John Sides: “Yes, but to an extent far smaller than Obama’s winning margin. Other things equal, Obama’s vote share was about three-tenths of a point higher in counties where Obama had one field office and six-tenths of a point higher in counties where Obama had two or more field offices. (With relatively few counties having more than 2 offices, we did not try to estimate the effect of additional field offices beyond 2.) Romney’s field offices, by contrast, had an effect that was only half this size and could not be estimated with as much statistical confidence. This is consistent with the impression that Obama’s field operation was more effective than Romney’s. Essentially, our best guess is that Romney would have needed two offices in a county to match the effects of one of Obama’s offices, all else equal.”
Tell-All Offers Look Inside Romney Campaign
The Boston Globe notes the insider account of Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign by Gabriel Shoenfeld — to be published next week — is an attempt to persuade the Republican Party to jettison “the mechanical poll- and focus-group-driven approach embraced by the Romney campaign.”
“Romney’s campaign was marked by its discipline and the tightknit nature of top advisers. They have remained relatively loyal even in the aftermath of a stinging defeat, so a tell-all book from a former adviser could provide a provocative account of what went on behind the scenes.”
Bachmann in Talks to Settle Lawsuit
Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) “is engaged in settlement negotiations in a lawsuit alleging that senior members of her presidential campaign stole a proprietary e-mail list of home-school families from the computer of an Iowa campaign staffer,” the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Winning Hispanic Vote Isn’t Enough for Republicans
Byron York notes that Mitt Romney would have had to win an astonishing 73% of the Hispanic vote to prevail in the 2012 presidential election which “suggests that Romney, and Republicans, had bigger problems than Hispanic voters.”
“The most serious of those problems was that Romney was not able to connect with white voters who were so turned off by the campaign that they abandoned the GOP and in many cases stayed away from the polls altogether. Recent reports suggest as many as 5 million white voters simply stayed home on Election Day. If they had voted at the same rate they did in 2004, even with the demographic changes since then, Romney would have won.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Mitt Romney appeared like a kid who showed up for his science project and the teacher said, ‘Explain it,’ and Mitt couldn’t do it,” Sessions said. “His ‘dad,’ Paul Ryan, explained it to him, but Mitt didn’t get it… That’s why we lost the last election.”
— Rep. Pete Sessions (R-TX), in an interview with D Magazine.
Christie Has No Regrets for Clashing with GOP
New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie told MSNBC that “he didn’t regret his actions in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, even though they caused intra-party strife at a critical juncture in the 2012 presidential election.”
Said Christie: “I say the same thing to all my critics, no matter where they are in the spectrum, and that is that I’ve got a job to do. There was nothing else that ever crossed my mind in the days after.”
Black Voter Turnout Surpassed Whites in 2012
“America’s blacks voted at a higher rate than other minority groups in 2012 and by most measures surpassed the white turnout for the first time, reflecting a deeply polarized presidential election in which blacks strongly supported Barack Obama while many whites stayed home,” the AP reports.
“Had people voted last November at the same rates they did in 2004, when black turnout was below its current historic levels, Republican Mitt Romney would have won narrowly.”
Akin Talks Comeback
Former Rep. Todd Akin (R-MO) told KSDK-TV he would not rule out making a political comeback despite sinking his U.S. Senate campaign last year after he uttered the now famous words, “legitimate rape.”
Said Akin: “I’m not going to try to get even with anybody. If you start to blame everyone else for something that happened you didn’t like, it will destroy you. It will eat you alive.”
He added: “Really what it goes back to is whether the Republican Party is going to be run by the insiders, or run by the grassroots organization. That’s a question still to be determined.”
Koch Brothers Will Review 2012 Elections
Mother Jones obtained details of an upcoming Koch brothers retreat where they “will unveil a new plan to recruit and train political candidates who will advance their free-market worldview. Another priority is improving the conservative movement’s outreach to ‘growing demographics’ such as Latinos, young people, and women.”
“Another big item on the Kochs’ agenda is a long-awaited post-mortem on last year’s elections. Charles Koch announced in December that he was pushing back the winter retreat from January to late April so that an internal review of his circle’s election strategies could be completed.”
Romney Campaign in Reverse
First Read: “It used to be that being a businessman was a sterling credential on a political resume. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign, and his allies, annihilated that axiom in 2012, morphing Republican challenger Mitt Romney into an outsourcing, job-killing, vulture capitalist who had something to hide by not releasing (more of) his tax returns.”
“That playbook is now in full effect again. But this time it’s being employed by a Republican, Ken Cuccinelli, against a Democrat Terry McAuliffe, best known as a prolific Democratic fundraiser and Clinton ally.”
Axelrod Will Speak at Romney Retreat
Mitt Romney announced a series of high-profile speakers — including former Obama adviser David Axelrod — who will address a retreat that the former Republican presidential nominee is putting together in June, the Boston Globe reports.
“At various points during the campaign, Axelrod accused Romney of being secretive, dishonest, and ‘living on a different planet.'”
Obama Inaugural Took in Far Less Than Four Years Ago
President Obama’s inaugural committee “raised a little more than $43 million to put on the official festivities. That was $10 million less than the amount raised in 2009 for Obama’s first inauguration,” the Chicago Tribune reports.
“The smaller haul came despite the fact that — in a reversal from 2009 — this year’s inaugural committee accepted corporate donations, a decision that drew sharp criticism from campaign finance reform advocates. The 2013 committee also took individual donations of more than $50,000, unlike four years ago, and did not disclose the amount given by contributors until the report was filed with the Federal Election Commission on Saturday, three months after the event.”
Romney Strategist Says Campaign Was 2 Years Behind Obama
Warner Jones, digital program manager on Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign, told Campaigns and Elections that it would have taken Romney’s campaign an extra two years to match the digital infrastructure assembled by President Obama’s reelection effort.
“Romney’s digital team was a fraction of the incumbent’s–32 people compared to some 200 working for Obama’s digital operation. Moreover, almost half of the Romney digital operation was done by outside consultants–only 17 were in house.”
Former Bachmann Aide to Break Silence
GOP operative Andy Parrish, a former chief of staff to Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), “is expected to tell an Iowa Senate ethics panel that her 2012 presidential campaign made improper payments to its state chairman,” the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
“Parrish’s willingness to go public against his former employer and political mentor is likely to send shock waves through Minnesota GOP circles, where both he and his attorney are well-known figures.”
Did Being Black Cost Obama Votes?
A new Harvard study concludes that “racial animus in the United States appears to have cost Obama
roughly four percentage points of the national popular vote in both 2008
and 2012.”
Aides Hustle Bachmann Out of Press Conference
When the questioning at a press conference turned to Rep. Michele Bachmann’s (R-MN) ethics problems from her 2012 presidential campaign, “aides closed in blocking reporters and photographers and ushered her out of the room,” the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.
Why There are So Many Debates
Howard Kurtz: “The reason there were so many Republican debates last year–and more than 20 involving Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in the previous cycle–is that the candidates kept saying yes. And whose fault is that?”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I have to admit, being able to go back to our own life and going to the grocery store and shopping on my own is kind of nice to be by myself without a bunch of people hanging around with me. I like the life of being an American citizen. It’s good to live a normal life again.”
— Mitt Romney, interviewed on Dennis Miller’s radio show.
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