Quote of the Day
“Do not wait for the perfect message, don’t wait to feel a tingle in your spine because you’re expecting politicians to be so inspiring and poetic and moving that somehow, ‘OK, I’ll get off my couch after all and go spend the 15-20 minutes it takes for me to vote.’ Because that’s part of what happened in the last election. I heard that too much.”
— Barack Obama, quoted by Politico, in his first public comments in months.
Inside the Democrats’ Supreme Court Strategy
Playbook: “Look for Senate Democrats to emphasize health care — pre-existing conditions — and abortion rights as they talk about the upcoming Supreme Court vacancy. Democrats are moving away from the idea that it’s not fair that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) gets to confirm another justice after refusing to consider Merrick Garland. They won’t talk much about pushing the vote until after the midterms. Instead, they plan to talk about what they consider to be the real-world impact of another conservative justice on the nation’s highest court.”
Politico: “Senate Democrats want the Supreme Court battle waged on the policy stakes, not the procedural tactics at play. But the party’s outraged base is prodding them to do everything they can to slow down Trump’s nominee, despite their paltry procedural options after the GOP quashed the filibuster for Supreme Court nominations last year.”
Putnam Staffers Admitted to Sexually-Charged Behavior
“Within a one-year period, beginning in early 2015, three staffers in Florida Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam’s office admitted to sexual harassment and watching pornography on a work computer,” Politico reports.
“In all three cases, which are detailed in separate inspector general reports, Putnam, who is now a Republican candidate for governor, carried out some form of punishment. Two of the employees are still with the department, which has about 3,650 employees, while the third left for unrelated reasons.”
The Electoral Ramifications of a Supreme Court Fight
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Any Democrat who votes for this new nominee will anger a certain percentage of Democrats even in very red states. These Democratic voters may choose not to show up at the polls or may stop donating money to express their displeasure. Or, if the red state Democrats vote against Trump’s pick, they might energize more Republican presidential voters to turn out and support their GOP opponents. In McConnell’s calculation, heads they lose, tails they lose.”
“McConnell knows all this. He doesn’t care all that much how Democratic senators end up voting on the justice-nominee so long as he can keep his own caucus together. Assuming a vote before the midterm — McConnell said the Senate will vote on a replacement ‘this fall’ — the majority leader will attempt to make each red state Democrat pay a dear price on Election Day whether they vote for or against the nominee.”
Rick Klein: “The Democrats have a waking nightmare along with a bad hand that they could play into something worse. What may help their chances in House races may hurt them in the Senate, with an already restive base primed for the fight of all fights with Trump on any number of fronts.”
‘Born to Run’
After losing the Democratic primary in New York’s 14th congressional district, Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY) picked up his guitar and dedicated a song to the victor, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D).
6 GOP Incumbents Ousted in Oklahoma
“At least six Republican incumbents were bounced from office during Oklahoma’s primary election, including several who were targeted by pro-education groups,” the AP reports.
“Tuesday’s primary election was the first test for many of the nearly 100 teachers running for office in Oklahoma after a year that saw tens of thousands of educators walk off their job for two weeks to protest dwindling funding for schools.”
Democrats Hold Lead In Key New Jersey District
A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey’s 11th congressional district finds Mikie Sherrill (D) with a slight lead over Jay Webber (R), 40% to 38% among likely voters.
“Neither candidate is particularly well-known at this point in the race, but Democratic enthusiasm is giving this traditionally red district a purplish hue. The poll also finds that the GOP tax reform plan does not play all that well in one of the richest congressional districts in the country.”
“The Democrat’s advantage widens when applying two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Sherrill a 44% to 40% lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic precincts gives Sherrill a 45% to 39% lead.”
When You Found Out You Won
This is the moment Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D), a 28-year-old running her first campaign, discovered she had ousted veteran Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY) in New York’s 14th congressional district.
Battleground Voters Want Congress to Check Trump
“Voters in three key Senate battleground states prefer the next Congress to be a check on President Donald Trump rather than a booster for his policy priorities, and only about a third say Trump deserves to be re-elected,” according to new polls of Arizona, Florida and Ohio conducted by NBC News/Marist.
Democrats Use Donovan’s Statements In New Ad
Democrats are already up with an ad using Rep. Dan Donovan’s (R-NY) primary statements against him: “I’ve supported the president 90 percent of the time in my votes… I voted seven times to repeal Obamacare.”
Crowley’s Defeat Is a Message to Democrats
David Wasserman: “The Tea Party waves of 2010 and 2014 didn’t topple many House GOP incumbents in primaries, but they did take out House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Much in the same way, the hardcore Resistance took out Crowley but could help power Democrats to gains this fall.”
“Crowley’s exit begins the conversation about the next generation of House Democratic leadership anew. Less senior members likely to receive more attention include Reps. Cheri Bustos (IL-17), Joe Kennedy III (MA-04), Linda Sanchez (CA-38), Katherine Clark (MA-05), Seth Moulton (MA-06), Ruben Gallego (AZ-07) and others. And, any aspirants will need to be on good terms with the party’s increasingly dominant progressive base.”
Mike DeBonis: “Crowley loss does not sound like a win for Pelosi/Hoyer. It sounds like Taps for the whole Dem hierarchy. Wake-up call for a party that has put off a generational change for too long.”
Crowley Defeated In Primary
Washington Post: “The fourth-ranking Democrat in the House has lost his bid for another term: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old activist who ran on abolishing ICE and making Medicare a universal program, defeated Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY) in an upset.”
“Crowley is the first incumbent Democrat to lose renomination since 2014, when a Massachusetts Democrat was brought down by scandal. Crowley, who was first elected in 1998, had grown his profile inside the party and faced no personal controversies.”
New York Times: “The race was not close. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez had more than 57 percent of the vote, with almost all precincts reporting.”
Jealous Will Take on Hogan In Maryland
“Former NAACP chief Ben Jealous declared victory in Maryland’s Democratic primary for governor Tuesday, promising to deliver a progressive agenda that makes college free, legalizes marijuana and raises the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour,” the Baltimore Sun reports.
“Bolstered by support in the Baltimore region, spending from outside groups and an aggressive union-backed turnout machine, Jealous emerged from the six-way primary as Democrats’ bet to take on popular Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in November.”
Grimm Fails In Comeback Attempt
Rep. Dan Donovan (R-NY) “successfully fended off a fierce challenge from his predecessor, Michael Grimm, avoiding the ignominious fate of losing re-election to a convicted tax cheat,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Grimm had resigned his Staten Island seat in 2014 and pleaded guilty to felony tax evasion, serving seven months in prison. But not long after he was paroled, Mr. Grimm began plotting his comeback bid to unseat Mr. Donovan, the former Staten Island district attorney who had replaced him in Washington.”
Tonight’s Primary Results
There are primaries or runoff elections in seven states today — New York, Utah, Maryland, Colorado, Oklahoma, Mississippi and South Carolina.
Here are the poll closing times:
- South Carolina (runoffs) at 7 p.m. ET
- Maryland, Mississippi (runoffs) and Oklahoma at 8 p.m. ET
- Colorado and New York at 9 p.m. ET
- Utah at 10 p.m. ET
Leave your reactions to the results in the comments section.
Nelson Leads In Florida
A new NBC News/Marist poll shows Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) with a four-point lead over Gov. Rick Scott (R) in the race for U.S. Senate, 49% to 45%.
Sinema Leads In Arizona
A new NBC News/Marist poll in Arizona finds Kyrsten Sinema (D) leading Martha McSally (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 38%.
Sinema also leads Kelli Ward, 48% to 38%, and tops Joe Arpaio (R), 57% to 32%.
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