A OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump by 10 points in the presidential race, 52% to 42%.
Biden Campaign Forming ‘Legal War Room’
“Joe Biden is establishing a major new legal operation, bringing in two former solicitors general and hundreds of lawyers in what the campaign billed as the largest election protection program in presidential campaign history,” the New York Times reports.
“Legal battles are already raging over how people will vote — and how ballots will be counted — this fall during the pandemic, and senior Biden officials described the ramp-up as necessary to guard the integrity of a fall election already clouded by President Trump’s baseless accusations of widespread fraud.”
Trump’s Reckless, Atrocious, Deceitful Rally
Tim Miller watched President Trump’s “unmasked, indoor superspreader event in Henderson, Nevada on Sunday night.”
“For those who have been beaten down by the Trumpian disaster porn, rallies such as this don’t really make a mark any longer. The cable networks and even the three C-SPANs landed on the BORRRRING side of the ledger: None of them chose to air the event. And for political junkies and Trump-watchers, these rallies increasingly have the feel of a boring nostalgia act with a lead singer halfheartedly crooning his old hits. And there’s something to be said for that.”
“But it is important to take a moment to shake yourself free from the blunting effect of the orange Trumpian film that has subsumed our daily lives (and here in northern California, our atmosphere). Seen with fresh eyes, the Henderson rally was truly a shocking and unimaginably wheels-off undertaking given that it came amid a pandemic that is still killing a thousand Americans a day and with wildfires making much of the West Coast uninhabitable.”
Quote of the Day
“It’s an extraordinary flip of the mood in the country in a short amount of time… that portends change. Whether voters hold Trump or Republicans in the House or Senate accountable or not, they’re still going to vote for change.”
— GOP pollster Neil Newhouse, quoted by Vox.
Sisolak Slams Trump as ‘Reckless and Selfish’
Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) slammed President Trump Sunday night for violating state rules by holding a campaign rally indoors with thousands of people, NBC News reports.
Said Sisolak: “This is an insult to every Nevadan who has followed the directives, made sacrifices, and put their neighbors before themselves. It’s also a direct threat to all of the recent progress we’ve made and could potentially set us back.”
The governor said of Trump, “As usual, he doesn’t believe the rules apply to him” and accused the president of “reckless and selfish actions.”
How Biden’s Campaign Is Trying to Avoid Virus
Politico: “Joe Biden’s chartered airplanes and SUVs are meticulously sprayed with disinfectant and scrubbed. The microphones, lecterns and folders he uses are wiped down in the moments before his arrival. News reporters covering the campaign have their temperature taken. People he meets are scanned in advance with thermometer wands and guests at his events are cordoned off in precise locations mapped out with a tape measure.”
“The former vice president is seldom without a mask when in public or around anyone other than his wife, Dr. Jill Biden. Access to their home is limited to only a few staffers — and when they’re inside, each wears a mask, including Biden. The level of discipline is such that at times when someone stops to take a drink of water, that person will turn their head away from the others to reduce the chances of scattering droplets.”
“With more than 6 million people infected and nearly 200,000 dead from the coronavirus, the former vice president is taking no chances with his safety. He operates in a sanitizer-saturated bubble within the traditional presidential campaign bubble, an environment designed and obsessively cultivated by staff in an attempt to protect him from a possible encounter with the virus.”
Trump to Hold Indoor Rally Violating Nevada Rules
President Trump plans to hold a fully indoor rally, where thousands are expected, for the first time in three months on Sunday in Henderson, Nevada, CNN reports.
“The City of Henderson has issued a compliance letter and verbal warning to the event organizer that the event as planned would be in direct violation of the governor’s COVID-19 emergency directives. Specifically, gatherings of more than 50 people in a private or public setting is prohibited.”
Biden Will Run Ads During Every Football Game
Joe Biden’s campaign has purchased at least one advertising slot for every game between now and Election Day, NPR reports.
The news comes as Biden’s campaign has closed in on the Trump campaign’s formerly-large cash advantage in recent months.
How Conspiracy Theories Are Shaping the Election
Time: “This matters not just because of what these voters believe but also because of what they don’t. The facts that should anchor a sense of shared reality are meaningless to them; the news developments that might ordinarily inform their vote fall on deaf ears. They will not be swayed by data on coronavirus deaths, they won’t be persuaded by job losses or stock market gains, and they won’t care if Trump called America’s fallen soldiers ‘losers’ or ‘suckers,’ as the Atlantic reported, because they won’t believe it. They are impervious to messaging, advertising or data. They aren’t just infected with conspiracy; they appear to be inoculated against reality.”
Minnesota Seemed Ripe for a Trump Breakout
“If any state is positioned to go from blue to red in 2020, to embrace the fullness of Trumpology and provide the president some much-needed Electoral College insurance, it is Minnesota,” the New York Times reports.
“The state’s northern and eastern regions have grown more conservative over the years, and Republicans won two House seats in the state during the 2018 midterm elections — a rare bright spot during an election characterized by an anti-Trump wave. Going into 2020, conservatives crowed that the issues that defined the state’s politics were straight from Mr. Trump’s playbook: in particular, a robust refugee relocation program that has inspired a white backlash in certain places outside the Twin Cities.”
“Mr. Biden’s advantage is driven by an erosion of Republican support for Mr. Trump in the state’s metropolitan areas, continuing the trend of suburban voters’ fleeing a president in crisis.”
Trump Running Out of Time
John Haywood: “With support hovering around 43% nationally, Trump needs a chunk of new supporters to overcome Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s lead. He has just more than seven weeks to lure them. And he faces a significant obstacle that he didn’t in 2016: a smaller pool of available prospects.”
“Outsized attention to Trump’s base, most conspicuously the maskless true-believers who pack his rallies despite the coronavirus pandemic, obscures the reality that they number too few to give him a second term. Though Trump eked out an electoral victory four years ago with 46.1% of the popular vote, he cannot repeat that feat with 43%.”
The Religious Group that Could Swing the Election
Politico: “In 2016, Mormons rejected Donald Trump in numbers unheard of for a Republican nominee — viewing the thrice-married, immigrant-bashing Republican as an affront to their values.”
“In 2020, the president is going all-out to change Mormons minds — a little-noticed effort that could make or break him in Arizona and Nevada, home to more than a half-million Latter-day Saints combined. Joe Biden’s campaign, sensing an unlikely opening for a Democrat, is also targeting Mormons in the pair of Western swing states.”
Most Believe Biden Has More Respect for Military
A new ABC News/Ipsos poll found that 61% of respondents said Biden had more respect for the U.S. military, compared to 37% who said Trump had more respect.
Warren Buffett Silent So Far
Wall Street Journal: “Billionaire investor Warren Buffett was an active fundraiser and campaigner for the past two Democratic presidential nominees. In 2020, he’s yet to become publicly involved with former Vice President Joe Biden’s bid to reclaim the White House for Democrats.”
“His absence is notable for several reasons, including that he’s the most famous resident of Nebraska’s Second Congressional District. The Omaha-area enclave, which features one of this year’s most competitive House races, awards one Electoral College vote as part of a system used only by Nebraska and Maine that is unlike the winner-take-all methods elsewhere.”
Why National Polling Still Matters
Harry Enten: “Let’s state it up front: winning the popular vote means nothing in and of itself. You only become president if you win the Electoral College.”
“That said, the national polling matters a lot. We have a ton of it, unlike in a number of swing states. It’s more accurate than the state polling on average. Most importantly, we have a fairly good idea of what Biden’s margin needs to be nationally in order to win in the Electoral College.”
Key takeaway: “If Biden wins by more than 5 points nationally, he’s almost certainly going to win enough electoral votes to get to at least 270 and take the Electoral College. There’s simply little record of a difference between the margin in the key swing states and the national vote being greater than 5 points.”
“If Biden wins by somewhere between 3 and 5 points nationally, he’ll be the clear favorite in the Electoral College, even if there is some non-negligible chance Trump could emerge victorious.”
Biden Holds Small Lead in Arizona
A new CBS News/YouGov poll in Arizona shows Joe Biden just ahead of Donald Trump among likely voters, 47% to 44%.
A new Gravis Marketing poll has Biden ahead among likely voters, 50% to 48%.
Trump Mocks Masks While Holding Packed Rallies
“Amid a raging pandemic, President Trump has repeatedly choreographed a scene experts warn could lead to illness or even death: Thousands of supporters jammed together, mostly without masks, cheering for a candidate who mocks precautions against the novel coronavirus and has vowed to ignore his own health advisers,” ABC News reports.
“Fighting for reelection amid the COVID-19 outbreak, Trump enters the final stretch of the election increasingly ridiculing and ignoring coronavirus-related restrictions while holding packed campaign rallies across the country.”
“Health experts, meanwhile, warn a bad flu season colliding with the coronavirus could be a devastating double threat to the country.”
Biden’s National Lead Shrinks
A new Fox News poll shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally among likely voters by just five points, 51% to 46%.
Said pollster Daron Shaw: “Despite the often tumultuous events of the day, campaigns are often about partisan homecoming. Trump may be benefiting from this dynamic. It looks like Republican-leaning undecided voters have come around, both in the ballot and his job ratings.”
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