A new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) with a six-point edge over Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 45%.
Senate Map Gets Even Tougher for Democrats
Cook Political Report: “With November 6 just 11 days away, it seems that the overall Senate playing field won’t change much, although it appears that some of the races in Toss Up are getting even tighter, if that’s possible.”
“That said, it is getting more difficult to see a path to the majority for Democrats. With Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp heading for defeat in North Dakota, Democrats now need a net gain of three seats to win the majority. One way would be to hold the five Democratic seats in Toss Up, and pick up three of the four Republican-held seats in Toss Up. That’s just not a realistic scenario.”
“On the other side of the equation, for the first time in months it’s possible to see how Republicans can pick up one or two seats.”
Race Dominates Final Days of Midterm Campaigns
Associated Press: “The final stretch of the midterm campaign is increasingly dominated by debate over one of the most sensitive issues in American culture: race.”
“From New York to Florida, dog-whistle politics are showing up in ads and attacks from outside groups and, in some cases, GOP candidates. It’s playing out against the backdrop of President Donald Trump, who has tapped into racial anxiety with warnings of rampant violence in urban areas, voter fraud, a caravan of migrants and unknown ‘Middle Easterners’ threatening the U.S. southern border.”
“Democrats argue the GOP is using racially charged appeals to boost turnout among white voters.”
Amy McGrath Puts Up Her Closing Ad
Kentucky congressional candidate Amy McGrath’s (D) closing ad of the general election:
Playbook: “Democrats believe McGrath, who is running against Kentucky Rep. Andy Barr (R), has shown a path for how to run in a district that favors Republicans. And this ad, they say, exemplifies how Democrats in red districts should deal with President Trump.”
Kansas Voters Get Text Messages From ‘Trump’
“Kansas election officials are reviewing text messages claiming to be from President Donald Trump and telling residents that their early votes hadn’t been recorded, as Democratic leaders were quick Thursday to worry that they were part of efforts to ‘steal’ a close governor’s race,” the AP reports.
“State Elections Director Bryan Caskey said the Kansas secretary of state’s office received 50 or 60 calls about the texts Wednesday, mostly from the northeastern part of the state. Caskey said the office is trying to determine whether the texts broke a law before determining what to do next.”
Democrats Target Health Care In Closing Message
Reuters: “Democratic candidates for the U.S. Congress are closing out the campaign season with an ominous warning: telling voters millions of Americans could lose their health insurance or be forced to pay significantly more if Republicans win.“
”A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday shows why they are hammering the message: 58 percent of likely voters want to keep former President Barack Obama’s signature legislative achievement, the Affordable Care Act.”
Trump Fears Florida Wipeout
“The White House is planning a political rescue mission in Florida, fearing a wipeout in a key swing state next month that could damage President Trump’s reelection hopes,” Politico reports.
“Trump is expected to visit the state at least twice, according to two people familiar with the plans. Visits from several Cabinet members are likely, as well. Presidential text messages are being sent to Floridians who still haven’t cast their absentee ballots. And discussions are underway about blanketing the state with robocalls from Trump.”
Heitkamp Pulls In Enormous Haul
A new FEC filing finds that Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) raised $12.4 million in the first 17 days of October, including $7.5 million in small donor donations.
The donations all came in the days after she voted against Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court.
Bonus Quote of the Day
“I’m not calling Mr. DeSantis a racist. I’m simply saying the racists believe he’s a racist.”
— Florida gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum (D), quoted by the HuffPost, on challenger Ron DeSantis (R).
Quote of the Day
“They know if there’s any chance to flip the majority, it goes through Arizona. I’m literally a firewall to make sure that Chuck Schumer and his allies are not in charge.”
— Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ), quoted by Roll Call, arguing that her campaign is a firewall against a Democratic takeover of the Senate.
First Lady Won’t Hit Campaign Trail
“First lady Melania Trump will not appear at any campaign events in the final days leading up to the Nov. 6 midterm elections,” ABC News reports.
“This comes as President Donald Trump plans to hold at least 10 campaign rallies leading up to Election Day as he and the Republican Party seek to keep Democrats from taking control of Congress.”
Dallas Morning News Endorses O’Rourke
The Dallas Morning News endorsed Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) for U.S. Senate:
We have been at divisive political moments before, and we know those often end when leaders emerge who find ways to get along personally even when they are engaged in grand, tectonic political debates. That is one of the underappreciated stories of the 1980s, when President Ronald Reagan and House Speaker Tip O’Neill worked together. Even when they fought it out on tough issues, they fostered an enduring friendship.
For this reason more than any other, we favor U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke for U.S. Senate. The pivotal issue before our country is public leadership, and here we believe O’Rourke’s tone aligns with what is required now. This inclusive and hopeful tone, along with O’Rourke’s approach of starting with shared principles and working toward solutions, offset any policy differences we have with him. Leadership is more than policy, and whether we are addressing the very real challenges before us now turns on our ability to find points of agreement.
Grassley Warns Democrat Could Replace Him
Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA), who turned 85 years old in September, acknowledged the possibility his health could fail in the next few years and a Democratic Iowa governor would appoint a Democrat to succeed him in the Senate, the Des Moines Register reports.
Democrats Hold Big Lead In Most Competitive Districts
A new Cook Political Report/LSU poll finds Democrats hold a nine point lead over Republicans in the 72 most competitive House races, as rated by the Cook Political Report.
“Among voters who say President Trump will be a factor in their choice, more plan to use their vote so to show opposition to the President than to show support for the President, especially in competitive districts.”
Also interesting: “More people agree that Democrats should be elected to put a check on the President than agree that Republicans should be elected to keep the economy strong.”
Gingrich Singles Out CNN for Toxic Environment
At an Axios event, Newt Gingrich claimed the toxicity of the current political climate is “everyone’s fault,” pointing to social media and the “tribalization” of cable news — specifically CNN — as some of the main factors.
When asked why there was such a quick move on the right to call yesterday’s mail bombs a conspiracy, Gingrich answered, “Because it’s October.”
Trump Has Made the Election About Him
A new USA Today/Suffolk University Poll finds President Trump “driving the decisions of a majority of voters who say they are determined to send a message of either support or opposition to him. That dynamic is giving Democrats an edge as the crucial campaign heads into the final stretch.”
“A majority of those surveyed say Trump will have ‘a lot’ of impact on their congressional vote on Nov. 6 – 35% who are casting their ballot to show their opposition to him, 23% to show their support. Only one in four say the president doesn’t have at least some effect on their vote.”
Democrats now lead the generic congressional ballot by eight points, 51% to 43%.
Fanning the Flames
Mike Allen: “Pipe bombs sent to prominent Democrats were a wired manifestation of the toxic trajectory of the country’s politics, with President Trump and the media blaming each other for the worst terror-by-mail campaign of the post-9/11 era.”
With President Trump fanning fear ahead of the midterms a dozen days from now, the nation’s political discourse is on track to be even hotter and more volatile during the 2020 campaign than it was when he ran the first time. We are playing with fire — and there are piles of dry kindling stacked throughout America and American politics right now.”
For members: Is this the October Surprise?
Trump Will Campaign Non-Stop Until Election Day
Jonathan Swan: “President Trump will hold at least 10 midterms rallies between Oct. 31 and Election Day, with the possibility of bumping it up to two rallies each day in two different states, per three sources familiar with the planning. The White House and Secret Service are still working out the logistics.”
“This is a heavy load of campaigning for a sitting president, but it’s clear that Trump wants to overcome the historical pattern of presidents losing congressional seats in their first midterm election. And he’s viewed as the GOP’s best motivator to energize their base ahead of a tough election.”
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