Politico has seen three different private polls of the Republican presidential race in Indiana.
One survey shows Ted Cruz and Donald Trump in a statistical tie, 32% to 32%, with John Kasich at 14%.
A second survey also had Trump and Cruz tied, a change from three weeks earlier when Cruz had led outside the margin of error.
A third survey had Trump ahead of Cruz, outside the margin of error.
National Review: “Indiana has emerged as Cruz’s top priority. It awards 57 delegates, and Cruz’s brain trust believes a clean sweep there — or close to it — would erase Trump’s already-thin margin for error and effectively end his hopes of entering Cleveland with 1,237 delegates. Accordingly, they have been preparing to throw everything they have at the state, in an effort to reapply the formula that worked to such devastating effect in Wisconsin.”
“Still, Indiana, despite its demographic similarities, isn’t Wisconsin — and the perfect storm that lifted Cruz to victory there April 5 could prove impossible to recreate. The conservative talk-radio army that toppled Trump is nowhere to be found. There is no sign — yet — of a multimillion-dollar assault by outside groups on the GOP front-runner. And unlike Wisconsin, where Cruz was backed by much of the Republican establishment, Indiana’s top officials have not rallied to him.”
“Indiana hasn’t cast its ballots for president yet, but Donald Trump is already losing,” Politico reports.
“Republican Party insiders in the state will select 27 delegates to the national convention on Saturday, and Trump is assured to be nearly shut out of support… Indiana GOP insiders are working to engineer slates of delegates — three from each of nine congressional districts — that will turn their backs on Trump at a contested convention in July. Another 27 will be elected at a state committee meeting next week.”
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New York Times: “The most important state that no one is talking about is Indiana. The contest there comes one week after the Northeastern primaries, and it’s arguably the most balanced state left in the race. It has a mix of both Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump’s strengths, somewhat like the two states where they’ve fought two of their closest races so far, North Carolina and Missouri.”
“There isn’t much polling data in Indiana, but Mr. Cruz would be a favorite if he could get the level of support among non-Trump voters that he did in Wisconsin. It would be a closer race than Wisconsin; it’s the type of state where Mr. Trump ought to approach or exceed 40 percent of the vote, not the 35 percent he won in Wisconsin.”
“The catch, though, is that there’s no guarantee that Mr. Kasich will be that weak again.”
“I am going to try to rip the economic guts out of Indiana… I am one of the baddest enemies anybody can have. When I set a goal we do it. And we’re coming after Indiana big time.”
— Gov. Bruce Rauner (R), quoted by the Chicago Tribune.
Jeb Bush “appeared to modify his public comments about Indiana’s ‘religious freedom’ law on Wednesday in a closed-door Silicon Valley fund-raiser, telling a small group of potential supporters that a ‘consensus-oriented’ approach would have been better at the outset,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Bush’s comments were strikingly different in tone and in scope from what he said on Monday night in an interview with the conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt. In that interview he praised Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana for doing the ‘right thing’ and said that the new law was similar to one in Florida and to a law signed by President Bill Clinton in 1993.”
First Read: “The problem for Bush is that all of this only feeds the narrative that conservatives can’t trust him on these types of issues — compared with the rest of the GOP field. It also cuts against the identity he has created for himself — as someone who prefers running a general-election campaign instead of a race to please the base. It’s a tricky place to be in, because it ultimately ends up pleasing no one. “
First Read: “Here’s the bad news for Republicans: The political fight over religious freedom and gay rights that erupted in Indiana has forced Gov. Mike Pence to retreat; put the Republican 2016 contenders to the RIGHT of Pence; and further exposed that the GOP is in a different place on gay rights than the rest of the country. That includes big business. But here’s the good news for the party: They’re learning this lesson early — as opposed to having it play out next spring or even in the fall of 2016.”
Jonathan Bernstein: “The positions that play well in a small bubble of party politics and on Fox News may go wrong when the larger November 2016 electorate is exposed to them.”
Gov. Mike Pence (R) “just lobbed a grenade into the Republican presidential field,” Politico reports.
“The Indiana governor’s religious freedom law has ignited yet another controversial culture war debate that has Republican contenders juggling awkward questions about issues they would just as soon not touch.”
Washington Post: “Republicans had sought to avoid such disputes in 2016, but most top GOP presidential contenders quickly backed the bill, putting them out of step with growing national support for gay rights.”
Indiana faces “a growing backlash over a religious-freedom law that has drawn a hostile reaction from defenders of gay rights, who say it could result in discrimination based on sexual orientation,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Measures similar to that signed into law by Indiana Gov. Mike Pence this week are already in place at the federal level and in some 30 states. The law covers a relatively complex issue—setting a legal framework for those who claim a government rule or requirement is hampering their exercise of religion.”
The Indianapolis Star notes “the public firestorm has been fueled almost exclusively by critics — from gay rights activists to business leaders to celebrities— who see the law as a license to discriminate under the guise of religion. Oddly and conspicuously missing has been a strong counter-show of public support by the law’s backers, including evangelical Christians.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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