A new Palmetto Politics poll in South Carolina finds Gov. Nikki Haley (R) leading Vincent Sheheen (D) by just four points, 46% to 42% in a race that includes independent and libertarian candidates.
In a head-to-head matchup, Haley leads Sheheen, 53% to 40%.
First Read: “One more point on the Georgia contest: Yes, Perdue’s win contradicted the existing polls, but they weren’t good polls — which is why, for instance, you never saw us make note of them. We do try and only highlight pollsters who have good methodology and decent track records. In Georgia during this runoff campaign, that didn’t exist. Folks, we’re living in a political age where so much of the data is coming from surveys with either questionable methodology (like not reaching those with cell phones) or with partisan manipulation. And so it’s a reminder to take them with a grain of salt, especially in a low-turnout runoff.”
“And it also means: Be very careful of these aggregation polling sites. They don’t always make the data better… there are actually polling firms out there who seem to have been created for the sole goal of influencing or balancing out these aggregation sites. To the folks who run these aggregation sites, realize that when you mix crap with sirloin, it makes the sirloin taste like &$#% too. ”
Morning Line: “Overall, midterms are not kind to presidents and their parties. And when a president’s approval rating is below 50 percent, like President Obama’s is now, the president’s party loses an average of about three more seats in the Senate than if his approval were above 50 percent. Overall, since World War II, the president’s party has lost an average of 3.7 Senate seats in midterm elections. When the president’s approval is above 50 percent, the average loss is 2.6 seats. But when the president’s approval rating is below 50 percent, his party has seen an average loss of 5.5 seats in midterms — ironic, considering Republicans need to gain a net of six seats this year to win control of the Senate.”
“The wildcard here, though, is the continued unpopularity of the Republican brand. The party’s favorability hovers in the 30s, slightly worse than Democrats and the president.”
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A new Quinnipiac poll in Florida finds Charlie Crist (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the race for governor, 45% to 40%.
However, when Libertarian candidate Adrian Wyllie is added to the mix, the race is too close to call, with 39% for Crist, 37% for Scott and 9% for Wyllie
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) hinted at another run for president in 2016 in an interview with Real Clear Politics, saying “there’s a chance I could run” for president again.
First Read: “Make no mistake: The conservative legal strategy against the law (whether it was targeting the Commerce Clause or now this wording of the subsidies) has been very clever and almost effective. Politically, it’s also been VERY effective. But this legal strategy also creates a difficult longer-term political strategy for Republicans: Do they end up paying a price for wanting to take away benefits Americans are getting under the law? Yesterday, we saw Republican after Republican praise the D.C. Circuit ruling (even after the the 4th Circuit ruling came out), but it also raised a tricky follow-up question. Does that mean they support these Americans having to pay MORE for health care? All along, Republicans have charged that the law will hurt Americans’ pocketbooks. But then how do you cheer for a court ruling that would effectively increase health costs for Americans living in states that didn’t set up their own exchanges?”
David Perdue (R) stunned Georgia’s Republican political establishment Tuesday by capturing the party’s U.S. Senate nomination in his first run for office, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
Perdue “toppled 11-term Rep. Jack Kingston (R) by a narrow margin, setting up a battle of political newcomers with famous kin in the fall… In addition to his famous last name and lingering political network from his cousin, Perdue deployed $3 million of his own money to back his bid. Still, he was outspent by Kingston and allied Super PACs – including the deep pocketed U.S. Chamber of Commerce.”
Jim Galloway: 5 reasons Perdue shocked Georgia’s political world
Peach Pundit: Does anyone know how to poll this state?
“Now I don’t assert where he was born, I will just tell you that we are all certain that he was not raised with an American experience. So these things that beat in our hearts when we hear the National Anthem and when we say the Pledge of Allegiance doesn’t beat the same for him.”
— Rep. Steve King (R-IA), quoted by BuzzFeed, on President Obama.
A new SurveyUSA poll in Florida shows Charlie Crist (D) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the governor’s race by six points, 46% to 40%.
The previous poll had Scott leading by two points.
Texas Gov. Rick Perry (R) “is back in the game,” the Washington Post reports.
“What he lacks in sizzle from 2011 he’s making up for with newfound substance on issues such as the economy and turmoil in the Middle East. And with tens of thousands of undocumented immigrant children streaming into Texas, the border crisis gives Perry an animating issue placing him at the forefront of Republican politics… Perry’s two days of campaigning across rural northern Iowa garnered rave reviews from local conservatives.”
New York gubernatorial candidate Rob Astorino (R) slammed New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) after Christie contended as head of the Republican Governor’s Association that Astorino has little chance in his race against Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), the Poughkeepsie Journal reports.
Said Astorino: “Clearly, he could come across the bridge and not just raise money for himself but raise money for the Republican candidate here – unless he is unable or unwilling because he has an issue that we don’t know about with Andrew Cuomo and the Bridgegate scandal. And if that’s the case and he feels he can’t do it, then maybe he should step down as chairman because his role is to raise money for Republican candidates.”
A new Roanoke College poll in Virginia shows Sen. Mark Warner (D) with a 25-point lead over challenger Ed Gillespie (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 22%, with Libertarian Robert Sarvis at 5%.
A new Harper Polling survey in Arizona shows a tightening Republican primary contest for governor with Doug Ducey (R) just ahead of Christine Jones (R), 23% to 21%, with another 22% undecided.
“There is no wiggle room. I am not running for president. No means no.”
— Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D), quoted by the Boston Globe.
Longshot New York congressional candidate Nick Di Iorio (R) “has been signed to star in a proposed reality show about candidates running in ‘unwinnable’ races. In a draft opinion released Monday, the Federal Election Commission said Di Iorio can appear on the series — as long as he doesn’t get paid,” the New York Daily News reports.
Tom Goldstein: “The Affordable Care Act took a potentially serious hit today when the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals struck down a rule that extended the law’s health-care subsidies to residents of the three-dozen states where the federal government runs a health insurance exchange. But the fact that another court of appeals upheld the same rule on the same day shows that the legal issue is very thorny and will very likely be ultimately resolved by the Supreme Court. And the administration probably will come out ahead in the end.”
“The issue is so close and contentious that it is basically inevitable that the Supreme Court will have to resolve it. If case goes straight to the Supreme Court, we will get a final decision within a year; otherwise, it will probably be two. My best guess is that a majority of the Justices will cite the limited role of the courts and rule for the administration and uphold the rule by the same5-to-4 majority that rejected the major constitutional challenge to the law two years ago.”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Colorado finds Sen. Mark Udall (D) just ahead of challenger Cory Gardner (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 44% to 43%.
In the race for governor, Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) edges challenger Bob Beauprez, 44% to 43%.
“I wasn’t speeding, I was qualifying.”
— Sarah Palin, quoted by TMZ, after being caught speeding while blaming Sammy Hagar’s, “I Can’t Drive 55” which was playing on the oldies station she was listening to.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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