An internal poll in Georgia conducted for the U.S. Senate campaign of Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) finds President Trump just ahead of Joe Biden in a general election match up, 48% to 46%, with another 6% undecided.
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Candidates Scramble to Fund Payroll in Delayed Primaries
Wall Street Journal: “More than a dozen states have delayed nominating contests in presidential and down-ballot races due to the new coronavirus outbreak, but Ohio’s move in mid-March was the most jarring for campaigns—the state’s governor decided to postpone in-person voting the night before the scheduled primary date.”
“Many campaigns budget to the primary since fundraising typically gets easier once a candidate becomes the nominee and tends to receive more help from the political party.”
Biden’s Money Problems Just Got Worse
Daily Beast: “The Democratic Party’s decision to postpone this summer’s presidential nominating convention over concerns about the longevity of the coronavirus outbreak has put a pot of money a bit further out of reach for the presumptive Democratic nominee. That’s because instead of getting access to funds for the general election on the initial convention date—July 16—Biden must wait until mid-August, when the convention now is planned to go forward in Milwaukee.”
Peters Leads In Michigan Senate Race
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Michigan finds Sen. Gary Peters (D) leading John James (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 45% to 38%.
Buttigieg to Form PAC Called ‘Win the Era’
“Pete Buttigieg, who rose from obscurity to narrowly win the Iowa caucuses before dropping out of the Democratic presidential primary last month, has taken some of the first steps toward outlining his post-campaign future,” the New York Times reports.
“Buttigieg is forming both a political action committee, called Win the Era, and an affiliated nonprofit group.”
“Donors have been told that the PAC will support and endorse candidates who represent generational change, specifically in down-ballot races, in hopes of helping to create a “pipeline” for the party. The groups will also promote issues such as climate change and cybersecurity.”
Kentucky House Race Heats Up After Massie’s Lonely Stand
“Top Republicans warned Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) that he was sabotaging his career. Supercharged fundraising numbers in his GOP primary race show they may have been on to something.” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The Kentucky Republican, who angered President Trump when he forced House members to return to D.C. to pass the $2 trillion stimulus bill, is now back home in Garrison, Ky., fighting to stay in Congress ahead of the state’s June primary. Lawmakers of both parties called him reckless, and President Trump termed him a ‘third rate Grandstander’ and said he should be kicked out of the GOP.”
Said Massie: “I thought I might be signing my political death sentence. But I did it for principled reasons.”
Biden Leads In New National Polls
Two new national polls:
- Grinnell College/Selzer: Biden 47%, Trump 43%
- The Economist/YouGov: Biden 46%, Trump 42%
A ‘Shit Sandwich’ In Florida
Politico: “Already anxious about Trump’s chances in the nation’s biggest swing state, Republicans now are dealing with thousands of unemployed workers unable to navigate the Florida system to apply for help. And the blowback is directed straight at Trump’s top allies in the state, Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Rick Scott.”
“Privately, Republicans admit that the $77.9 million system that is now failing Florida workers is doing exactly what Scott designed it to do — lower the state’s reported number of jobless claims after the great recession.”
Said one DeSantis adviser: “It’s a shit sandwich, and it was designed that way by Scott. It wasn’t about saving money. It was about making it harder for people to get benefits or keep benefits so that the unemployment numbers were low to give the governor something to brag about.”
Hunter Biden Probe Moves Forward In Senate
“A key Senate committee is vowing to press forward with its investigation targeting former Vice President Joe Biden’s son Hunter, despite logistical challenges posed by the global coronavirus pandemic,” Politico reports.
“The probe, which Democrats vigorously oppose, has fueled tension among the Senate’s ranks, even breaking out into a rare and previously unreported verbal altercation between senators during a classified briefing.”
Legal Battle Underway That Could Decide Election
“President Trump’s political operation is launching a multimillion-dollar legal campaign aimed at blocking Democrats from drastically changing voting rules in response to the coronavirus outbreak,” Politico reports.
“In the past several weeks, the reelection campaign and the RNC have helped to oversee maneuvering in a handful of battleground states with an eye toward stopping some Democratic efforts to alter voting laws, and to bolster Trump. The mobilization is being closely coordinated with Republicans at the state and local levels.”
“The Trump campaign and RNC are actively engaged in litigation in Wisconsin, where the parties are at loggerheads over an array of issues including voter identification, and in New Mexico, where the battle involves vote-by-mail. The skirmishing has also spread across key states like Pennsylvania and Georgia, where the well-organized Trump apparatus has fought over changes that could sway the outcome of the election.”
Trump Campaign Calls Sessions ‘Delusional’
“President Trump’s campaign is demanding that Jeff Sessions, the former Attorney General, stop attaching himself to the president in his effort to win back his old Senate seat in Alabama, after Mr. Sessions distributed a campaign mailer that mentioned the president 22 times,” the New York Times reports.
From an unusual letter to the Sessions campaign: “The Trump campaign has learned that your U.S. Senate campaign is circulating mailers like the one I have enclosed, in which you misleadingly promote your connections to and ‘support’ of President Trump… The enclosed letter and donor form in fact mention President Trump by name 22 times. The letter even makes the delusional assertion that you are President ‘Trump’s #1 supporter.”
Biden Asks Trump Campaign to Remove Video
“Joe Biden’s campaign is calling on President Trump’s re-election campaign to pull a ‘wildly irresponsible’ video from Twitter that splices in sound to falsely depict Biden calling the coronavirus a hoax — and they’re asking Twitter to remove the ad if the president’s campaign won’t,” Axios reports.
Plouffe Predicts ‘Historic Turnout’ by Trump Supporters
Former Obama campaign manager David Plouffe predicted on a Fox News podcast that supporters of President Trump will turn out “at a historical level” on Election Day.
Said Plouffe: “You look at the economic situation and say, ‘How can an incumbent win in that?’ But, you know, no one’s blaming Trump for the damage. I think if you can lay his crisis response at his feet and connect that to the economy, I do think that’s some headwind he’s got to run into.”
He added: “And I think he’s going to turn out voters almost at a historical level on his behalf, so that makes him very dangerous if you’re Joe Biden.”
Democrats Delay Convention to August
“The Democratic National Committee on Thursday postponed its national convention because of the coronavirus, moving it from mid-July to mid-August. The delay is the largest political concession so far to the public health crisis caused by the virus, which has led to the cancellation of hundreds of state and local conventions from both parties,” the New York Times reports.
“The convention will still be held in Milwaukee, as planned, the week of Aug. 17, officials said, a week before Republicans plan to gather in Charlotte, N.C., to re-nominate President Trump.”
The Electoral Map Gets Smaller
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball shows only four states as Toss Ups in the presidential election: Arizona, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
“While the public health crisis has complicated the president’s path to a second term, we think it’s premature to make dramatic changes to our assessment of the presidential election. We’ve long thought the president’s chances of reelection have been around 50-50. In light of recent developments, it may be that the president’s odds are a little bit lower now, but we don’t think the data suggest going further than that at this time.”
Our consensus map of the top forecast still has five Toss Ups, adding Florida to the mix.
Mark Kelly Now Favored In Arizona Senate Race
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves moving the special Senate election in Arizona from Toss-up to Leans Democratic.
Mark Kelly (D) has consistently led appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) in polling, and not just by a little: four surveys in March showed Kelly up anywhere from five to 12 points, a better margin than Biden enjoys in the state (he has led Trump there in polling, but by smaller margins).
Biden Floats Moving Convention to August
Joe Biden told the Tonight Show that he expects Democrats to push the convention back at least a month as health officials battle the spread of coronavirus.
Said Biden: “I doubt whether the Democratic convention is going to be able to be held in mid July, early July. I think it’s gonna have to move into August.”
He added: “And then, even then, the Republican and Democratic conventions are going to have to… we just have to be prepared for the alternative.”
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