Atlanta-Journal Constitution: “More than $14 million worth of ads have already flooded Georgia’s 6th District. And with a June 20 runoff looming, outside groups are readying another volley. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC with ties to Paul Ryan, was quick out the gates with a digital spot that depicts Ossoff as a creation of Nancy Pelosi. It’s one of a string of advertisements linking Ossoff to the House Democratic leader, who polls abysmally in the conservative-leaning north Atlanta district.”
When Bob Gray (R) realized he did not make the run off in Georgia’s 6th congressional district special election, he implored his supporters to “rally behind” Karen Handel (R), who spent much of the campaign distancing herself from President Trump, the Washington Post reports.
“No one cheered; there was no applause for party unity. And why should there be? For at least some of Gray’s most hardcore supporters, they had supported him specifically because of his love for Trump.”
First Read: “Looking ahead to the June 20 runoff in GA-6, it’s going to be very competitive. Just compare Ossoff’s percentage (48.1%) with the combined percentage of the Top 4 GOP candidates (48.2%). Or compare the total percentage for all Democrats (48.9%), versus the percentage for all 11 Republicans in the field (51%). Still, with Ossoff getting 48% last night, you might give him the very slight edge heading into the runoff.”
“And so Democrats need a win here; anything less will be a disappointment for them. Also, the race will be a good early test of what is worse — President Trump or House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi? Because Georgians are going to see a lot of TV ads in the next two months tying the nominees to both of these national politicians.”
Harry Enten: “Polls conducted before Tuesday suggested that Handel and Ossoff were running in a near tie in a potential runoff. In an average of five polls conducted since mid-March, Ossoff held a scant 0.4-point lead over Handel. A formula created by my colleague Nate Silver based off previous runoff elections also points to a tight runoff.”
Politico: “Republicans and Democrats were already telegraphing strategy for a two-month runoff even before voters in Georgia’s 6th District had finished casting ballots on Tuesday, when Ossoff garnered 48 percent of the all-party primary vote. Last Friday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee posted research materials on Handel and another top Republican contender online, highlighting preferred attack lines for outside groups that could dive into the fray.”
“And Republicans look set to reprise their TV ads casting Ossoff as a bad fit for the usually conservative-leaning district: National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Steve Stivers linked Ossoff to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and “Hollywood stars” in his late-night statement about the race, while the Congressional Leadership Fund mentioned ‘Hillary’ and ‘liberal.'”
A Republican tells Playbook: “Everyone is in ‘disbelief!’ that Trump has made GA-06, otherwise a safe R district, competitive. Well, it cuts both ways – he also won PA, MI, and WI in the presidential – first R since Reagan. It’s time to finally realize the old rules don’t apply. Trump is an unorthodox candidate and president and he’s going to make previously safe seats (both R and D) competitive in the mid-terms because he changes the old dynamic.”
Jon Ossoff (D) and Karen Handel (R) are headed to a runoff in Georgia’s 6th congressional district after the Democrats fell just short of winning a majority of votes.
Washington Post: “Ossoff could find it difficult to sustain the momentum he witnessed this past week in a traditionally Republican district that has been in GOP hands since 1979. Although Handel had earned 19.7 percent of the vote with 88 percent of precincts reporting, in a runoff she is widely expected to rally Republican voters who had divided their votes among 11 GOP candidates in Tuesday’s race.”
The New York Times has the final results.
First Read: “Democrats always wanted to make tonight’s special congressional election in Georgia about President Trump. And he’s obliged in the last 24 hours — by tweeting about the contest… and then by recording a robocall in the contest.”
“And while Trump here is trying to gin up Republican turnout — to keep Ossoff below 50% to force a June 20 runoff — his involvement could also further motivate Democrats. It’s the same kind of damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-don’t situation Barack Obama frequently faced: You’re going to get blamed if you don’t get involved and lose, so you might as well help your downballot candidates. But what’s remarkable here is that Trump isn’t touting a particular Republican (11 are in the field); he’s trying to stop one single Democrat — in a congressional district (urban, upscale) that’s not necessarily tailor-made for the president.”
FiveThirtyEight: Everything you need to know about the Georgia 6th congressional district special election.
Nate Cohn: “It’s hard to remember a House race that has earned more national attention than the one to replace Secretary Tom Price in Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District. Republicans have dominated the district for a generation, but the leading Democratic candidate, Jon Ossoff, has an outside shot to win outright on Tuesday by winning more than 50 percent of the vote.”
“It’s not clear what to expect Tuesday night, however. It’s hard to estimate how many people will vote, and the public polls are of fairly low quality. One prediction: It’s likely that the first votes counted will be misleadingly good for Mr. Ossoff.”
A new Clout Research poll in Georgia’s special election finds Jon Ossoff (D) remains the strong favorite ahead of the election, holding on to 41% of voter support.
Among Republicans, Bob Gray (R) now appears to be edging ahead of Karen Handel, 17% to 15%. Meanwhile, Judson Hill is pulling 10% support, while Dan Moody trails with 9%.
“Fractious Georgia Republicans tried to unite behind a ‘stop Jon Ossoff’ movement ahead of Tuesday’s special election to represent a suburban Atlanta district, with party leaders urging voters to stream to the polls and prevent an upset victory by the Democrat,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“Republicans face a daunting enthusiasm gap in the 18-candidate race to represent the 6th District, and the leading GOP contenders have spent the final days feuding with each other. Ossoff, one of five Democrats in the race, is leading in the polls – and aiming for an outright victory in Tuesday’s vote.”
A new Opinion Savvy poll in Georgia’s 6th congressional district finds Jon Ossoff (D) at 42% support — less than the 50% he needs to avoid a run off.
In hypothetical match ups with the leading Republicans in a run off, each race is within the margin of error.
“They haven’t really seriously thought through the scenario of a mutually-assured-destruction path for Republicans. Then you clear the way for 51 percent for Ossoff.”
— Former Rep. Jack Kingston (R-GA), quoted by National Journal, on Republicans running in Georgia’s 6th congressional district.
A new RRH poll in Georgia’s 6th congressional district finds Jon Ossoff (D) in the lead in the special election with 39%, followed by Karen Handel (R) at 15%, Bob Gray (R) at 12%, Dan Moody (R) at 11%, and Judson Hill (R) at 10%.
If no candidate gets 50%, there will be a runoff between the top two finishers.
Atlanta Journal Constitution: “Candidates and outside groups have spent nearly $14 million on an unending ad blitz in the race to replace Rep. Tom Price’s suburban Atlanta seat, and that tally that will surely grow in the final days before Tuesday’s nationally-watched vote.”
“An analysis of the advertising obtained by the AJC shows the biggest spender by far is Democrat Jon Ossoff, a former Congressional aide who is eyeing a historic upset in next week’s vote.”
The Cook Political Report moves their rating for tomorrow’s special election in Kansas’ 4th congressional district from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
Meanwhile, next week’s special election in Georgia’s 6th congressional district is now rated a Toss Up.
“Even a single-digit finish in a seat like KS-04, with a Cook PVI score of R+15, would portend big trouble for Republicans in next week’s special primary election in GA-06, which has a PVI score of R+8. There is a real chance Democrat Jon Ossoff, who is dramatically outspending the rest of the field while the main GOP contenders turn on each other, could hit 50 percent on April 18 and avoid a runoff.”
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“Republicans are becoming increasingly concerned about their ability to hang on to former Republican congressman Tom Price’s seat here in a wealthy, suburban district where restive Democratic energy has been surging since November’s election,” the Washington Post reports.
“The race will test Democrats’ strength in the kind of districts they need to win if they hope to retake the House in 2018 — mainly suburban areas that have become more demographically diverse.”
Jon Ossoff (D) “has raised more than $8.3 million for his campaign to represent suburban Atlanta in Congress, the most significant sign yet that the political newcomer has become a national symbol of the resistance to President Donald Trump,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“Ossoff’s financial disclosure, to be released Thursday, shows he has $2.1 million on hand for the final stretch of the campaign.”
A new SurveyUSA poll finds Jon Ossoff (D) grabs 43% of likely voters. Republicans Karen Handel (15%), Bob Gray (14%), and Dan Moody (7%) round out the top four. All other candidates combined make up 15%, and an additional 7% are undecided.
Right now, Ossoff polls below the 50% needed to avoid a runoff.