“We’re not going to fix America with senators and congressmen.”
— Sen. Marco Rubio, quoted by Politico, defending his missed votes in the U.S. Senate.
Clinton Looks for Big Win in Iowa
Wall Street Journal: “With less than a month before the first ballots are cast, Mrs. Clinton is hoping to rewrite her history in Iowa as the caucuses are again taking on an outsize importance to her presidential aspirations.”
“It was Mrs. Clinton’s third-place finish and decisive loss to then-Sen. Barack Obama in the 2008 caucuses that made clear her campaign, initially seen as inevitable, was in real trouble. This time, she faces a tough opponent in Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is challenging her from the left for the Democratic nomination. She is ahead of him in recent Iowa polls, though some surveys put her lead in single digits.”
Trump Has Quietly Built a Data Team
“Donald Trump’s rivals cling to the hope that the surprise GOP presidential front-runner lacks the know-how to lure supporters to the polls, but Politico has learned that his campaign several months ago assembled an experienced data team to build sophisticated models to transform fervor into votes.”
“The team is led by two low-profile former RNC data strategists… and includes assistance from the political data outfit L2… The data push is focused on integrating information Trump has collected, through his campaign website and at voter rallies, on nontraditional or unregistered supporters. It also includes commercial data obtained from the RNC and other sources, in an effort to mobilize voters in key early states.”
North Korea Says It Tested Hydrogen Bomb
“North Korea says it has conducted a successful hydrogen bomb test,” the AP reports.
The Wall Street Journal reported an earthquake “hit North Korea early Wednesday near the site of the nation’s previous nuclear tests and South Korean experts said the seismic activity appeared to be triggered by a man-made explosion.”
Meanwhile, Reuters reports North Korea “appears to have carried out a test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile last month.”
Trump Says Cruz’s Canadian Birth Could Be Problem
Donald Trump said that rival Ted Cruz’s Canadian birthplace was a “very precarious” issue, the Washington Post reports.
Said Trump: “Republicans are going to have to ask themselves the question: ‘Do we want a candidate who could be tied up in court for two years?’ That’d be a big problem. It’d be a very precarious one for Republicans because he’d be running and the courts may take a long time to make a decision. You don’t want to be running and have that kind of thing over your head.”
He added: “I’d hate to see something like that get in his way. But a lot of people are talking about it.”
Trump Compares Bill Clinton to Bill Cosby
Donald Trump wants someone to ask Bill Clinton how he’s different from Bill Cosby, Politico reports.
Said Trump: “The whole Cosby thing is a weird deal, and he’s got himself some big problems, and you’d almost have to ask Bill Clinton that. It would be very interesting question to someday ask him. There certainly a lot of very strong charges against him, some pretty bad stuff.”
Christie Slams Rubio with Sharp Attack
“As Chris Christie’s establishment rivals seize on his blue-state governing record, the New Jersey governor punched back here Tuesday with the kind of bluntness that had been his trademark but in this presidential campaign has been the domain of Donald Trump,” the Washington Post reports.
“Signaling a turn among center-right candidates into a tougher phase, Sen. Marco Rubio charged that Christie has been too closely aligned with President Obama on gun control, health care and Common Core education standards, echoing twin attack ads aired here by his allied super PAC.”
Said Christie: “I just don’t think Marco Rubio’s going to be able to slime his way to the White House. He wants to put out a whole bunch of negative ads? Go ahead. I hope that he will acknowledge at some point that I couldn’t care less.”
He also mocked Rubio as naive in the arts of political street-fighting: “He’s never been in a tough race in his life.”
Not Much GOP Can Do About Obama Gun Orders
“Congressional Republicans have widely condemned President Obama’s new executive orders on firearms, but for all the criticism there’s little chance this GOP-controlled Congress can block the president’s latest gun control moves,” Politico reports.
“A key problem: After congressional leaders cleared the decks ahead of the 2016 elections, there are no must-pass bills looming that Republicans could use as vehicles to force Democrats to undo Obama’s actions.”
The Hill: GOP scrambles for response to Obama
Haley Will Respond to Obama’s State of the Union
South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) will give the Republican response to President Obama’s State of the Union address, the AP reports.
Cruz Now Leads in California
A new Field Poll in California finds Ted Cruz has surged ahead of his GOP presidential rivals with 25%, followed by Donald Trump at 23%, Marco Rubio at 13%, Ben Carson at 9%, Rand Paul at 6%, and Jeb Bush at 4%.
Not only did Cruz catch Trump in first-choice rankings, but he is now twice as likely to be listed as a California Republicans’ second choice.
British Lawmakers Will Debate Banning Trump
British members of Parliament “are to debate calls for the US presidential candidate Donald Trump to be banned from the UK following his controversial comments about Muslims, after more than half a million people signed a petition,” the Guardian reports.
“More than 560,000 people have signed the petition demanding the billionaire businessman be barred. Politicians will also discuss a separate petition opposing such a ban, even though it only gained about 40,000 signatures – well below the 100,000 threshold for triggering a debate.”
Why Cruz May Be Able to Unite Republicans
This piece is only available to Political Wire members.
While the GOP establishment candidates are either pleading for attention or bashing each other, they’ve opened up a clear path to the Republican nomination for either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.
The pile up started because Marco Rubio didn’t capitalize on his chance to become the establishment choice and gave Chris Christie a second life. Now Rubio, John Kasich and Jeb Bush are all busy attacking Christie in new television ads. Bush and Christie are also attacking Rubio.
Meanwhile, Trump and Cruz are left virtually unscathed.
The first NBC News/SurveyMonkey tracking poll of 2016 still shows Trump with a huge 17 point lead over Cruz, but NBC News notes something also important: Cruz is the preferred second choice of Republicans.
Even more important is that the second choice preference for all candidates is actually a non-establishment candidate. This is great news for both Trump and Cruz.
But here’s why Cruz has the edge: The support for Cruz as a second choice comes from voters supporting both establishment and non-establishment candidates. That’s not true with Donald Trump and it suggests that Trump’s support will soften relative to Cruz as other candidates begin to drop out of the race next month.
While there’s a lot of time left, it’s becoming increasingly clear that Cruz may be the only candidate who can unite the establishment and non-establishment wings of the Republican Party.
Bevin Calls Special Elections in Kentucky
Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) “has set March 8 as the date for critical special elections to” fill four vacancies in the state House of Representatives caused by legislators taking jobs he offered them in the executive branch, the Louisville Courier-Journal reports.
“Those elections could tip the balance of power in the House, which will stand at 50 Democrats and 46 Republicans when the General Assembly convenes on Tuesday.”
Governors Don’t Fare Well After Losing White House Bids
Governing: “If you run for president, make sure you win… In recent decades, just two sitting governors have won the presidency: Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. But the list of sitting governors who have either lost or dropped out of a race for president is much lengthier. In most cases, these candidates’ gubernatorial careers suffered after they lost their bid. It’s happened to Democratic and Republican governors alike.”
Romney Son Mulls Run for Utah Governor
Josh Romney (R), the son of former presidential candidate Mitt Romney, told the Deseret News that “running for governor in 2020 is definitely something I am strongly considering. What others do will not affect my decision-making process.”
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) “said in a recent interview with the Deseret News that he wants to return to Utah and run for governor rather than stay in the House and try again for a leadership position or make a run for the Senate.”
The Latest on Wonk Wire
Democrats Go All In on Gun Control
“President Obama and Democrats are going all in on gun control,” The Hill reports.
“Obama on Tuesday will issue executive actions intended to curb gun violence by expanding background checks on people buying firearms online or at gun shows. The effort, which comes a week before the president’s final State of the Union address, underlines the Democratic Party’s decision to champion an issue it believes will be a winner in November.”
Wonk Wire: Vast majority of Americans support background checks for gun purchases
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Donald Trump reminds me of the Kim Kardashian of politics.”
— Carly Fiorina, quoted by Politico.
