First Read: “Between now and Election Day, you’re going to see a lot of divergent poll numbers. And the reason why is that not all likely voter models are created the same, even among good pollsters. We’re seeing more money being spent on turnout than ever before in a midterm cycle, but we’re also seeing American voters more turned off from the midterms than before. Those two things make polling more unpredictable. No one is confident who will be showing up to vote.”
DeMaio Denies Harrassment and Bribery Claims
California congressional candidate Carl DeMaio (R) said “a former staffer who is the suspect in a May burglary at his campaign office has accused DeMaio of sexually harassing him,” the San Diego Union Tribune reports.
DeMaio called the the claim “an outrageous lie.”
Politico: “DeMaio was peppered with questions from reporters about whether he had sexually harassed and then intimidated and attempted to bribe a former campaign staffer.”
Cuomo Reflects in New Memoir
New York Times: “Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo learned about his divorce from a journalist. He blames himself for his father’s political demise. As for his own political near-death experience, a gaffe that ultimately led him to quit the 2002 governor’s race in disgrace: His mistake was ‘stupid,’ but reporters made it seem even worse.”
“Those are among the more potent revelations included in Mr. Cuomo’s 517-page memoir, All Things Possible: Setbacks and Success in Politics and Life, which is to be released by HarperCollins’s Harper imprint on Tuesday, just three weeks before Election Day as the governor seeks a second term. ”
White House Aide Linked to Prostitution Scandal
“As nearly two dozen Secret Service agents and members of the military were punished or fired following a 2012 prostitution scandal in Colombia, Obama administration officials repeatedly denied that anyone from the White House was involved,” the Washington Post reports.
“But new details drawn from government documents and interviews show that senior White House aides were given information at the time suggesting that a prostitute was an overnight guest in the hotel room of a presidential advance-team member — yet that information was never thoroughly investigated or publicly acknowledged.”
“The information that the Secret Service shared with the White House included hotel records and firsthand accounts — the same types of evidence the agency and military relied on to determine who in their ranks was involved.”
Conversation with Stan Greenberg
Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg joins us on the Political Wire podcast for a look at the midterm elections, one in which he sees now Democrats “more likely to hold control of the U.S. Senate than not.”
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Special thanks to the Cook Political Report for sponsoring this episode. If you haven’t subscribed yet, you really need to.
Fox News Polls Show Races Trending to GOP
Fox News released new polls in five key U.S. Senate battleground states:
Kansas: Sen. Pat Roberts (R) leads Greg Orman (I), 44% to 39%.
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) leads Sen. Mark Begich (D), 44% to 40%.
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) leads Sen. Mark Pryor (R), 46% to 39%.
Colorado: Cory Gardner (R) leads Sen. Mark Udall (D), 43% to 37%.
Kentucky: Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) leads Alison Lundergan Grimes (D), 45% to 41%.
Harry Enten: “Fox News polls throughout this election cycle have had a fairly strong pro-Republican ‘house effect,’ a measure of how a pollster’s results compare to other polls.”
Republicans Plan Obamacare Showdown in Lame Duck
“A group of Senate Republicans have their eye on another Obamacare showdown in the lame-duck session,” according to Roll Call.
“The 14 Republicans, led by Marco Rubio of Florida, wrote a letter urging Speaker John A. Boehner to “prohibit the Obama administration” from spending money on an ‘Obamacare taxpayer bailout.’ They point to a legal opinion from the Government Accountability Office that said additional funding authority would be needed to make payments to insurance companies under the risk-corridor component of the Obamacare health care exchanges. The Republicans say taxpayers could be on the hook for bailing out insurance companies that suffer losses.”
NBC Wanted Jon Stewart for ‘Meet the Press’
Before choosing Chuck Todd, NBC News president Deborah Turness held negotiations with Jon Stewart about hosting “Meet the Press,” three senior television sources tell New York magazine.
One source explained that NBC was prepared to offer Stewart virtually “anything” to bring him over.
Roberts Rebounds in Kansas
A new CNN/ORC poll in Kansas finds Sen. Pat Roberts (R) has galvanized rank-and-file Republican voters to close the gap with challenger Greg Orman (I) and now leads by one point, 49% to 48%.
Most other recent polls show Orman with a lead.
Democrats Spending Money in South Dakota
“The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will spend $1 million in South Dakota — mostly on television and the rest on field operations — in a last-minute attempt to hold a U.S. Senate seat they now view as winnable,” Bloomberg reports.
“A DSCC official said advertising will likely be on the air by Monday. As in the Kansas Senate race, Democrats believe they now have a chance to offset inevitable losses elsewhere and maintain control of the Senate.”
Hagan Barely Ahead in North Carolina
A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Kay Hagan (D) just ahead Thom Tillis (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%.
A new Rasmussen poll finds Hagan leads 48% to 46%.
As Colorado Goes, So Goes the Nation?
Joshua Green: “Colorado’s Senate race has become a presidential campaign in miniature, with two strong candidates who are both career politicians facing off over mainly national issues, as billionaires on the left (Steyer) and the right (the Koch brothers) saturate the airwaves with tens of millions of dollars’ worth of attack ads.”
“Politically, Colorado is a slightly exaggerated version of America. Because the state makes it so easy to place initiatives on the ballot, it’s a testing ground for highly charged national issues.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“The great thing about not being president anymore is you can say whatever you want — unless your wife might run for something.”
— Bill Clinton, quoted by NBC News.
Perdue Barely Ahead in Georgia
A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia shows David Perdue (R) leading Michelle Nunn (D) by just one point in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45%.
Carter Blasts Obama Foreign Policy
Former President Jimmy Carter criticized President Obama saying it was hard to figure our exactly what his policy is in the Middle East, the Fort Worth Star Telegram reports.
Said Carter: “It changes from time to time. I noticed that two of his secretaries of defense, after they got out of office, were very critical of the lack of positive action on the part of the president.”
He also said the U.S. waited to long to respond to the Islamic State: “We let the Islamic state build up its money, capability and strength and weapons while it was still in Syria. Then when [ISIS] moved into Iraq, the Sunni Muslims didn’t object to their being there and about a third of the territory in Iraq was abandoned.”
On Wonk Wire
Sarah Silverman Fills the Gap
Sarah Silverman released a very funny but probably not safe for work video on pay equity.
Flashback Quote of the Day
“I cannot predict precisely what the rate would be at the end of one year. I can tell you that over a period of four years, by a virtue of the polices that we put in place, we get the unemployment rate down to 6 percent, perhaps a little lower.”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by MSNBC in May 2012, noting the unemployment rate is already down to 5.9% without Romney’s policies.
