A Gallup poll finds that 42% of Coloradans in the first half of 2014 identified as or leaned Republican and 42% identified as or leaned Democratic.
Holder Will Resign as Attorney General
Attorney General Eric Holder “is resigning, the Justice Department said Thursday, but plans to remain in office until a successor is confirmed,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Holder, the 82nd attorney general and the first African-American to serve in that position, had previously said he planned to leave office by the end of this year. Particularly in President Obama’s second term, Mr. Holder has been the most prominent liberal voice of the administration, leading its push for same-sex marriage and voting rights.”
The Hill reports that some Republicans “are warning President Obama against using a lame-duck session of Congress to push through Holder’s replacement, even as the White House signals its intention to fill the post quickly.”
Ugly Politics Stays on TV
Joe Klein: “It sounded to me, at first, like the Republicans had wised up in 2014. They were serving up smoked brisket, not red meat. There was a rationale for this: white women are likely to be the swing group in the North Carolina and Georgia elections. Women tend not to respond to rhetorical violence. Walker, the minister running for Congress, mentioned neither gay rights nor abortion. It was, I thought, grounds for optimism about the growing climate threat of political overheating. But after I saw the Perdue ad in Georgia, I realized that I–like the lovely folks who set up my road-trip meetings–was living in a community-oriented past, where speeches and rallies meant something. Nowadays, a candidate can be all smiles and more-in-sadness-than-in-anger on the stump, and run ads that are sicker than swamp gas on television, where it really counts.”
On Wonk Wire
Udall Trails in Colorado
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado finds Cory Gardner (R) just ahead of Sen. Mark Udall (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%.
Kobach Tries to Force Democrats to Name a Candidate
Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach (R) jumped into a lawsuit “filed by a disgruntled voter seeking to force Kansas Democrats to name a new U.S. Senate nominee in hopes of speeding the resolution of a legal dispute shadowing a race with possible national implications,” the Kansas City Star reports.
“Kobach, like the voter, argues that a state election law requires Democrats to replace ex-nominee Chad Taylor, who earlier this month dropped out of the race against three-term Republican Sen. Pat Roberts.”
Bush Gets Rough Welcome Back on Campaign Trail
“In one of his first public appearances of the 2014 campaign, former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida had a vivid preview Wednesday of the challenges he would face with his party’s conservative base should he seek the Republican nomination for president in 2016,” the New York Times reports.
“Standing alongside Thom Tillis, the North Carolina House speaker and Republican Senate candidate, Mr. Bush outlined his views on two of the issues he cares most passionately about: immigration policy and education standards. But as Mr. Bush made the case for an immigration overhaul and the Common Core standards, Mr. Tillis gently put distance between himself and his guest of honor, who had flown here from Florida on a dreary day to offer his endorsement in a race that could decide which party controls the Senate.”
Roberts Declared Virginia Home His Residence
Sen. Pat Roberts (R-KS) “put a signature to documents associated with the mortgage on a Virginia residence that identify the Fairfax County home as ‘principal residence’ of the three-term incumbent Republican,” the Topeka Capital Journal reports.
“The re-election campaign of the Kansan has been awash in controversy about whether his ownership of a duplex in Dodge City, which is rented out, and his payment of about $300 a month for a room in a Dodge City supporter’s home satisfied legal requirements for public office.”
Little Movement in House Races
Kyle Kondik: “The national numbers indicate that Republicans should be on the verge of big House gains. But a district-by-district analysis suggests a different story.”
“The GOP is already at close to a high-water mark in the House, and their list of truly appetizing targets is limited. Meanwhile, Democrats do not have nearly the broad playing field they had to defend in 2010, and their national third-party groups, like the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and House Majority PAC (the shadow DCCC), have a distinct dollar edge over their GOP rivals. That doesn’t mean the Democrats can overcome a poor national environment and capture the House — or even net a seat or two — but it does mean that the Democrats are decently positioned to limit their losses even if the national environment gets worse.”
Iraq Looms Large Again for Clinton
Washington Post: “War in Iraq is a subject that won’t go away for Clinton, whose Senate vote in 2002 to authorize the last war in that Middle Eastern country put her out of step with the Democratic base six years later. She lost her bid for president to a challenger who, as an obscure Illinois state senator, had come down on the antiwar side.”
“Now weighing another White House run, Clinton is faced again with the problems in Iraq and her role in shaping U.S. policy in the region. The airstrikes on the Islamic State group have inflamed the Democratic left, adding another potential line of attack against her if she decides to run for the White House.”
Warner Holds Solid Lead in Virginia
A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Sen. Mark Warner (D) leading challenger Ed Gillespie (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 48T to 39% among likely voters, with Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis at 6%.
Conversation with Sam Wang
Sam Wang, founder of the Princeton Election Consortium, joins us on the Political Wire podcast for a discussion of his midterm election forecasting model which has consistently shown Democrats likely to retain control of the Senate.
Listen here:
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Special thanks to the Cook Political Report for sponsoring this episode. If you aren’t reading it, you’re missing a lot.
Corbett Still Trails in Pennsylvania
A new Keystone Report/Magellan Strategies poll in Pennsylvania finds Tom Wolf (D) leading Gov. Tom Corbett (R) by nine points, 49% to 40%.
Other recent polls have shown Wolf leading by a much larger margin.
How Conservatives View Liberals
The Heritage Foundation — “which prides itself as being the intellectual backbone of the conservative movement” — held a conference on the future of liberalism, MSNBC reports.
Heritage’s David Azerrad set the tone by describing the philosophy of the left: “Give up your economic freedom, give up your political freedom, and you will be rewarded with license. It’s all sex all the time. It’s not just the sex itself — it’s the permission to indulge.”
Brown Still Headed for a Landslide in California
A new Public Policy Institute of California poll finds Gov. Jerry Brown (D) holding a commanding 54% to 33% lead among likely voters over challenger Neel Kashkari (R).
Coakley Leads By Double-Digits in Massachusetts
A new WBUR poll in Massachusetts finds Martha Coakley (D) maintains “a stable lead” in the five-way race for governor, beating out Charlie Baker (R) by 10 points, 46% to 36%.
Candidate Says He’s Being ‘Ambushed’ by Media
Embattled Laguna Beach City Council candidate Jon Madison says he is being “ambushed” over evidence that he falsified his age, educational and work histories on his campaign website, the Laguna Beach Coastline Pilot reports.
Said Madison: “I am who I am. I don’t think my educational history or my age or voter registration has anything to do with what I’m trying to do in this city.”
He added: “This is my first rodeo, and I’m disappointed that the media are bringing me down.”
GOP Accidently Reveals Secret Donor List
An error by the Republican Governors Association “recently resulted in the disclosure of exactly the kind of information that political committees given tax-exempt status normally keep secret, namely their corporate donors and the size of their checks,” the New York Times reports.
“The trove of documents… sheds light on the secretive world of 501(c)(4) political groups, just as the battle over their future intensifies. Unlike the Republican Governors Association, the tax-exempt Republican Governors Public Policy Committee is not required to disclose anything, even as donors hit the links, rub shoulders and trade policy talk with governors and their top staff members.”
