2017 Campaign

Who Will Actually Vote in Alabama?

A new SurveyMonkey poll finds that “minor differences in the methods used to model or select the likely electorate produce wildly varying estimates in Alabama. Data collected over the past week, with different models applied, show everything between an 8 eight percentage point margin favoring Jones and a 9 percentage point margin favoring Moore.”

“The same survey data also reveal the underlying tensions behind the volatile results: Alabama Democrats are angry and energized, while a significant but critical minority of Republicans are conflicted between a nominee they dislike and a President they support.”

“Jones leads by wide margins when we simply ask voters if they plan to vote… An alternative, which favors Moore, defines likely voters as those with a self-reported history of voting in lower turnout elections.”

Moore Accuser Admits She Altered Yearbook Inscription

“One of the women who accused Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore of making advances on her when she was a teen and he a local prosecutor admitted Friday to writing part of the yearbook inscription she offered as proof, a new crack in her story that gives Moore an opening to attack her credibility,” Fox News reports.

“Beverly Young Nelson told ABC News she added the date and place in the inscription in her high school yearbook that she and famed attorney Gloria Allred presented as proof the then-30-something Moore sought an inappropriate relationship with her in the late 1970s. Nelson still insisted that Moore wrote most of the message and signed the inscription, but said she made “notes” to it.”

Senate Republicans Keep Distance from Roy Moore

Sen. Cory Gardner (R-CO), the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told the Weekly Standard that the committee will never support Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R), who has been accused of sexual misconduct with teenage girls.

Said Gardner: “Roy Moore will never have the support of the senatorial committee. We will never endorse him. We won’t support him. I won’t let that happen. Nothing will change. I stand by my previous statement.”

Booker to Campaign for Jones In Alabama

Doug Jones (D) and his allies “are trying to finalize plans to bring in several high-profile current or former African American elected officials, including Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), to campaign for him this weekend in Alabama as he wages an aggressive final push to turn out black voters in a Tuesday special election with national stakes,” the Washington Post reports.

“Jones has been trying to piece together a delicate coalition built on support from core Democrats and some crossover votes from Republicans not drawn to their party nominee, Roy Moore (R). Crucial to that plan is strong turnout by African Americans, who make up about a quarter of Alabama’s electorate.”

Trump Believes Allegations Against Moore Are Bunk

President Trump “has privately told confidants over the past week that he firmly believes Roy Moore’s innocence and feels no hesitation at all about endorsing the embattled Alabama Senate candidate,” three sources close to the president tell the Daily Beast.

Said one White House official: “This is not something he’s struggling with.”

Weekly Standard: The administration explains its binary choice on Roy Moore.

Atlanta Mayor’s Race Heads to a Recount

“For the second time in eight years, the mayoralty of the South’s most influential city is likely to head to a recount,” the New York Times reports.

“Fewer than 800 votes separated Keisha Lance Bottoms and Mary Norwood after local officials tallied more than 92,000 ballots that were cast in a runoff election on Tuesday, according to unofficial returns. The margin was narrow enough that Ms. Norwood, seeking to become Atlanta’s first white mayor in more than 40 years, said she would ask for a recount.”

“But Ms. Bottoms and her allies declared victory early Wednesday.”

The Women Who Could Elect Roy Moore

Ron Brownstein: “If Republican Roy Moore wins next week’s Senate special election in Alabama, it will be largely because of his support among women.”

“More specifically, Moore’s ability to survive the allegations of sexually pursuing young girls, which have rocked his campaign, will likely turn on whether he can maintain his pre-scandal advantage among white women without a college education — even as their college-educated counterparts have moved toward Democrat Doug Jones in much bigger numbers than usual for deeply conservative Alabama, according to public and private polling in the race.”

Key takeaway: “In the Trump era, the class divide looks more powerful than the gender divide, especially among whites.”

Trump Endorsement Triggers Ad Buy for Roy Moore

“President Trump’s endorsement of Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore triggered a flood of financial support, as America First Action invested $1.1 million in advertising on television and other venues just days before a crucial special election,” the Washington Examiner reports.

“The super PAC, affiliated with Trump’s official outside group, the political nonprofit America First Policies, saw the endorsement as a signal to enter the race on Moore’s behalf.”

Meanwhile, The Hill reports the RNC has reversed course and will now also provide support to Moore.

Woman Has Evidence of Teenage Relationship with Moore

Debbie Wesson Gibson didn’t like when Alabama Senate candidate Roy Moore (R) denied their relationship when she was a teenager and he was 34, the Washington Post reports.

“Gibson said that after finding the scrapbook, she was not sure whether to make it public given the threats she received after publication of the original story. Then she heard what Moore said last week, she said, and contacted The Post.”

Said Gibson: “He called me a liar. Roy Moore made an egregious mistake to attack that one thing — my integrity.”