Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) “faces a crucial moment in his political career as the formal House-Senate budget conference gets underway,” The Hill reports.
“Those who want to see a deal — a group that includes deficit hawks, appropriators, defense and farm lobbyists — say the popular House Budget Committee chairman can bargain. They argue that if anyone could sell a compromise to the restive House GOP, it is Ryan, and say there is enough wiggle room to do a deal.”
New York Times: “The first, and perhaps most painful, call for Kathleen Sebelius to resign as President Obama’s health secretary came this month from an old family friend: Senator Pat Roberts, Republican of Kansas, who once boasted of a ‘special relationship’ with Ms. Sebelius, forged when he worked for her father-in-law.”
“Now Ms. Sebelius, the former Kansas governor who is the public face of Mr. Obama’s health care overhaul, is facing a barrage of criticism over the problem-plagued rollout of its online insurance exchange. For Republicans, still reeling from their failed “defund Obamacare” strategy and government shutdown, she has proved an easy target.”
Politico: “Kathleen Sebelius may be irreplaceable — in that she cannot be replaced. Not because President Obama wouldn’t be able to find someone else to do the job, or that anyone’s too pleased with the launch of the Obamacare website. But the White House and Democrats on the Hill know a potential confirmation fight would be so torturous and difficult that they’re better off sticking with the Health and Human Services secretary they’ve got, despite all that’s gone wrong on her watch.”
Josh Rogin: “A White House national security official was fired last week after being caught as the mystery Tweeter who has been tormenting the foreign policy community with insulting comments and revealing internal Obama administration information for over two years.”
“Jofi Joseph, a director in the non-proliferation section of the National Security Staff at the White House, has been surreptitiously tweeting under the moniker @natsecwonk, a Twitter feed famous inside Washington policy circles since it began in February, 2011 until it was shut down last week.”
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A new CNN/ORC poll finds that 64% of Americans say they have an unfavorable view of the Republican party, an all-time high dating back to 1992 when CNN first asked the question. Only 30% say they hold a favorable view of the party.
Meanwhile, 56% say they have an unfavorable view of the tea party movement, another record high in CNN polling.
Joe Klein: “I’ve been skeptical about 3rd parties in the past. The best of them — the Populists, Ross Perot (at least when it came to budgetary matters) — tend to have their hot ideas co-opted by the Democrats or Republicans. That may still be true…although we’ve seen everything else in society fragmented, niched and marketized.”
“It may be that we won’t see a Third Party, but a rash of Independents breaking out across the country in 2014…. We’ve been doing this two-candidate thing for a long time, but we’ve reached a point of paralysis-a very un-American state of being-and something is going to come along and shock the system back to life.”
Roll Call: “It’s hard to say which should trouble Republican Party leaders the most right now: the sour mood among GOP donors, or the money suddenly swelling Democratic campaign and super PAC coffers.”
“Not only have the Democratic campaign committees that back House and Senate candidates outraised their GOP counterparts, but unrestricted super PACs that support Democrats have pulled in close to three times what GOP super PACs have so far.”
Roll Call: “Advocates of an immigration overhaul may see a silver lining in the recent 16-day government shutdown for their cause in the House, sensing that Republicans will want to win back some of the popular support they lost over the past month.”
“But House GOP insiders remain skeptical that the fractured Republican
caucus will be able to get something done on the issue anytime soon.”
Jon Stewart: “All that stands in the way of Democratic electoral success is a mildly competent implementation of the health care policy they battled so hard to keep.”
Here’s the latest over at Wonk Wire:
A new Rasmussen survey in Virgina shows Terry McAuliffe (D) has jumped to a 17-point lead over Ken Cuccinelli (R) in the Virginia gubernatorial race, 50% to 33%. Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis is a distant third with 8%.
Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) said that he is considering running for another term in 2016, when he would be 80 years old, the Washington Post reports.
Said McCain on KFYI-AM: “I’m seriously thinking about maybe giving another opportunity for you to vote for or against me in a few years from now. I’m seriously giving that a lot of thought.”
Reid Wilson notes that Democrats hold an edge in the generic congressional ballot by 8 points, 48% to 40%.
“But given the challenges Democrats face and the heavily gerrymandered districts that work to protect incumbent members of Congress, it would take a political wave to unseat the House Republican majority. And at the moment, the Democratic advantage isn’t large enough to suggest that a wave is building.”
Nate Cohn: “If there’s anything I could get people to understand about the next election, it’s this: Even a 2006 or 2010-esque tsunami might not give Democrats control of the House.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey of early voters in the Virginia Governor’s race finds Terry McAuliffe (D) has opened up a large early lead over Ken Cuccinelli (R) among those who have already cast ballots, 57% to 39%.
PolicyMic: “The new Texas law requires all voters to provide a photo ID that reflects their current name. If they cannot, voters must provide any of a series of other acceptable forms of identification all of which must match exactly and match the name on their birth certificate.”
“Supporters of these new laws insist that requiring voters to have an ID that matches their birth certificate is a reasonable requirement. As Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott has repeatedly said, ‘Almost every single person either has a valid photo ID … or it is very easy to get one.’ What they don’t say, however, is that the people who don’t are largely married women who have taken their husband’s name.”
“In fact, only 66% of women have an ID that reflects their current name. If any voter is using name different than what appears on their birth certificate, the voter is required to show proof of name change by providing an original or certified copy of their marriage license, divorce decree, or court ordered name change. Photocopies aren’t accepted.”
Rick Klein: “Imagine a world where the shutdown never happened, and the debt limit was never approached. We’d now be three weeks into constant coverage of a flawed website that might be part of a flawed broader health-insurance marketplace — if only the administration would release real details of who’s signing up and how. Secret government contracts would be handed out to anonymous techies to rush fixes into the system. The Obama White House would be hard-pressed to guarantee that everything would be working in time for the Jan. 1 start of the individual mandate.”
“If, in that context, Republicans were pushing a year-long delay to the individual mandate, now we’re talking about some tough votes for Democrats. Sen. Marco Rubio is making that push now, and he may make some progress. But – recalling that Rubio joined Sen. Ted Cruz and the tea party in pressing the de-fund strategy that led to the shutdown – this is what picking moments is all about. For opponents of the Obama health care law, the events of the last few weeks have made the fight harder, when it should have been a whole lot easier.”
Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK) told a national radio audience that his recent heart condition would have been fatal in any other country because of the “socialized medicine like Obama is trying to impose upon America,” Tulsa World reports.
“Inhofe underwent quadruple bypass surgery earlier this month after blockages were discovered during what was described as a routine checkup.”
A new WMUR Granite State Poll in New Hampshire shows Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) solidly ahead of former Rep. Charlie Bass (R), 51% to 34%, and former state Sen. Jim Rubens (R), 53% to 28%.
The Week: New poll shows Sen. Ted Cruz represents the mainstream of the Republican party.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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