“Republicans have come surging back in the ad wars after a weak September, when Democrats seemed to dominate the airwaves. Heading into the final month before Election Day, Republican outside groups are helping even the score with big media buys,” the New York Times reports.

“Republicans lead the spending in Arkansas, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, New Hampshire and Oregon. Democrats are spending more in just two states, Alaska and Colorado.”

Politico: “It’s been the most remarkably enduring story line of Election 2014: three Democratic senators defying their states’ deep red complexion and their president’s abysmal approval ratings to stay competitive in races that should have, on paper, been lost long ago. The question all along has been, Could it possibly last?”

“Now, a month out from the election, Republicans are seeing subtle but perceptible signs that contests in Alaska, Arkansas and Louisiana — all three pivotal in the battle for the Senate — are finally breaking their way.”

A new Gravis Marketing survey in Iowa finds Joni Ernst (R) well ahead of Bruce Braley (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 41%.

Former Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA) said his daughter, U.S. Senate candidate Michelle Nunn (D), “has little obligation to support Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) should Democrats maintain the chamber in November – given that Reid, in the spring of 2013, asked her not to run for Sam Nunn’s old seat,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

Said Nunn: “They said they had their eye on another candidate.”

Mississippi Senate candidate Travis Childers (D) “signed an anti-amnesty pledge a conservative organization is pushing, a move that could endear him to disgruntled supporters of former tea party candidate Chris McDaniel (R), the runner-up to Sen. Thad Cochran (R) in the GOP primary,” the Washington Post reports.

Roll Call‘s new list of most the 10 most vulnerable House members shows Republicans “are poised to add at least a handful of seats to their majority in the midterms.”

A new Public Policy Polling survey in South Dakota finds Mike Rounds (R) leading the U.S. Senate race with 35%, followed by Rick Weiland (D) at 28% and Larry Pressler (I) at 24%.

“I would definitely vote for him, I think it’s safe to say, otherwise I may not be invited back home for Thanksgiving.”

— George P. Bush (R), quoted by the Wall Street Journal, on whether he would support a White House bid for his father Jeb. He had previously said he was “staying out of the race.”

“The gender gap — the difference between Republicans’ usual margin of victory among men and Democrats’ usual margin of victory among women — is nothing new. It has been evident for years in almost every election up and down the ballot. But a National Journal analysis of public polls, and interviews with strategists from both parties, suggests that the gap has ballooned to historic proportions across 2014’s battleground states. Democrats are running campaigns designed to press an advantage among women that is helping the party compete in a number of races despite an unfriendly political climate and steep GOP advantages among men. Meanwhile, Republicans are searching for issues to combat the trend with female voters.”

First Read: “In a different year, the series of security breaches – and misinformation about them – that led to Secret Service director Julia Pierson’s resignation Wednesday would get plenty of news coverage, but it probably wouldn’t move the needle all that much politically. But this year, it’s just the latest and most dramatic example of the government failing at its most basic responsibilities. Think about it: A year ago, HealthCare.gov was crashing spectacularly and the federal government was shut down. Since then, the Veterans Affairs Department, the NSA and the IRS all have been caught up in abuse and mismanagement scandals. Now, the tough and supposedly elite forces that the president himself entrusts with his own life failed (in epic fashion, at least three times!) to carry out the basic mission. And the White House was largely in the dark about it.”

“It sure looks to the public like every part of government — even the ones supposedly free from the partisanship that usually gets the blame for dysfunction — is falling down on the job. And this comes at a time that the CDC is trying to reassure Americans about Ebola. With this accumulation of stories backing the narrative of utterly incompetent government, it makes sense that voters want a change — any change — to fix it.”