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Clinton Moves to Lock Down Michigan

November 5, 2016 at 10:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Hillary Clinton plans to return to Michigan on Monday, the final day of campaigning before Election Day, as her campaign seeks to lock down a traditionally Democratic state where the race has tightened,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The Clinton campaign is also sending its top surrogates to Michigan. Former President Bill Clinton, the candidate’s husband, is set to campaign in Lansing on Sunday and President Barack Obama is scheduled to hold a rally in Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan, on Monday. The campaign is now running paid TV ads in Michigan as well.”

For members: What’s Going on in Michigan?

Battleground States Grow More Competitive

November 5, 2016 at 10:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“With hours until Election Day, the wildest U.S. presidential race in memory has grown more competitive in most of the battleground states, although Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton continues to hold a broader path to victory than Republican Donald Trump,” the Washington Post reports.

“The political map suggests that Clinton can lose several key states long assumed to be in her column and still reach the 270 electoral votes she needs to win.”

“Trump, meanwhile, has a new reason for optimism, as a growing number of states appear potentially within his grasp. But to win, he would have to take nearly all of them.”

For members: Clinton’s Most Obvious Path to Victory and Trump’s Best Map

Trump Rushed Offstage by Secret Service

November 5, 2016 at 10:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump was rushed offstage by security guards not long after he began speaking on Saturday night at a rally in Reno, Nev., in a startling scene that was not immediately explained,” the New York Times reports.

“Two members of Mr. Trump’s security detail raced toward Mr. Trump, with one of them grabbing him and forcibly escorting him away from the lectern. Moments before, Mr. Trump had seemed to notice a commotion in the crowd in front of him. As he was led away, video from the event appeared to show people near the stage subduing someone in the audience.”

Politico: “There has been no confirmation it was an assassination attempt.”


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State Poll Roundup: Saturday

November 5, 2016 at 10:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

Iowa: Clinton 44%, Trump 43%, Johnson 3% (Loras College)

Colorado: Clinton 40%, Trump 40%, Johnson 7% (Gravis)

Pennsylvania: Clinton 47%, Trump 45%, Johnson 2% (Gravis)

Virginia: Clinton 45%, Trump 38%, Johnson 5% (Roanoke College)

Pennsylvania: Clinton 44%, Trump 40%, Johnson 7% (Morning Call)

Iowa: Trump 46%, Clinton 39%, Johnson 5% (Des Moines Register)

Early Voting Trends Favor Clinton In Florida

November 5, 2016 at 6:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In a sign of momentum for Hillary Clinton, Florida Democrats widened their lead over Republicans in casting early ballots in the nation’s biggest political battleground Saturday morning as she and Donald Trump paid late-minute visits to the Sunshine State,” Politico reports.

Is Nate Silver Unskewing Polls In Trump’s Direction?

November 5, 2016 at 4:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Huffington Post: “The short version is that Nate is changing the results of polls to fit where he thinks the polls truly are, rather than simply entering the poll numbers into his model and crunching them.”

“Silver calls this unskewing a ‘trend line adjustment.’ He compares a poll to previous polls conducted by the same polling firm, makes a series of assumptions, runs a regression analysis, and gets a new poll number. That’s the number he sticks in his model ― not the original number.”

“He may end up being right, but he’s just guessing. A ‘trend line adjustment’ is merely political punditry dressed up as sophisticated mathematical modeling.”

New Bonus for Members!

November 5, 2016 at 3:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here’s an exclusive bonus for Political Wire members: I’ve created a Slack channel so you can chat about politics with other members — just in time for Election Night!

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Trump Cancels Event After Ryan Said He’d Appear

November 5, 2016 at 1:49 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump scheduled a Sunday afternoon rally in Wisconsin and Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), who has steadfastly refused to appear with Trump, told the Madison Capital Times, “I intend to do it if he’s here.”

“Seconds later, a spokesman for Trump’s Wisconsin campaign alerted reporters that the event had been canceled, citing a scheduling conflict.”

Christie Will Not Campaign for Trump This Weekend

November 5, 2016 at 12:03 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) canceled four New Hampshire campaign stops on behalf of Donald Trump this weekend after two of Christie’s top aides were convicted by a federal jury in connection with the “Bridgegate” lane closing scandal, WMUR reports.

The New Exit Polls

November 5, 2016 at 11:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Beginning at 11 am ET on Election Day, VoteCastr will make rolling projections of how many ballots have been cast for each candidate in seven key states: Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Slate: “This, as you may have heard, is controversial. It will break a decadeslong journalistic tradition whereby media outlets obey a self-imposed embargo on voting information under the unproven theory that it might depress turnout on Election Day.”

Trump Closes with Negative Ad

November 5, 2016 at 11:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump ends his campaign with ad bashing the political establishment and “corrupt machine.”

Clinton Closes with Positive Ad

November 5, 2016 at 11:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Hillary Clinton’s final ad doesn’t even mention Donald Trump.

Playbook: “It’s a minute-long spot, and it’s running in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin through Election Day.”

Democrats May Have Just Put Away Nevada

November 5, 2016 at 10:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jon Ralston: “Donald Trump will be in Reno on Saturday, but the Republicans almost certainly lost Nevada on Friday.”

“Trump’s path was nearly impossible, as I have been telling you, before what happened in Clark County on Friday. But now he needs a Miracle in Vegas on Election Day — and a Buffalo Bills Super Bowl championship is more likely — to turn this around. The ripple effect down the ticket probably will cost the Republicans Harry Reid’s Senate seat, two GOP House seats and control of the Legislature.”

David Wasserman says Nevada may be “a potential top-to-bottom Republican disaster.”

Elector Says He Won’t Vote for Clinton

November 5, 2016 at 8:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A Democratic elector in Washington state said Friday he won’t vote for Hillary Clinton even if she wins the popular vote in his state on Election Day, adding a degree of suspense when the Electoral College affirms the election results next month,” the AP reports.

There’s nothing in the Constitution that says the electors are required to vote for a particular candidate, but some states have penalties for so-called “faithless electors.”

Quote of the Day

November 5, 2016 at 8:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“They’re so much more brave than me. I wouldn’t have done what they did. I’m brave in other ways — I’m financially brave.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by the Washington Examiner, while paying tribute to seven Medal of Honor recepients who have endorsed him.

The Year Knowledge Died

November 5, 2016 at 8:21 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Noah Rothman: “Weaponized misinformation is hardly a new phenomenon. Its effect on the 2016 presidential race has, however, been exceptionally ominous. A campaign of deliberate deceptions involving but not limited to foreign entities seeking to disrupt the American political process to their own ends should be ringing alarm bells for patriotic American voters.”

“But there’s no one left to ring them; the stewards of objective discourse have been discredited in the minds of those this campaign has targeted. The age in which there was universally understood and incontrovertible truth is over. The information age has given way to something more closely resembling its antonym.”

Big Names Come Out for Clinton

November 5, 2016 at 7:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Hillary Clinton campaigned Friday in the company of friends and celebrities, first flanked by the billionaire businessman Mark Cuban in Pittsburgh and Detroit, and then at a concert in Cleveland with Jay Z and Beyoncé. High-wattage political leaders fanned out for her around the country: Her husband, Bill, stumped in Colorado, as President Obama rallied voters in North Carolina,” the New York Times reports.

“By comparison, Donald J. Trump was a lonely figure.”

“In the final days of the presidential race, Mr. Trump’s political isolation has made for an unusual spectacle on the campaign trail — and perhaps a limiting factor in his dogged comeback bid.”

Many Fewer High Quality Polls This Year

November 5, 2016 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“One reason there’s so much uncertainty in the race so close to Election Day is the sharp decline in high-quality polls this year,” Politico reports.

“FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver calculated the number of polls in competitive states released from Thursday evening through the day on Friday. In all, Silver counted 67 polls across 17 states.”

“That seems like a robust number, but of the 67 polls, only 5 were conducted by live telephone interviewers randomly calling voters on landlines and cell phones — still considered by many to be the most reliable form of polling.”

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Gaslighting: Gaslighting is a form of psychological manipulation that seeks to sow seeds of doubt in a targeted individual or group.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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