North Carolina’s Republican-controlled legislature and its Democratic governor announced late Wednesday that they had reached an agreement to repeal the controversial state law that curbs legal protections for lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people and sets rules that affect transgender bathroom use in public buildings,” the New York Times reports.

“But gay rights advocates raised objections, arguing that the compromise would continue to allow discrimination. And it was unclear late Wednesday whether the deal, if approved, would end the boycotts by sports leagues, businesses and others that have harmed the state’s reputation and economy.”

Washington Post: “This week, lawmakers are facing a clear deadline imposed by the NCAA, which gave North Carolina until Thursday to change the law if it wants to host any college sports championships through 2022.”

Few Trying to Save the Filibuster

March 30, 2017 at 6:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Senate is careening toward a historic change to its filibuster rules that takes it one step closer to a version of the majority-rule House of Representatives,” Politico reports.

“But no one seems to care enough to save the Senate from itself.”

“Unlike past institutional crises, there’s no bipartisan ‘gang’ stepping up to force a truce between the warring armies led by Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer. Acrimony between the two parties has become so routine that invoking the so-called nuclear option to get Neil Gorsuch confirmed to the Supreme Court is almost a ho-hum affair, assumed to be a done deal.”

Judge Extends Order Blocking Trump Travel Ban

March 30, 2017 at 6:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A federal judge in Hawaii decided Wednesday to extend his order blocking President Donald Trump’s travel ban, preventing the government from suspending new visas for people from six Muslim-majority countries and halting the U.S. refugee program,” the AP reports.

Trump Will Seek Only Modest Changes to NAFTA

March 30, 2017 at 6:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration is signaling to Congress it would seek mostly modest changes to the North American Free Trade Agreement in upcoming negotiations with Mexico and Canada, a deal President Donald Trump called a ‘disaster’ during the campaign,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

As Politico notes, most of what Trump wants changed in NAFTA is what was already negotiated in the Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement he already rejected.

Freedom Caucus Reckons with Wrath of Trump

March 30, 2017 at 6:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “The heat has left some of the remaining members of the group questioning whether the Freedom Caucus did the right thing in delivering an embarrassing rebuke to their new Republican president. Some hope that Speaker Paul Ryan’s move this week to re-open negotiations on health care will give them another chance to get to ‘yes’ — and save them from being faulted for the collapse of the GOP’s campaign to end Obamacare.”

“It’s unclear how prevalent buyer’s remorse is within the group, which has roughly three dozen members.”

History Suggests White House Can’t Lead on Tax Reform

March 30, 2017 at 6:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republican and Democratic veterans of Washington’s messy policymaking process have a vehement response to the idea that the White House, fresh from its failed attempt to repeal the Affordable Care Act, will take the lead on drafting legislation to reform the nation’s tax system: good luck with that,” Politico reports.

“Traditionally, the White House has stumbled when trying to craft major new legislation. Writing laws is, after all, what Congress gets paid to do — and lawmakers don’t like being big-footed by staffers at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave., even when they come from the same party.”

Why a Membership Model?

March 29, 2017 at 11:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Many have asked why Political Wire switched to a membership model last year. The answer is very simple: digital advertising is broken.

There was a time when the publisher could sell advertisers access to an audience. The incentives were perfectly in line: Publishers who put out a quality publication attracted a quality audience which made sense to quality advertisers. All parties had a stake in the system.

But as publishing moved to the Internet and digital ads evolved, the incentives grew out of whack. Publishers no longer have a direct relationship with most advertisers. Instead they increasingly use ad networks. These ad networks pool an audience across thousands of different publications and websites. Advertisers tell the networks what audience they want to target and their ads are shown wherever those readers happen to be visiting.

What does this mean? Publishers no longer have direct relationships with advertisers so they try to make themselves as attractive to ad networks as they can. This often means sharing personal data about their readers and resorting to other reader unfriendly tactics to show as many ads as they can. Advertisers no longer care about individual publications since their audience may come from thousands of different sites.

To make matters worse, the Internet has a virtually unlimited inventory of ad space which drives prices down to ridiculously low prices. This often leads to ads that are in very poor taste.

The membership model is much more direct and honest. Publishers are directly accountable to their readers. That’s it.

If you’re a regular reader and not yet a member, please consider it. In addition to supporting a site you love, you’ll also get exclusive analysis, new features and no advertising.

Join today for $5 a month or $50 for the year.

Trumpism Doesn’t Make Much Sense

March 29, 2017 at 9:52 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rich Lowry: “In light of all this, the product of the Ryan-Trump partnership on health care was a bill bizarrely at odds with a national election Republicans had just won on the strength of working-class voters. Under the GOP replacement, fewer people would have had coverage, and workers further down the income scale would have been particularly hard hit. For whatever reason, neither of these facts seemed to exercise the White House, at least not enough to try to do anything to fix them.”

“His energies were taken up trying to placate the conservative House Freedom Caucus. The supposed affinity between Trump and the Freedom Caucus is one of the great ideological misunderstandings of our time. Just because Trump and the conservative caucus are both ‘anti-establishment’ doesn’t mean they have anything else in common. Trump is more naturally an ally of the moderate Tuesday Group, except with a flame-throwing Twitter feed.”

“A President Trump acting more in keeping with his free-floating reflex to take care of people, as expressed in speeches and interviews, would have pushed the health bill to the left. But Trump so far hasn’t followed the logic of his own politics in dealing with Congress.”

Republicans Will Need Democrats to Prevent Shutdown

March 29, 2017 at 9:37 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Congressional Republicans are working aggressively to craft an agreement intended to keep the government open past April 28, but their bid to avert a shutdown hinges on courting Democrats wary of President Trump and skirting the wrath of both hardline conservatives and Trump himself,” the Washington Post reports.

“The murky path forward on government funding sparked widespread unease Wednesday within the business community and at the Capitol, where Republicans speculated that Trump’s request for money to build a wall along the border with Mexico and $30 billion in new defense spending may need to be delayed to avoid a shutdown.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

March 29, 2017 at 9:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“That was some weird shit.”

— Former President George W. Bush, quoted by New York Magazine, at Donald Trump’s inauguration in January.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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