“After back-to-back losses in 2010 and 2014, immigration hardliner and former Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) plans to try again in 2018 to become Colorado’s next governor — a move spurred in part by his anger at Republicans for not protesting when a Colorado Springs resort canceled a white nationalist conference where he was supposed to speak,” the Denver Post reports.
Hensarling Won’t Run for Re-Election
Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) announced he will not seek reelection in 2018, marking the end of a political career defined by his long-running struggle to pare back government intervention in the economy, Politico reports.
“Hensarling, first elected to Congress in 2002, is in his last term as chairman of the powerful House Financial Services Committee, where he has spent years fighting with mixed success to roll back regulations and phase out federal programs.”
Congressional Candidate Says She Was ‘Weinsteined’
“A top congressional candidate in one of the nation’s marquee races for Democrats is accusing a political ally she once supported of exposing himself to her — and he’s countering that she might be lying to gain attention for her campaign,” Politico reports.
“The lurid dispute between Miami Beach City Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez and progressive activist Rafael Velasquez — a city commission candidate she had endorsed — marks the latest scandal nagging Florida Democrats amid the national debate about sexual harassment sparked by accusations from multiple women against movie producer Harvey Weinstein.”
Said Gonzalez: “I was ‘Harvey Weinsteined’ by Rafael Velasquez, the candidate I have been supporting and raising money for in the Miami Beach commission race.”
Mercers Go After Elizabeth Warren
Boston Globe: “This time the attacks are coming from someone new: Robert Mercer, a New York billionaire who is trying to remake American politics and who bankrolled former Trump chief strategist Stephen Bannon’s Republican revolution.”
“Mercer’s methods are anything but subtle. One political operative described Mercer’s approach to politics as a ‘trail of tears’ tactic, a reference to President Andrew Jackson’s forced removal of Native Americans from their homelands.”
“Given political realities — including Warren’s massive fund-raising advantage and Massachusetts’ liberal status — Mercer’s intent isn’t really to defeat her in the 2018 Senate race, according to three people with knowledge of the family’s intentions. Instead, Robert Mercer and his politically minded middle daughter Rebekah have a longer term goal: They want to sand down some of Warren’s gloss ahead of an expected presidential campaign in 2020.”
Hatch Tells Friends He Intends to Retire
Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT) “has privately told allies in Utah that he is planning to retire at the end of his term next year, and if he does, Mitt Romney intends to run for his seat,” The Atlantic reports.
“Sources close to both men said plans have already been set in motion for Hatch to retire and for Romney to run, but they cautioned that the timing of the announcements has not yet been finalized, and that either man could still change his mind. They spoke on condition of anonymity, because the plans are not yet public, and the subject is sensitive to Hatch.”
Enthusiasm Gap Should Worry Republicans
Amy Walter: “One thing that should scare Republicans—and make them think that the 2016 strategy may not be sufficient in 2018—is the enthusiasm gap. Back in 2016, Republicans were wary of Trump but they turned out and voted for him because they didn’t like the alternative and they were willing to accept the half-good versus the awful. Their ambivalence with Trump was outweighed by their disdain for Clinton. Two years later, they don’t have Obamacare repeal, a GOP-led Congress is getting little accomplished and the president continues to behave in a non-presidential way. With Hillary Clinton no longer on the ballot, the incentive to turn out is no longer quite as immediate or intense.”
“Meanwhile, Democrats, who were also less than thrilled about their nominee in 2016, are totally united in their disdain for Trump.”
For members: The Only Thing That Can Really Unify Republicans
Potential Florida Senate Race Is Deadlocked
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Florida shows Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) in a dead heat with possible challenger Gov. Rick Scott (R), 44% to 44%.
A new University of North Florida poll also showed the potential match-up virtually tied, with Nelson just ahead of Scott by 37% to 36%.
Democrats Open Huge Lead in Generic Ballot
A new CNN poll finds Democrats lead in the generic congressional ballot by a 16-point margin, 54% to 38%.
Washington Post: “If that were actually to turn out to be the case, of course, we’d be talking about a Democratic landslide — and almost definitely a Democratic takeover of the House that is so difficult given the map. But even if it’s just close to reality, it could be a very bad omen for the Republican Party in a historically tough first midterm election under a president of their own party.”
McConnell Allies Declare War on Steve Bannon
“Allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell declared open warfare on Wednesday against Stephen Bannon, the former White House chief strategist and leader of an insurrection aimed at defeating mainstream GOP candidates in next year’s midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.
“More than a year ahead of the 2018 congressional contests, a super PAC aligned with McConnell (R-KY) revealed plans to attack Bannon personally as it works to protect incumbents facing uphill primary fights. The effort reflects the growing concern of Republican lawmakers over the rise of anti-establishment forces and comes amid escalating frustration over President Trump’s conduct, which has prompted a handful of lawmakers to publicly criticize the president.”
Democrats Open Wide Lead In Generic Ballot
A new Fox News poll finds Democrats lead Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 15 points, 50% to 35%.
The poll also found that Trump’s approval rating is at 38%, a new low.
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Politics is not for sissies.”
— Former Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer (R), in a KNXV interview, on Sen. Jeff Flake’s (R-AZ) decision not to run again.
Too Early to Predict Replacements for Corker and Flake
James Hohmann: “The conventional wisdom is that Corker and Flake will both be replaced by intellectually pliable apparatchiks who will reliably support Trump. This is more likely than not.”
“But the changeover won’t happen for 14 months. Flake and Corker will be in office until January 2019. That’s an eternity in politics. It’s more than enough time to derail some of the more unconservative elements of the Trump agenda. Remember, Republicans only have a two-seat majority in the Senate.”
“Moreover, in this environment, it’s totally plausible that Democrats could pick up the open seats in both Arizona and Tennessee. If you add Nevada, and assume that Democratic incumbents up for reelection in states Trump carried find a way to survive (a big if), the GOP would lose the majority. If Republicans lose the Senate in 2018 — which was inconceivable just a few months ago — they will probably also lose the House. If Trump feels put upon now, he has no clue how miserable the second half of his term would be.”
Flake Was a Goner
Jonathan Swan: “Flake was dead. Everybody knew it, including Republican leadership and the NRSC. The public polls showed he was going to lose badly to Kelli Ward and I’m told the internal polling wasn’t much better.”
“The GOP has a commitment to defend incumbents but money is finite, and they’re not about to pour endless amounts of cash into a losing race. Some senior officials, including several people who considered themselves close to Flake, were blindsided by his anti-Trump book.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“We must stop pretending that the degradation of politics in our executive branch are normal, they’re not normal… it’s reckless, outrageous, and undignified… it’s dangerous to our democracy.”
— Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ), in a speech announcing he will not run for re-election.
Arizona Senate Race Still a ‘Toss Up’
With Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) announcing he will not run for re-election, the Cook Political Report keeps the Arizona Senate race as a “toss up.”
“Right now, there are more questions than answers. The most important is whether an open seat will attract a first-tier candidate who is acceptable to both establishment and Trump Republicans. Other candidates will undoubtedly get into the race now, but Republicans need one who brings some gravitas and fundraising ability to the contest. Today, the identity of that candidate (or candidates) is not obvious.”
Flake Will Not Run for Re-Election
“Condemning the nastiness of Republican politics in the era of President Trump, Sen. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) on Tuesday announced he will serve out the remainder of his term but will not seek re-election in 2018,” the Arizona Republic reports.
“The bombshell… will further roil Republican hopes of keeping the party’s 52-seat Senate majority in the midterm elections of Trump’s first term, when the president’s party historically loses seats in Congress.”
GOP Believes House Majority Rides on Tax Reform
Playbook: “Republicans in the House are increasingly bullish that they’ll pass their tax reform bill before the Thanksgiving recess. If everything goes right, it’s possible that can happen. They have 15 legislative days before Thanksgiving.”
“Republicans also says they believe that if they get tax reform through soon, they could stop a number of lawmakers from retiring out of frustration that Congress can’t get anything done. If a bunch of House Republicans head for the exits, it will make it that much harder for the GOP to keep control of the chamber.”
“Republican operatives and top GOP officials increasingly believe the 2018 midterm elections boils down to one simple data point: if the party does not deliver on a large-scale tax cut before the election, they will lose their House majority.”
Why Aren’t Democrats Further Ahead?
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