“It’s always a burden to run with ‘R’ for Republican after you name.”
— Mitt Romney, in an WBZ4 interview when he was running for Massachusetts governor in 2002.
Deep South Voters Still Think Obama is a Muslim
The most interesting detail from a new survey by Public Policy Polling is that a majority of Republicans in Alabama and Mississippi — states with primary elections on Tuesday — believe President Obama is a Muslim.
Key findings: In Alabama, 45% of Republican voters in Alabama think Obama is a Muslim, while 41% are not sure. In Mississippi, 52% of Republicans think Obama is Muslim, while 36% are unsure.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“If I’m a weak frontrunner, what does that make Newt Gingrich? Because I’m well ahead of him.”
— Mitt Romney, quoted by Politico, responding to Newt Gingrich’s characterization of his campaign.
Will Bloomberg Back Obama?
The New York Times learns of a lunch between New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and President Obama at the White House a few weeks ago:
“Over a long private lunch at the White House, President Obama posed a question to Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg: what are you interested in doing next? Mr. Bloomberg’s precise response is unknown. But their meeting a few weeks ago, confirmed by aides to both leaders and previously undisclosed, was potentially significant for both men, as Mr. Obama seeks support for his presidential campaign and Mr. Bloomberg ponders his post-mayoral career.”
“Mr. Obama, facing a bruising re-election fight, is eager to attract the kind of centrist, independent voters drawn to Mr. Bloomberg’s brand of politics. Mr. Bloomberg, confronting the end of his career in elected office, is grappling with how to exert the kind of influence over public discourse that he has had as mayor of the nation’s largest city.”
Does Presidential Pursuasion Work?
Ezra Klein notes there’s a lot of evidence that presidential persuasion isn’t effective when applied to the public. In fact, it’s often counterproductive during times of divided government when a stirring presidential speech on a particular bill can make it harder, rather than easier, for the opposition party to support it.
The implications are fairly radical: The power of the presidential bully pulpit is wildly overrated in the Beltway, and overrated in a way that actually makes it harder for voters to hold legislators accountable and for politicians to get anything done.
Gingrich Has Campaigned the Most in Alabama, Mississippi
Though he’s surprised many with his strong showing in recent polls, NBC News notes Newt Gingrich “has spent a combined 10 days in both states — six in Alabama and four in Mississippi.”
“By comparison, Rick Santorum has spent three days in each of those states, while Mitt Romney has spent two days in each. Ron Paul has not visited either state. And no candidate has campaigned in Hawaii, which also holds its contest on Tuesday.”
Messaging Rising Oil Prices
The Fix has the play-by-play for how President Obama and Republicans with national aspirations are spinning the rising price of gas.
“All of the Republican criticism comes as the Obama Administration
takes note of the one-year anniversary of the release of the president’s
energy plan by issuing a progress report… Obama insists Republicans
are engaging in meaningless sloganeering even as they are unwilling to
revoke more than $4 billion in tax breaks for oil
companies… Republicans believe that Obama is putting ideology ahead of
the good of the American people, citing the rejection of the Keystone
XL pipeline as the most egregious example… The political onus for
action likely lies with the president. A CBS News poll conducted at the
end of last month showed that 54 percent of those tested said the
president could do ‘a lot’ about the price of gasoline, while just 34
percent said he could not.”
Election Expectations Move Obama’s Way
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that more than half of Americans for the first time expect President Obama to be re-elected.
But it won’t be easy: Even as expectations have moved his way, rising gas prices have dented the president’s rating on handling the economy, his overall job approval has slipped back under 50 percent and he’s reverted to a dead heat in public preferences against Mitt Romney.
Quote of the Day
“This isn’t a mathematical formula — this race has a tremendous amount of dynamics.”
— Rick Santorum, in an interview on Meet the Press, on the GOP delegate chase.
Santorum Leads But Most Expect Romney to Win
A new CBS News/New York Times poll shows Rick Santorum holding a very slight lead over Mitt Romney among Republican primary voters across the nation, 34% to 30%.
However, 55% of GOP voters expect Romney to eventually win the party’s presidential nomination.
High Stakes on Tuesday
There are Republican primaries in Alabama and Mississippi tomorrow and recent polls point towards very close race.
First Read: “Romney sneaking out a win in either of the contests would prove that he can win in the South and that conservative GOP voters are beginning to coalesce around his candidacy. But losses in them would confirm that Romney continues to have problems with these voters and — more importantly — that the primary season will last through April if not longer. For Santorum, wins in both Alabama and Mississippi would prove that he’s the chief conservative alternative to Romney, and that he has the momentum to keep this race going. But losing them would suggest his campaign is running out of gas. And for Gingrich, winning both states would keep his candidacy alive, but losses in these southern states would reveal that he’s become a political zombie, propped up solely by Sheldon Adelson and the pro-Gingrich Super PAC. Those are the stakes for tomorrow.”
Too Close to Call in Alabama and Mississippi
Two new Public Policy Polling surveys suggest it’s going to be a close election night in both
Mississippi and Alabama.
In Mississippi Newt Gingrich is holding on to a
slight lead over Mitt Romney, 33% to 31%, followed by Rick Santorum at 27% and Ron Paul at 7%.
In Alabama, Romney barely edges Gingrich, 31% to 30%, followed closely behind by Santorum at 29% and Paul at 8%.
Two new American Research Group polls also show a close race.
In Mississippi, Romney leads with 34%, followed by Gingrich
with 32%, Santorum 22%, and Paul at 8%.
In Alabama, Gingrich leads with 34%, followed by
Romney at 31%, at Santorum 24%, and Paul at 6%.
Good Week for Romney
After a series of stressful weeks for Mitt Romney, filled with must-win contests and doubts about his electoral prospects, The Hotline notes that Romney finally has a week where he can let things fall as they will.
“Romney
has the least to lose this upcoming week as Alabama and Mississippi
voters head to the polls. True, talk that Romney can’t coalesce
conservative voters is likely to continue if Romney underperforms in the
red southern states. But the stakes are much higher for former House
Speaker Newt Gingrich and former Sen. Rick Santorum… If Gingrich loses
to Santorum, the former Speaker’s campaign would have a tough time
arguing there’s any credible path for him in the presidential race…
But if Gingrich wins, he remains a credible threat to Santorum in the
race, undercuts Santorum’s argument that he is the candidate to harness
conservative fervor, and ends Santorum’s hope (at least for the time
being) that Gingrich will drop out of the race.”
No Moderates Allowed
Juan Williams:
“The death of the political middle is the defining shift taking place
in American politics today. It is ending the tradition of political
leadership that rises above ideology, region, party, religion and even
race to attain statesmanship… The Congress has become an increasingly
uncomfortable place for voices of moderation. Many of them are fed up
and have decided that 2012 is the year they will call it
quits… Because of the exodus — if not expulsion — of the remaining
moderates from Congress this year, American politics will become even
more polarized and dysfunctional. If you like the ideological extremism
and obstructionist paralysis that has characterized the 112th Congress,
then you will love the 113th.”
Gingrich Seeks Ticket with Perry
Sources close to Newt Gingrich’s presidential campaign tell Fox News that there are preliminary discussions to name Texas Gov. Rick Perry as his running mate in an effort to unite conservatives.
Perry endorsed Gingrich when he dropped his own presidential bid earlier this year.
However, at least two senior aides to Perry were apparently dismissive of the idea. One noted that in the past, Perry has likened the Vice Presidency to a bucket of warm spit.
Romney’s Preparation Pays Off
Rick Klein: “If and when Romney locks down the GOP nod, this weekend’s voting will mark a case in point as to how. Romney was decimated in the biggest contest held Saturday, in Kansas, with Rick Santorum securing an outright majority in a four-way field, and Romney struggling to hit 20 percent.”
“But Romney appears likely to walk away from the weekend with about as many delegates in his column, and possibly even more. Romney won overwhelmingly in the U.S. territories of Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and the Virgin Islands; add that to the final set of caucus contests in Wyoming, and Romney got to wash out his big loss in Kansas.”
“That means a handful of contests where turnout is rivaled by class presidency elections in midsize high schools may end up being responsible for selecting the party’s nominee… Wins like this weekend’s did not happen by accident. Romney’s was the only campaign to prepare for the long haul of the race with detailed legal and structural plans for how to win delegates in every obscure corner.”
Most Favor Immediate Pullout from Afghanistan
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 60% of Americans say the war in Afghanistan has not been not worth fighting and just 30% believe the Afghan public supports the U.S. mission there — “marking the sour state of attitudes on the war even before the shooting rampage allegedly by a U.S. soldier this weekend.”
Indeed 54% say the United States should withdraw its forces from Afghanistan without completing its current effort to train Afghan forces to become self-sufficient.
Exchange of the Day
The Chicago Tribune interviews billionaire investor Ken Griffin:
Q. What do you think in general about the influence of people with your means on the political process? You said shame on the politicians for listening to the CEOs. Do you think the ultrawealthy have an inordinate or inappropriate amount of influence on the political process?
A. I think they actually have an insufficient influence. Those who have enjoyed the benefits of our system more than ever now owe a duty to protect the system that has created the greatest nation on this planet. And so I hope that other individuals who have really enjoyed growing up in a country that believes in life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness — and economic freedom is part of the pursuit of happiness — (I hope they realize) they have a duty now to step up and protect that.”
